The Most Comprehensive Guide to U.S. Politics ... since 1997
| DIRECTORY:
Home | The Presidency
| P2008 Race | State/Federal
Candidates | Political Parties Calendar | Campaign Products & Services | Issues | News Blog | News Links | Job Bank FAQ | View from Abroad | Bookstore | Our Awards | Advertise | About Us | Email Us |
| BLOG ARCHIVE: OCTOBER 1-15, 2008.
McCAIN POLLSTER SAYS ECONOMY HELPED OBAMA; NRCC PULLS PLUG ON NON-INCUMBENTS; NEW POLL NUMBERS. P2008. John McCain's own internal pollster Bill McInturff conceded to Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic that global economic meltdown in recent weeks has significantly eroded McCain's support. "The financial tsunami has produced one of the most difficult and volatile times to conduct polling in modern times. During these uniquely volatile last few weeks, I have seen as much day-to-day movement as I have witnessed in my 20 plus year career as a pollster," said McInturff.
P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. DOW POSTS RECORD REBOUND; CANADA VOTES; CONGRESSMAN MAHONEY SEX SCANDAL; NEW POLLS. ECONOMY. News of a coordinated EU bailout of European banks pushed foreign markets sharply up on Monday, which in turn produced the largest single-day points gain in Wall Street history. The market shot up 936 points -- an 11.1% gain -- registering the best market percentage gain since 1932. The market is still far below the values it registered just a month ago, but the development was encouraging. On the heels of this gain, the Bush Administration will announce a plans to invest $250 billion in US banks -- in exchange for an equity interest -- a move intended to recapitalize the nation's foundering lending institutions. The coming days will tell if the gains of Monday were an anomaly or an end to the corrosive slide.
FLORIDA. Freshman Congressman Tim Mahoney (D) -- possibly the most-vulnerable House Democrat of this cycle -- is now embroiled in an embarrassing sex scandal that seems likely to derail his re-election bid. According to ABC News, Mahoney carried on an extra-marital affair with a campaign staffer beginning in 2006. He then placed the woman first on his congressional staff, then on his campaign re-election staff. When the woman learned Mahoney was apparently sleeping with other women while also continuing the relationship with her, she threatened to sue the congressman. In response, Mahoney agreed to a $121,000 payment to his former mistress in exchange for her dropping the matter. While Mahoney has avoided the lawsuit, the timing of the revelations could not have been worse. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) immediately called for a House Ethics Committee investigation of the matter. The district is reliably Republican, and Mahoney only won in a fluke two years ago when incumbent Congressman Mark Foley (R) was ensnared in a gay sex scandal involving teenage congressional pages just weeks before the election. Change this race rating from toss-up to Leans GOP. Wealthy attorney Tom Rooney is the GOP nominee against Mahoney. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups: GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. JUST POLLS TODAY ... LOTS AND LOTS OF POLLS. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups: GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. PALIN VIOLATED LAW IN TROOPERGATE, SAID BIPARTISAN ALASKA LEG PANEL. TROOPERGATE.
A SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every
campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from
the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign
you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure
-- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our
home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential
coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301.
Today's thanks go out to: MARKET CRASH WORSENS, McCAIN CAMP DENOUNCES PAULSON PLAN TO RECAPITALIZE BANKS; AYERS SPOT DOESN'T AIR; PLUS LOTS OF NEW POLLS. WALL
STREET. In the face of the latest dismal day on global
markets -- with Wall Street dropping 679 points and hitting a
five-year low -- the Bush Administration indicated it was inching
towards recapitalizing beleaguered US banks by purchasing equity
interests. Based upon the past seven trading days, the Dow Jones
has already lost 20% in total value. In response to the recapitalization
news, John McCain's chief policy advisor Douglas Holtz-Eakin sharply
denounced it. "It's not the way things should be done in
the United States and that's very disturbing if that's the route
they intend to take," Holtz-Eakin told NPR. Obama policy
advisor Austan Goolsbee responded that the recently adopted bailout
legislation -- which was supported by McCain -- granted to the
White House the authority to nationalize banks through equity
purchases. "It is ... almost exactly what the government
did with AIG -- they gave them money and took equity -- and John
McCain supported that action," said Goolsbee. In another
related news, The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder reported that
the McCain did not actually purchase any television airtime to
run the attack TV spot focusing on Obama's ties with former 1960s
P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups: GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. YOM KIPPUR OPEN THREAD. FREE SPEECH ZONE. Due to the Jewish holidays, I unable to post a news update this evening ... so I'll leave it up to all of you to debate the latest in the Prez race and the 200-point market drop in the face of the coordinated international rate cut to halt the slide. SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every
campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from
the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign
you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure
-- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our
home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential
coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. MARKETS CONTINUE TO TUMBLE; McCAIN-OBAMA DEBATE TAME, DULL; STATE POLLS SHOW OBAMA SURGING; NEW POLLS BAD NEWS FOR HOUSE REPUBLICANS. P2008.
