Politics1
The Most Comprehensive Guide to U.S. Politics ... since 1997
search POLITICS1:

BLOG ARCHIVE: NOVEMBER 1-15, 2008.

WEEKEND NEWS UPDATE.

BEGICH WIDENS LEAD TO 1,022; OHIO CD-15 RACE HEADS TO COURT; CALIFORNIA CD-4 MARGIN NARROWS.

ALASKA. The vote counting continues to widen Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich's (D) lead over incumbent US Senator Ted Stevens (R). With 90% of the vote tallied, Begich widened his lead to 1,022 votes on Friday. There are about 24,000 ballots left to be counted, with the bulk of them from Begich's base in the Anchorage area. State officials plan to complete the counting on Tuesday. Stevens was convicted last month in federal court on felony political corruption charges. Stevens and his allies are working the phones to ensure he survives Senator Jim DeMint's (R-SC) motion next week to expel Stevens from the Senate Republican Caucus. Some Senators plan to oppose the expulsion if Stevens is defeated, allowing him to finish his current term on January 4 -- but they say they would vote to expel him from office if he is re-election. "First of all, I hope Senator Stevens is successful in being re-elected. And assuming that he is, I intend to support any motion to remove him," said US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) to Roll Call.

OHIO - CD-15: The close race State Senator Steve Stivers (R) and Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) is now in the hands of federal court judge and Secretary of State Jennifer Bruner (D). Stivers leads Kilroy by only 149 votes -- but 1,667 Franklin County voters still have an opportunity to have their uncounted ballots become valid. According to the Columbus Dispatch, the fight is whether 1,667 voters submitted timely absentee ballots but forgot to either sign their ballot envelopes or supply a driver's license or Social Security number are allowed to cure the defect. These same issues also apparently apply to 27,000 provisional ballots from Franklin County that have yet to be tallied. The lawsuit -- brought on behalf of Stivers' campaign -- argues that the defect is fatal and incurable, and thus all 1,667 ballots at issue should be invalidated. The Franklin County Board of Elections split 2-2 down party lines on the issue. An emergency hearing in federal court is set for Saturday morning. Bruner removed the action from state court to federal court on Friday, and Stivers' campaign is trying to convince the federal judge to send it back to state court. If the courts -- federal or state -- ultimately decline to decide the issue by deferring to state election officials, then Bruner will get to cast the tie-breaking vote on Tuesday. Bruner has already stated she believes the ballot defects may be cured by the individual voters.

CALIFORNIA - CD-4. According to the Sacramento Bee, State Senator Tom McClintock (R) saw his margin drop by a third on Friday. He now leads retired USAF veteran Charlie Brown (D) by just 569 votes. Thousands of ballots still remain to be counted.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.15.08 | Permalink |

FRIDAY NEWS UPDATE.

OBAMA RESIGNS SENATE SEAT; HILLARY ON SEC OF STATE SHORT-LIST; MN RECOUNT BOARD NAMED.

OBAMA TRANSITION. Barack Obama announced Thursday he will resign his Senate seat effective Sunday. Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) is in no rush to fill the vacancy. The New York Times reported Blagojevich plans to name a new Senator "around Christmas." The move means Obama will not return to the Senate for next week's lame duck session. It also means Obama will not play an official role in the Democratic Caucus' decision on how to punish Joe Lieberman for his prominent role in the McCain campaign and at last summer's Republican National Convention. News reports indicate Obama's surrogates are trying to forge a deal that would preserve Lieberman's committee chairmanship and keep him aligned with the Senate Dems. They believe they can work with Lieberman, who agrees with Obama on most issues -- excluding the Iraq War. The Caucus may symbolically punish Lieberman by stripping him of one of his subcommittee chairmanships. In other news, NBC said Hillary Clinton is being seriously considered for Secretary of State in the Obama Cabinet. NBC reported Clinton quietly traveled to Chicago on Thursday for what she claimed was "personal business." Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack (D) is believed to be the strong frontrunner for Agriculture Secretary.

MINNESOTA. County election officials have secured all ballots and voting machines under lock and key until the start next Wednesday of the statewide hand recount of ballots. Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (D) on Thursday named the four others who will serve with him on the state canvas board. He selected two Minnesota Supreme Court Justices appointed by Governor Tim Pawlenty (R), a county court judge who was elected as a non-partisan candidate, and a county court judge appointed by former Governor Jesse Ventura (Independence). Ritche said the composition of the five person board will ensure the recount is "extraordinarily nonpartisan." A spokesman for US Senator Norm Coleman (R) praised the board: "The people of this state should feel good about who's on the panel." Challenger Al Franken's (D) campaign also praised the choices, saying it proved the recount process was going to be fair. Ritchie set December 5 as the target date for counties to complete the recount.

CALIFORNIA - CD-4. Roughly 36,000 ballots remain to be counted -- and State Senator Tom McClintock (R) saw his margin drop yet again. He now leads retired USAF veteran Charlie Brown (D) by 815 votes as of the end of counting on Thursday.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.14.08 | Permalink |

THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE.

ABSENTEES GIVE BEGICH 814 VOTE LEAD; MN & CA RACES ALSO NARROW; HARDBALL SENATE RACE PREVIEW; ... AND SOME GOOD NEWS FOR POLITICS1 FANS.