Wall Street recorded another P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups: GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every
campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from
the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign
you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure
-- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our
home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential
coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. WALL STREET, GLOBAL MARKETS CRASH AGAIN; McCAIN TRIES TO CHANGE FOCUS; DEMS GAIN IN GA, NH, NC SENATE RACE POLLS. P2008.
On the same P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every
campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from
the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign
you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure
-- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our
home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential
coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups:
CONGRESSMAN JEFFERSON FORCED INTO LOUISIANA RUNOFF; ORDER ABSENTEE BALLOTS ONLINE; CO, MN & NH SEN POLLS; PLUS 4 CONGRESSIONAL RACE POLLS. LOUISIANA.
P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups:
SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. VEEP DEBATE REDUX; HOUSE PASSES WALL STREET BAILOUT PLAN (NOW WITH PORK!); PLUS LOTS OF POLLS. VEEP
DEBATE. Both sides spent Friday claiming victory in Thursday
night's Joe Biden-Sarah Palin debate. In reality, it was a win
for both. In the case of Palin, she far exceeded the low expectations
and registered a charismatic performance -- albeit heavy on memorized
soundbites and light on details. As for Biden, he clearly dominated
the stage when it came to breadth of knowledge and focus -- but
he was rather stiff, especially during the WALL STREET BAILOUT. Following the US Senate's lead, the House approved the White House's $700 billion Wall Street bailout plan. The price tag, however, is now much closer to $1 trillion, as the Senate version was loaded with an assortment of costly pork spending projects which were intended -- apparently successfully -- to persuade enough House members to switch their "no" votes from Monday into "yes" votes on Friday. The end result: 58 members switched their votes to support the bill. The final tally: 263-171. Within an hour of passage, President Bush hastily signed the bailout legislation into law. [Editor's note: Count me among those that would have still voted against it as the revised bill (1) lacked the mortgage restructing authority for federal bankruptcy judges needed to protect Main Street homeowners, and (2) lacked a true voting equity share for taxpayers in the institutions seeking bailout protection.] P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the GOVERNOR.
The SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every
campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from
the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign
you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure
-- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our
home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential
coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. Today's thanks
go out to: CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. VEEP DEBATE ... GIVE US YOUR REACTIONS. BIDEN-PALIN
DEBATE. Joe Biden and Sarah Palin met in Missouri on
Thursday night for the first and only Vice Presidential debate
of the campaign. Who won? Well ... I'm posting this in lieu of
writing a news posting/analysis SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every
campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from
the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign
you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure
-- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our
home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential
coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. Today's thanks
go out to: SENATE TRIES "CHRISTMAS TREE" VERSION OF BAILOUT BILL; KEY SWING STATES SHIFTING TO OBAMA; MS, TX SENATE RACES TIGHTEN. WALL STREET BAILOUT. Barack Obama, John McCain and Joe Biden all returned to the Senate on Wednesday afternoon to cast votes in support of the Senate's version of the $700 billion Wall Street bailout plan. Actually, the price tag will be considerably higher if the Senate version is signed into law as a bipartisan coalition of Senators loaded up the bill with a variety of pork funding projects in an attempt to by support of House opponents. The House plans to hold another vote on Friday, but passage remains uncertain. FYI: Billionaire financier George Soros is creatively suggesting an entirely different recovery plan for Congress to consider. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. MARKETS REBOUND ON HOPES FOR REVIVED BAILOUT; AND SWING STATE POLLS. WALL STREET BAILOUT. Wall Street rebounded strongly on Tuesday, in large part due to a belief that some form of bailout will still be approved before Congress goes into recess for the fall elections. Dem opponents revived their push for giving bankruptcy judges the power to restructure mortgages to avoid foreclosures. GOP opponents, by contrast, want concessions to better empower businesses while not increasing their tax burdens. Centrists -- and leadership -- believe slight tinkering with Monday's version will be enough to gain the few votes needed for House passage. Speaking with MSNBC, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC) explained how the bailout failed on Monday. He said the bipartisan leadership agreement was that House Dems were responsible for producing at least 118 votes in support of the bailout and House Republicans had agreed to deliver 100 votes. Clyburn said he spoke with Republican Whip Roy Blunt a "few hours" before the vote and Blunt told him the GOP count was only at "the mid-70s to 80s." In response, Clyburn said he helped deliver 140 votes to provide Blunt with a cushion -- but the Republicans still fell short of their estimated whip count and produced only 65 votes in support of the rescue plan. And -- considering the roll John McCain said he played in "convincing" House Republicans back the bill -- it was notable that every Arizona Republican in the House voted against the bailout on Monday. Both sides are talking behind closed doors, with another vote likely before the end of the week. Senate leaders of both parties hope to force a Senate vote by Wednesday evening, in an effort to pressure House members ot back the bailout. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every
campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from
the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign
you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure
-- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our
home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential
coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups:
|
JOIN
THE POLITICS1
BLOG
ARCHIVE: POLITICAL BLOG ROLL: KINDA
NEUTRAL: DEM/LEFT: GOP/RIGHT: OTHER:
For those who would like to track Politics1 with a newsreader, we publish a RSS feed:
|
CONGRESS.