ALASKA. The Wednesday counting of absentee, provisional and military ballots entirely wiped out US Senator Ted Steven's (R) Election Day lead of 3,257 votes. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) now leads Stevens by 814 votes -- out of a total of roughly 265,000 votes counted. Neither man was willing to yet make any statement claiming victory. The state still needs to count at least 15,000 questioned ballots and an estimated 25,000 absentees, according to the Anchorage Daily News. GOP pollster David Dittman -- who polled for Stevens' campaign -- told the newspaper he expected "Begich's lead would widen, but not drastically, as the remaining votes are counted." Absentee ballots mailed from within the US and postmarked by election day will count if the state receives them by this Friday. Ballots timely postmarked and mailed from overseas and military bases must be received by November 19 to be counted. (FYI: No change in the re-election results for Congressman Don Young (R), who scored a 50% to 44% victory.)
MINNESOTA. US Senator Norm Coleman's (R) lead dwindled further. He now leads humorist Al Franken (D) by 205 votes. The statewide hand recount will take a 2-3 weeks to complete.
OHIO - CD-15. Nothing new today on this undecided race.
CALIFORNIA - CD-4. As officials tabulate the remaining 40,000 ballots, this race is also slightly narrowing. State Senator Tom McClintock (R) held a 928 vote advantage over retired USAF veteran Charlie Brown (D) as of the end of counting on Wednesday.

PENNSYLVANIA - 2010. Lots of undecideds to fight over if the new PPP-D poll is any indication. US Senator Arlen Specter (R) leads TV talk show host Chris Matthews (D) by a vote of 40% to 27%. Keystone State political insiders tell Politics1 that they now believe Matthews is likely to run.

A MESSAGE FROM RON. I listened to your emails and comments about my upcoming hiatus from writing these daily news updates. Several of you asked if it would be possible to have someone else post the daily news updates during my break ... and I think I found someone. At least, I'm willing to give it a try (which is pretty amazing, considering what a control freak I've been about many aspects of this site). When I take my break, Vin Gopal will take a shot at writing the daily updates. Vin is a former press aide to Senator Ted Kennedy, and was also the national campaign manager for Dennis Kucinich's 2008 Presidential campaign. So yes, Vin is another political leftist like me. But he thinks he can keep to the same (generally) neutral tone in reporting news while segretating his opinion into items labeled as editorials. Once these final '08 congressional races are resolved, I'll hand the front page helm over to Vin for a while. So, does that work for you?
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.13.08 | Permalink |

WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

UPDATES ON THE STILL-UNDECIDED ALASKA, CALIFORNIA, MINNESOTA AND OHIO RACES.

MINNESOTA: A pre-recount "audit" in Ramsey County conducted this week -- which was merely a random review of 7,700 ballots -- reduced US Senator Norm Coleman's (R) lead over humorist Al Franken (D) by 2 votes, dropping the difference to just 219 votes. This statewide recount will take a few weeks to complete.
ALASKA: State officials plan to count most of the roughly 90,000 absentee, provisional and military ballots in the unresolved US Senate between convicted felon/incumbent Ted Stevens (R) and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D). Stevens led by 3,257 votes in Election Day votes, but there has not yet been any count of these 90,000 other ballots. Absentee ballots mailed from within the US and postmarked by election day will count if the state receives them by November 14. Ballots timely postmarked and mailed from overseas and military bases must be received by November 19.
OHIO - CD-15: State Senator Steve Stivers (R) leads Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by only 149 votes -- but 1,667 Franklin County voters still have an opportunity to have their uncounted ballots become valid. According to the Columbus Dispatch, the 1,667 voters submitted timely absentee ballots but forgot to either sign their ballot envelopes or supply a driver's license or Social Security number. These voters have until Friday to appear at the county election office and sign their ballots or provide the missing ID number to have their absentee envelopes opened and counted. Election officials will also start counting the 27,306 provisional votes on Saturday but won't release the final results until it certifies the election sometime around Thanksgiving.
CALIFORNIA - CD-4: With more than 40,000 ballots still to be counted in the district's largest three counties, State Senator Tom McClintock (R) has an 1,092 vote lead over retired USAF veteran Charlie Brown (D). El Dorado, Nevada and Placer counties had the bulk of the uncounted ballots, but there were also additional uncounted ballots from the portions of the district in Butte and Sacramento counties.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.12.08 | Permalink |

TUESDAY OPEN THREAD.

VETERANS DAY OPEN THREAD: Nothing new on "the undecided races" front ... As expected, Howard Dean announces he will not seek a second term in January as DNC Chair ... and Clintonista former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe filed a campaign committee to run for Virginia Governor next year ... and, to editorialize (actually, to repeat a message I've written here lots of times), on this Veterans Day, it's time to support our troops by bringing them home from Iraq. Now.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.11.08 | Permalink |

MONDAY NEWS UPDATE.

REICHERT WINS; ALASKA, MINNESOTA & GEORGIA US SENATE RACES, CALIFORNIA CD-4 & OHIO CD-15 STILL UNDECIDED.

WASHINGTON - CD-8: Congressman Dave Reichert (R) was declared the winner in this race on Saturday. With roughly 80% of the vote now counted, his 8,000 vote lead is seen as insurmountable.
MINNESOTA: US Senator Norm Coleman's (R) lead over humorist Al Franken (D) dropped to just 221 votes on Sunday. A hand recount will begin on Monday, and may run to near the end of the month.
GEORGIA: It is now confirmed that US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) will face former State Representative Jim Martin (D) in a December 2 run-off. Chambliss is favored in the two-man rematch. The question now is whether President-elect Obama will stake his popularity on the contest by campaigning for Martin.
ALASKA: US Senate race still unresolved. Initial count is continuing. US Senator Ted Stevens (R) leads by 3,257 votes after the last of the election day ballots were counted -- but state election officials reported that as of Friday they had received 81,224 uncounted absentee ballots. Absentee ballots mailed from within the US and postmarked by election day will count if the state receives them by November 14. Ballots timely postmarked and mailed from overseas and military bases must be received by November 19.
OHIO - CD-15: State Senator Steve Stivers (R) saw his lead dwindle further. Stivers now leads Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by only 146 votes. Vote counting continues
.
CALIFORNIA - CD-4: State Senator Tom McClintock (D) has an 889 vote lead over retired USAF veteran Charlie Brown (D). Both campaigns have "lawyered up" for the mandatory recount under state law. However, McClintock has a margin which appears likely to survive the recount -- barring unexpected surprises.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.10.08 | Permalink |

WEEKEND UPDATE.

CHANGE IS COMING TO POLITICS1.

MINNESOTA: US Senator Norm Coleman's (R) lead over humorist Al Franken (D) dropped to just 238 votes on Friday. A hand recount is expected to take 2-3 weeks.
MARYLAND - CD-1: The AP declared Queen Anne County District Attorney Frank Kratovil (D) to winner of this open seat race on Fruday. He leads State Senator Andy Harris (R) by over 2,000 votes. Less than 4,300 provisional ballots remain to be counted, which is why the AP said it was mathematically impossible based upon the voting trend for Harris to catch Kratovil. Another Dem pickup.
OHIO - CD-15: State Senator Steve Stivers (R) now leads Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by 390 votes. Vote counting continues.
WASHINGTON - CD-8: Congressman Dave Reichert (R) is seeing his advantage grow. Reichert now leads businesswoman Darcy Burner (D) by 6,400 votes. Thousands of votes remain uncounted.

POLITICS1: Whatís next for Politics1.com? To editorialize for a moment, I feel better about where our nation is now heading politically. Perhaps this incoming administration and Congress is not as progressive as Iíd prefer -- despite the campaign rhetoric, theyíre centrists in my book -- but theyíre still a major improvement. Iím very disappointed in the setbacks this year for gay civil rights/equality -- but we can still have our marriages and civil unions recognized in New England (and likely soon in New York). So, what about Politics1? Hmmm ... Itís time for a change. After 11 years of daily publishing news and site updates, I am soon going to take an extended break from the daily news writing. I need it, as I feel drained. Iíll wait until after we have winners from the still undecided US Senate and House races -- but then Iím going to take a vacation from the writing.
THE GOOD NEWS! I will keep regularly updating the siteís internal state pages with potential and announced candidates for the 2009 gubernatorial races and the 2010 federal elections -- but maybe only post those updates once every week or two.
THE UNKNOWN: How long will my extended break last? Likely answer: at least several months.
IMPORTANT: My primary email inbox for publisher@politics1.com gets so clogged with hundreds of junk emails daily that it takes too long to go through most of them. If you want to reach me, please "friend me" on Facebook and you'll see the new email address I'm using to avoid the spam clutter.
Iíve enjoyed the last 11 years. My fun avocation has become a second full-time job. Thatís why it is time to kick back, swim, skate, ski, spend more time with friends and family, read, travel, drink, relax ... and enjoy my free time. I know Iíll be back. I just donít know when -- but Iíll use my official Politics1 Facebook group to let you know when Iím going to start up the daily postings again. Be sure to join the group and you'll be the first to know when I'm ready to start up again.
A FINAL QUESTION: Is your preference for me to simply post a new open thread over few days or so (with no news postings) ... or have me work a partnering deal with a site like PoliticalWire, CQ, etc., to carry their political news automated on the homepage during my break? Let me know your thoughts.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.08.08 | Permalink |

FRIDAY NEWS UPDATE.

MERKLEY DEFEATS SMITH; CHAMBLISS-MARTIN HEADS TO DECEMBER RUN-OFF; DON YOUNG RE-ELECTED; BLUNT QUITS AS HOUSE GOP WHIP.

US SENATE:
OREGON: State House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) moved ahead of US Senator Gordon Smith (R) as more votes were counted -- enough so that AP and Oregon media declared Merkley the winner. So, that's Senate pickup #6 for the Democrats.
GEORGIA: It now appears that US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) placed first in the race but failed to win a majority of the vote on Tuesday. He will face former State Representative Jim Martin (D) in a December run-off.
ALASKA: Still unresolved, with convicted felon US Senator Ted Stevens (R) leading by around 3,000 votes -- but as many as 50,000 absentee votes remain to be counted. GOP fissures are becoming public in the Senate Republican Caucus about the future of Stevens, presuming he is reelected. While Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) previously said there was "zero chance" Stevens wouldn’t be expelled from the Senate if he didn’t resign, McConnell now indicates he is willing to wait until Stevens exhausts his appeals. Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) demanded Thursday that the Senate GOP Caucus expel Stevens from the Senate during this month's lame duck session. Expulsion from the Senate requires a two-thirds majority vote (67 votes) to pass. If McConnell doesn’t seek Stevens’ expulsion during the November special session, The Politico reported that DeMint will introduce a motion to expel in January. DeMint is apparently seeking to test McConnell's leadership and help improve the GOP brand name by showing a zero tolerance policy for corruption.
MINNESOTA: Race still unresolved. Incumbent Norm Coleman (R) leads by around 600 votes. The hand recount will start next week and will not likely be completed for at least another two weeks.

US HOUSE:
ALASKA: Yeah, there are tens of thousands of absentee and provisions ballots to count ... but Congressman Don Young (R) holds a wide enough lead that we're ready to declare him the winner over former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D). The current count: Young - 51%, Berkowitz - 44%.
MARYLAND - CD-1: Queen Anne County District Attorney Frank Kratovil (D) apparently defeated State Senator Andy Harris (R) by 915 votes, but this race is heading to a recount.
CALIFORNIA - CD-4: State Senator Tom McClintock (D) seems to have defeated retired USAF veteran Charlie Brown (D) by 709 votes with all precincts counted. Thousands of provisional and absentee ballots remain to be counted.
VIRGINIA - CD-5: International non-profit group founder Tom Perriello (D) jumped to an 600 vote advantage over Congressman Virgil Goode (R) with nearly all votes counted. No word yet as to whether Goode will seek a recount. Perriello has not yet declared victory, saying he will wait until an initial winner is certified.
OHIO - CD-15: State Senator Steve Stivers (R) now leads Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by 390 votes. More absentee and provisional ballots must be counted before we have a winner.
WASHINGTON - CD-8: Congressman Dave Reichert (R) now leads by 1,900 votes, but only 60% of the votes are counted. Thousands of absentee ballots -- from both D and R areas -- remain to be counted. We won't know a winner here for at least a week.

CONGRESS. House Republican Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO) announced Thursday he will not seek re-election to the post for the coming Congress. "Ten years of asking people to do things they don't want to do is a long time," explained Blunt. His departure clears the way for Chief Deputy Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) to move to Whip -- likely unopposed. The move also likely heads off Cantor's looming challenge to House Republican Leader John Boehner (R-OH) for the top job.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.07.08 | Permalink |

THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE.

ALASKA, OREGON, GEORGIA & MINNESOTA SENATE RACES STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL, RECOUNTS LIKELY; FIVE HOUSE RACES UNDECIDED; CONGRESSMAN EMANUEL TO BE OBAMA WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF.

ELECTION 2008 (CONTINUED):
US SENATE - Four US Senate races remain unresolved as of Wednesday evening. In Alaska, convicted felon US Senator Ted Stevens (R) was leading Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) by roughly 3,300 votes -- with 99.3% of precincts counted, plus thousands of absentee ballots also remain uncounted. In Georgia, it was still unclear if US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) would win outright with a majority of the vote or be forced into a December run-off against former State Representative Jim Martin (D). With 99% of the votes counted, Chambliss was falling slightly short with 49.8% versus 46.8% for Martin. In Oregon, US Senator Gordon Smith (R) was leading State House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) by around 8,000 votes with 98% counted -- but the outstanding votes largely come from two heavily Democratic counties: Multnomah and Lane. The Portland Oregonian reported that Merkley is "expected" to win once everything is counted based upon the voting history of those two counties. In Minnesota, US Senator Norm Coleman (R) finished less than 500 votes ahead of liberal humorist Al Franken (D) with all of the nearly 3 million votes counted. The TV networks and AP have declined to declare Coleman the winner, although Coleman has twice declared himself the winner. Coleman's margin, however, was reduced several times on Wednesday as counties re-checked their mathematical calculations. The race is heading to an automatic recount, although Coleman unsuccessfully called on Franken to decline a recount. Under Minnesota law, county election auditors and their counterparts from larger cities will now go over each ballot to determine the voter's intent. Observers from all sides will be watching to recount to ensure fairness.
US HOUSE - In MD-1, Queen Anne County District Attorney Frank Kratovil (D) is leading State Senator Andy Harris (R) by 915 votes with nearly all votes counted. While Kratovil has not yet been declared the winner for this solidly GOP seat, the math seems to ensure a Dem pickup here once the recount is finalized. In AK-1, Congressman Don Young (R) appears to have won re-election with 99% of the vote counted -- despite being the target of a federal corruption probe. Governor Sarah Palin's role as VP nominee appears to have pumped-up GOP numbers in the state for incumbents Young and Stevens. Democrat Ethan Berkowitz appeared unlikely to call for a recount. In CA-4, State Senator Tom McClintock (D) led retired USAF veteran Charlie Brown (D) by 451 votes with all votes counted, but the race now heads to a recount. In VA-5, international non-profit group founder Tom Perriello (D) led Congressman Virgil Goode (R) by just 31 votes out of more than 310,000 cast with all precincts counted. However, provisional and absentee ballots remain uncounted. In OH-15, State Senator Steve Stivers (R) leads Franlin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by 321 votes -- but thousands of absentee ballots from Kilroy's home county remain to be counted. In WA-8, Congressman Dave Reichert (R) led by under 1,200 votes, but less than half of all precincts had reported results by late Wednesday.

PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION. President-elect Barack Obama asked Congressman Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) to serve as his White House Chief of Staff. According to NBC News, Emanuel accepted and the news will be formally announced on Thursday. Emanuel previously worked in the White House as a senior advisor to President Clinton. He also served as DCCC Chair, but would be setting aside his ambition to someday be House Speaker by resigning his seat to serve in the Obama Administration. In other news, US Senator Dick Lugar (R) announced he would not accept any Cabinet position in the new administration. Colin Powell, John Kerry and Chuck Hagel all appeared to express some interest in serving in the next Cabinet. Powell is being mentioned as a candidate for Education Secretary. Kerry expressed an interest in serving as Secretary of State. Hagel's name is floating as a candidate for either Defense of VA Secretary.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.08 | Permalink |

OBAMA WINS BIG!

US SENATE.
Republican incumbents defeated: John Sununu (R-NH), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC).
Democratic incumbents defeated: None.
GOP Won Open Seat Pickups: None.
Dem Won Open Seat Pickups: Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia.
Still Too Close to Call: Minnesota, Oregon, Alaska.

US HOUSE.
Republican incumbents defeated: Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO), Chris Shays (R-CT), Ric Keller (R-FL), Tom Feeney (R-FL), Bill Sali (R-ID), Joe Knollenberg (R-MI), Tim Walberg (R-MI), Jon Porter (R-NV), Randy Kuhl (R-NY), Robin Hayes (R-NC), Steve Chabot (R-OH), Phil English (R-PA), Thelma Drake (R-VA).
Democratic incumbents defeated: Tim Mahoney (D-FL), Nancy Boyda (D), Don Cazayoux (D-LA), Nick Lampson (D-TX).
GOP Won Open Seat Pickups: None.
Dem Won Open Seat Pickups: AL-2, AZ-1, IL-11, NJ-3, NM-1, NM-2, NY-13, NY-25, OH-16, VA-11.
Still Too Close to Call: AK-1, CA-4, MD-1, OH-15, VA-5, WA-8.

GOVERNORSHIPS.
Republican incumbents defeated include: None.
Democratic incumbents defeated include: None.
GOP Won Open Seat Pickups: None.
Dem Won Open Seat Pickups: Missouri.

Election Night Thread #2
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.05.08 | Permalink |

Election Night Thread #1
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.04.08 | Permalink |


TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

TODAY IS ELECTION DAY.

ELECTION COVERAGE. Starting Tuesday evening -- once we can call a few races -- we'll post the news updates here. Regular updates, plus new threads every so often to keep the discussions going. Be sure to check back throughout the night.

US SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups:
ALASKA (Hays Research): Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) - 49%, US Senator Ted Stevens (R) - 42%, Others - 2%.
GEORGIA (SurveyUSA): US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) - 48%, former State Rep. Jim Martin (D) - 44%, attorney Allen Buckley (Libt) - 5%.
GEORGIA (PPP-D): US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) - 48%, former State Rep. Jim Martin (D) - 46%, attorney Allen Buckley (Libt) - 4%.
GEORGIA (Strategic Vision-R): US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) - 48%, former State Rep. Jim Martin (D) - 44%, attorney Allen Buckley (Libt) - 4%.
GEORGIA (Insider Advantage): US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) - 46%, former State Rep. Jim Martin (D) - 44%, attorney Allen Buckley (Libt) - 2%.
MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Humorist Al Franken (D) - 44%, US Senator Norm Coleman (R) - 39%, former US Senator Dean Barkley (IP) - 16%.
MONTANA (PPP-D): US Senator Max Baucus (D) - 71%, attorney Bob Kelleher (R) - 26%.
NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 50%, US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 43%, postal worker Chris Cole (Libt) - 5%.
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 51%, US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 44%, postal worker Chris Cole (Libt) - 3%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Mason-Dixon): US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 46%, State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 45%.

GOVERNOR. The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
INDIANA (PPP-D): Governor Mitch Daniels (R) - 60%, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson (D) - 37%.
MISSOURI (SurveyUSA): Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) - 54%, Congressman Kenny Hulshof (R) - 39%, Others - 4%.
MONTANA (PPP-D): Governor Brian Schweitzer (D) - 62%, State Senator Roy Brown (R) - 36%.
NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue (D) - 48%, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) - 47%, college professor Mike Munger (Libt) - 4%.
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue (D) - 49%, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) - 48%, college professor Mike Munger (Libt) - 2%.
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Governor Christine Gregoire (D) - 52%, former State Senator Dino Rossi (R) - 46%.
WASHINGTON (Univ of Washington): Governor Christine Gregoire (D) - 50%, former State Senator Dino Rossi (R) - 48%.
WASHINGTON (Strategic Vision-R): Governor Christine Gregoire (D) - 50%, former State Senator Dino Rossi (R) - 48%.

SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here are my final thanks to those who sent me campaign buttons in exchange for a free plug here:
Former Congressman and former Houston City Councilman Chris Bell (D-Texas) - Candidate for Texas Senate, District 17.
Former Congressman and former US Attorney Bob Barr (Libertarian-Georgia) - Candidate for President.

CONGRESS. Here are the latest independent polls for US House races.
ALASKA (Hays Research): Former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D) - 49%, Congressman Don Young (R) - 43%, Others - 1%.
PENNSYLVANIA CD-11 (SurveyUSA): Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta (R) - 51%, Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D) - 45%.
VIRGINIA CD-5 (SurveyUSA): Congressman Virgil Goode (R) - 50%, international non-profit group founder Tom Perriello (D) - 47%.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.04.08 | Permalink |

MONDAY NEWS UPDATE.

JUST ONE DAY TO GO...

P2008. Vice President Dick Cheney announced his endorsement of John McCain during a campaign speech in Wyoming on Saturday. The Barack Obama campaign immediately turned around a TV spot by Sunday morning touting the Cheney endorsement. McCain, meanwhile, appeared on Saturday Night Live and participated in two skits. In other entertainment news, country singers Hank Williams Jr. and Gretchen Wilson were on the trail this weekend for McCain. Rock star Bruce Springsteen, rappers Jay-Z and Sean "Diddy" Combs, and singers Mary J. Blige and Beyonce were on the trail for Obama during these final days.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent polls of competitive battleground states in the Presidential race:
ARKANSAS (ARG): McCain - 51%, Obama - 44%.
COLORADO (Mason-Dixon): Obama - 49%, McCain - 44%.
FLORIDA (Mason-Dixon): Obama - 49%, McCain - 47%.
FLORIDA (ARG): Obama - 50%, McCain - 46%.
INDIANA (ARG): McCain - 48%, Obama - 48%.
IOWA (Des Moines Register): Obama - 54%, McCain - 37%.
IOWA (Research 2000): Obama - 53%, McCain - 39%.
KENTUCKY (SurveyUSA): McCain - 56%, Obama - 40%.
KENTUCKY (Mason-Dixon): McCain - 51%, Obama - 42%.
MAINE (Rasmussen): Obama - 56%, McCain - 43%.
MICHIGAN (Detroit Free Press): Obama - 53%, McCain - 37%.
MINNESOTA (Minneapolis Star-Tribune): Obama - 53%, McCain - 42%.
MISSOURI (Mason-Dixon): McCain - 47%, Obama - 46%.
NEVADA (Mason-Dixon): Obama - 47%, McCain - 43%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama - 52%, McCain - 41%.
NEW MEXICO (SurveyUSA): Obama - 52%, McCain - 45%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Mason-Dixon): McCain - 49%, Obama - 46%.
OHIO (Columbus Dispatch): Obama - 52%, McCain - 46%.
OHIO (Mason-Dixon): McCain - 47%, Obama - 45%.
OREGON (Rasmussen): Obama - 54%, McCain - 42%.
PENNSYLVANIA (SurveyUSA): Obama - 51%, McCain - 44%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Rasmussen): Obama - 52%, McCain - 46%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College): Obama - 52%, McCain - 45%.
SOUTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen): McCain - 53%, Obama - 44%.
VIRGINIA (SurveyUSA): Obama - 50%, McCain - 46%.
VIRGINIA (Mason-Dixon): Obama - 47%, McCain - 44%.
WISCONSIN (Univ. of Wisconsin): Obama - 52%, McCain - 42%.

US SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups:
ALASKA (Research 2000): Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) - 58%, US Senator Ted Stevens (R) - 36%.
GEORGIA (Research 2000): US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) - 47%, former State Rep. Jim Martin (D) - 46%, attorney Allen Buckley (Libt) - 5%.
KENTUCKY (SurveyUSA): US Senator Mitch McConnell (R) - 53%, businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) - 45%.
KENTUCKY (Research 2000): US Senator Mitch McConnell (R) - 47%, businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) - 44%.
MAINE (Rasmussen): US Senator Susan Collins (R) - 57%, Congressman Tom Allen (D) - 41%.
MICHIGAN (Strategic Vision-R): US Senator Carl Levin (D) - 56%, State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R) - 33%.
MINNESOTA (Minneapolis Star-Tribune): Humorist Al Franken (D) - 42%, US Senator Norm Coleman (R) - 38%, former US Senator Dean Barkley (IP) - 15%.
MINNESOTA (Research 2000): Humorist Al Franken (D) - 43%, US Senator Norm Coleman (R) - 40%, former US Senator Dean Barkley (IP) - 15%.
MISSISSIPPI (Research 2000): US Senator Roger Wicker (R) - 51%, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) - 44%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Strategic Vision-R): Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) - 48%, US Senator John Sununu (R) - 41%.
NEW MEXICO (SurveyUSA): Congressman Tom Udall (D) - 56%, Congressman Steve Pearce (R) - 42%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Research 2000): State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 50%, US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 45%, postal worker Chris Cole (Libt) - 3%.
OREGON (Research 2000): State House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) - 48%, US Senator Gordon Smith (R) - 42%, salesman Dave Brownlow (Const) - 5%.
OREGON (Rasmussen): State House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) - 49%, US Senator Gordon Smith (R) - 46%, salesman Dave Brownlow (Const) - 4%.
VIRGINIA (SurveyUSA): Former Governor Mark Warner (D) - 59%, former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) - 35%, businesswoman Gail Parker (Ind Green) - 3%, Libertarian National Chairman Bill Redpath (Libt) - 2%.

SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301.

GOVERNOR. The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Strategic Vision-R): Governor John Lynch (D) - 67%, State Senator Joe Kenney (R) - 24%.
WASHINGTON (Washington Post): Governor Christine Gregoire (D) - 50%, former State Senator Dino Rossi (R) - 48%.
WASHINGTON (Strategic Vision-R): Governor Christine Gregoire (D) - 49%, former State Senator Dino Rossi (R) - 47%.

CONGRESS. Here are the latest independent polls for US House races.
ALASKA (Research 2000): Former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D) - 53%, Congressman Don Young (R) - 44%.
NEVADA CD-3 (Mason-Dixon): Congressman Jon Porter (R) - 44%, former State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus (D) - 44%
UTAH CD-1 (Deseret News): Congressman Rob Bishop (R) - 60%, Mormon seminary teacher Morgan Bowen (D) - 27%.
UTAH CD-2 (Deseret News): Congressman Jim Matheson (D) - 65%, businessman Bill Dew (R) - 26%.
UTAH CD-3 (Deseret News): Former gubernatorial chief of staff Jason Chaffetz (R) - 58%, journalist Bennion Spencer (D) - 24%.
WYOMING (Research 2000): Former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis (R) - 49%, businessman Gary Trauner (D) - 45%, attorney David Herbert (Libt) - 2%.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.03.08 | Permalink |

SATURDAY NEWS UPDATE.

RON'S ELECTION PREVIEW (AND PREDICTIONS): PART 4 - SOUTH CAROLINA-WYOMING ... AND PRESIDENT.

SOUTH CAROLINA.
US SENATE:
US Senator Lindsey Graham (R) will easily defeat former Pat Buchanan campaign activist and commercial pilot Bob Conley (D) -- although Conley will finish in the low 40s.
CD-1: Congressman Henry Brown (R) is facing a very tough challenge from philanthropist and Food Lion grocery chain heiress Linda Ketner (D), who is also openly gay. Independent polling shows Ketner within striking range. Brown is having to defend himself against Ketner's deep personal pockets and DCCC money, but the challenger may have timed her late surge well. Conventional wisdom says Brown should win, but this is not a conventional year. This race is a coin toss -- and I know this would be a longshot upset -- but I'll call it for Ketner over the 73-year-old incumbent.

SOUTH DAKOTA.
Despite lingering health issues, US Senator Tim Johnson (D) will win a lopsided re-election victory. So will Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D).

TENNESSEE.
US SENATE:
US Senator Lamar Alexander (R) will score a landslide win.
CD-1: Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe defeated freshman Congressman David Davis in the GOP primary. Roe is a safe bet to win this seat.

TEXAS.
US SENATE: State Representative and Iraq War veteran Rick Noriega (D) is an attractive candidate, but US Senator John Cornyn (R) will still win re-election to a second term.
CD-7: Businessman Michael Skelly (D) has proven to be a tougher-than-expected challenger, but Congressman John Culberson (R) will survive.
CD-10: Congressman Mike McCaul (R) unexpectedly finds himself in the toughest fight of his career. Attorney and actor Larry Joe Doherty (D) has waged a solid campaign. McCaul will win.
CD-22: Congressman Nick Lampson (D) has been the NRCC's top national target ever since he unexpectedly captured former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's (R) seat two years ago. Lampson has done everything possible to strengthen his position in this solid GOP district. However, attorney, former congressional aide and Naval Reserve officer Pete Olson (R) will score a rare GOP pickup this year by ousting Lampson.
CD-23: Congressman Ciro Rodriguez (D), who narrowly won this seat two years ago, will survive the aggressive challenge from Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson (R).

UTAH.
GOVERNOR:
Incumbent Jon Huntsman Jr. (R) will win the biggest gubernatorial landslide of the 2008 cycle.
CD-3: Former gubernatorial chief of staff Jason Chaffetz ousted Congressman Chris Cannon in the GOP primary. Chaffetz will win big in this very red district.

VERMONT.
GOVERNOR:
GOP centrist Governor Jim Douglas will score a comfortable re-election victory. The only question is whether progressive activist Anthony Pollina (Independent) or State House Speaker Gaye Symington (D) will finish in second place.

VIRGINIA.
US SENATE: The battle to replace retiring US Senator John Warner (R) between two former '08 White House hopefuls isn't even close. Former Governor Mark Warner (D) will defeat former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) by at least 20 points. Another Dem pickup.
CD-2: Former US Foreign Service diplomat Glenn Nye (D) has proven to be a very credible challenger to Congresswoman Thelma Drake (R) -- but Drake will win another term.
CD-5: Congressman Virgil Goode (R) faces a surprisingly well-financed challenge from international non-profit group organizer Tom Perriello (D). Goode will survive.
CD-10: Congressman Frank Wolf (R) was swept into office on the wave of the 1980 Reagan landslide. The 2008 Obama wave just doesn't seem strong enough to help Georgetown Public Policy Institute Dean Judy Feder (D) sweep Wolf out of office this year. But this one will be surprisingly close.
CD-11: Congressman Tom Davis (R) is retiring. Fairfax County Council Chair Gerry Connolly (D) will score a comfortable Dem pickup in this open seat race.

WASHINGTON.
GOVERNOR: Governor Christine Gregoire (D) is locked in a very close rematch against former State Senator Dino Rossi (R). Independent polling shows the two have been statistically tied for two months now. Obama's strength in the state should be enough to carry Gregoire to a very tight re-election win. Unlike four years ago, a change of state law means there are no other candidates in the general election race.
CD-8: Congressman Dave Reichert (R) narrowly survived a challenge two years ago from former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D). The two are facing off again, and this race is likewise close. Democratic strength here is stronger now than it was in 2006 (or 2004). This time Burner will win.

WEST VIRGINIA.
GOVERNOR:
Governor Joe Manchin (D) will win big.
US SENATE: Incumbent Jay Rockefeller (D) will likewise win big for a fifth term.
CD-2: Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito, a GOP centist, is frequent Dem target. Every two years they get their hopes up, then Capito wins again. This year her opponent is Anne Barth (D), the former longtime State Director for US Senator Robert Byrd. Polling shows Barth has narrowed the gap, but look for Capito to win.

WISCONSIN.
CD-8: Freshman Congressman Steve Kagen (D) is facing a rematch from former State House Speaker John Gard (R). Same result as two years ago: Kagen wins.

WYOMING.
US SENATE - BOTH SEATS:
US Senator Mike Enzi (R) will win easy re-election to a third term. US Senator John Barrasso (R) -- appointed last year to fill the vacancy left by the death of US Senator Craig Thomas (R) -- will also comfortably win his first election to the Senate in the special election.
CCONGRESS: Congresswoman Barbara Cubin (R) is retiring. Former Teton County School Board Chair and businessman Gary Trauner (D) nearly defeated Cubin in 2006. Trauner is running again, this time against former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis (R). Like two years ago, Trauner will come close -- but Lummis will win.

CONGRESS: THE MATH.
US SENATE: Democrats gain ten seats (Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Virginia). Republicans score no pickups. Kentucky clearly is the "iffy-ist" of my calls. For the next Congress, this means 60 Democrats (including Sanders), 39 Republicans ... plus Joe Lieberman (who, presumably, will remain an Independent but caucus with the GOP next year).
US HOUSE: Democrats score a net gain of 31 seats. Democrats score 34 pickups: AL-2, AK, AZ-1, CA-4, CO-4, CT-4, FL-8, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, ID-1, IL-10, IL-11, IN-3, MD-1, MI-7, MI-9, MN-3, MN-6, MO-9, NV-3, NJ-3, NM-1, NM-2, NY-13, NY-25, NY-29, NC-8, OH-15, OH-16, PA-3, SC-1, VA-11 and WA-8. Republicans score three pickups: FL-16, PA-11 and TX-22. The next Congress: 267 Democrats, 168 Republicans. Postscript: Veteran national GOP strategist and dirty trickster Roger Stone tells Politics1 that "in an election year like this one, we'll also see 2-3 'safe' Republican [congressional] incumbents -- I'm talking about people not even on any any lists of longshot races -- go down to defeat."

THE PRESIDENCY.
Expect 80% or more of the remaining "undecideds" to go with McCain. Frankly, I'm presuming nearly all of those claiming to be undecided are actually already decided McCain voters. The key will be the final, reliable independent polls. So long as Obama is polling 49% or better in a state, place that state in the Obama column. If McCain is in the 47-49 range, give that state to McCain -- likewise for any "virtually tied" states in which Obama is polling under 46%. This matrix tells me Obama will win -- and I believe with at least 300 electoral votes. Obama will also win a majority of the national popular vote.

SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. Today's thanks go out to:
Attorney and civil rights activist Cheryl Bergian (D-North Dakota) - Candidate for State Public Service Commissioner.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.08 | Permalink |

JOIN THE POLITICS1
FACEBOOK GROUP:

BLOG ARCHIVE:

November 16-30, 2008
November 1-15, 2008
October 16-31, 2008
October 1-15, 2008
September 16-30, 2008
September 1-15, 2008
August 1-31, 2008
July 16-31, 2008
July 1-15, 2008
June 16-30, 2008
June 1-15, 2008
May 16-31, 2008
May 1-15, 2008
April 16-30, 2008
April 1-15, 2008
March 16-31, 2008
March 1-15, 2008
February 16-29, 2008
February 1-15, 2008
January 16-31, 2008
January 1-15, 2008
December 16-31, 2007
December 1-15, 2007
MORE BLOG ARCHIVES


POLITICAL BLOG ROLL:

KINDA NEUTRAL:
ABC News: The Note
CNN: Political Ticker
CQ Politics
MSNBC: First Read
Pollster.com
PolitiFact.com
The Hill
Rothenberg Pol. Report
Stateline.org
Governing.com
Hotline On Call
Hotline's Blogometer
The Politico
WatchBlog
Jake Tapper
FactCheck.org
Marc Ambinder
WSJ: Best of the Web
D.C.'s Political Report

Political Wire
Larry Sabato
James Kotecki
PressThink
US News & World Report
Time Magazine
Newsweek
Politics-Line
Vot3r.com
memeorandum
Campaign Circus
Politizine.com
Foreign Policy Watch
Media Bistro

DEM/LEFT:
DNC Blog
DCCC Blog
DSCC Blog
DailyKos
Lefty Blogs
Talking Points Memo
TPM Cafe
The Raw Story
DownWithTyranny!
Democracy for America
Senate Guru
Swing State Project
Campaign Diaries
Fishbowl America
Mother Jones
Frameshop
Democratic Strategist
Think Progress
AmericaBlog.com
Amer Prospect: Tapped
Huffington Post
BAG News Notes
Eric Alterman
FishBowl DC
Fired Up! America
TalkLeft
TNR: The Plank
ZNet
Joe Trippi
Media Matters
Juan Cole
Wonkette
MyDD
Credo Action
Crooks & Liars
Mathew Gross
Progressive Dems: Blog
Eschaton
Off the Kuff
Tom Tomorrow
The Washington Note
Agonist
TruthOut
Liberal Oasis
Firedoglake
The Homo Politico
Good As You
Down With Tyranny
BuzzFlash
Taylor Marsh
Brad Blog
Nation-Building
TruthDig
Dem Underground
Open Left
Rod 2.0
Pam's House Blend
Bad Attitudes
GoLeft.tv
at-Largely
The American Street
BlogActive

GOP/RIGHT:
RNC (GOP.com)
NRCC Blog
NRSC Blog
Club for Growth
TownHall.com
Real Clear Politics
SayfieNews.com
Mickey Kaus
Virginia Postrel
RedState
WSJ Opinion Journal
Free Republic
Instapundit
Drudge Report
Pajamas Media
Hugh Hewitt
Daniel Drezner
News Busters
Daily Pundit
Extreme Mortman
NRO: The Corner
NRO: Campaign Spot
Reason: Hit & Run
Outside the Beltway
Little Green Footballs
World Mag Blog
Right Wing News
Right Pundits
Volokh Conspiracy
Brothers Judd
David Frum
Save the GOP
Enter Stage Right
PoliPundit
Power Line
The Next Right
Hedgehog Report
Right Voices
Right Bias
Booker Rising
Conservative Grapevine
Don Singleton
StoneZone
Diggers Realm

OTHER:
Ballot Access News
Indep. Political Report
ThirdPartyWatch.com
Kn@ppster
Green Party Watch
News for Greens
Infoshop News


Support Our Troops: Bring Them Home Now!


For those who would like to track Politics1 with a newsreader, we publish a RSS feed:


The Presidency | P2008 Race | The States | Calendar | Blog Archives
Political Parties | News Links | Issues | Job Bank | Issues | FAQ
Campaign Products & Services | Campaign Buttons | Bookstore | About Us | E-Mail

© 1997-2008 by Ron Gunzburger. All rights reserved.