The NRCC is pulling the plug on national financial support for
some of the GOP's most highly touted recruits -- including in
Republicans in key open seat contests -- to divert funds to embattled
House incumbents. According to The Politico, among those
promising candidates who now find themselves without NRCC dollars
include Darren White (R-NM) and Erik Paulsen (R-MN). Instead,
NRCC is shifting its money to buy ads in support of various incumbents
who now find themselves worried about surprisingly tight re-election
races. The incumbents targeted to benefit from this money shift
include John Shadegg (R-AZ), Dan Lungren (R-CA), Lee Terry (R-NE)
and Henry Brown (R-SC). The article also reported that other House
Republicans who now find themselves in unexpectedly competitive
contests include Californians Dana Rohrabacher, Dave Dreier and
Brian Bilbray. As of the end of August, the DCCC had $54 million
cash-on-hand versus just $14.3 million in the NRCC bank account.
The DCCC has already spent nearly $25 million on 47 races, including
30 seats currently held by Republicans. By contrast, the NRCC
has spent under $2 million on just 13 seats -- and ten of those
are districts the NRCC is defending. "In some of those districts,
the mold has hardened," said retiring Congressman Tom Davis
(R-VA), a former NRCC Chair.
US
SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate
match-ups: 
CANADA.
Tuesday is election day in Canada. Prime Minister 
SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every
campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from
the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign
you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure
-- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our
home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential
coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301.
bipartisan
panel in the Alaska Legislature released its investigative report
Friday evening. The result: By a unanimous vote, the legislators
found that Governor Sarah Palin abused her power as Governor and
violated state ethics laws when she fired the State Public Safety
Commissioner after he refused to fire Palin's former brother-in-law
from his job as a state trooper. The trooper had formerly been
married to Todd Palin's sister, and the had recently gone through
a bitter divorce fight. "Gov. Palin knowingly permitted a
situation to continue where 
impermissible
pressure was placed on several [state police] subordinates in
order to advance a personal agenda," the report stated. The
McCain campaign denounced the report as politically motivated
by Palin foes, saying the report was timed to help the Obama campaign.
You can 
Weather
Underground terror group member Bill Ayers. The McCain campaign
claimed this morning it was planning to go on the offensive today
with the Ayers spot. The Obama campaign, by contrast, purchased
a 30-minute block of TV time on CBS on the evening of October
29. The Obama campaign is also trying to buy 30-minute blocks
of time on the same evening on ABC, NBC and FOX.
500+
point crash on Tuesday, bringing the Dow to the lowest close in
over five years. International markets were also in crisis on
Tuesday, in response to the ongoing economic fears. Hours after
the trading for the day ended, John McCain and Barack Obama met
for their second debate. This encounter was purportedly a town
hall format -- albeit so moderated and controlled as to render
the concept a joke. The town hall format is McCain's favored debate
style, but the agreed format restrictions so neutered the tone
of the "debate." Both men directly engaged, but in a
rather tame manner. Those conservatives who wanted McCain to come
out punching in a effort to revive his faltering campaign, however,
were left disappointed. Instead, the forum was merely another
joint appearance unlikely to significantly change the current
trajectory of the race.
FLORIDA
CD-18 (Telemundo): Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) - 48%,
businesswoman Annette Taddeo (D) - 35%.
Congressman
Bill Jefferson (D) -- under indictment on federal corruption charges
and not supported for renomination by the Louisiana Democratic
Party -- limped into first-place in Saturday's CD-2 primary with
just 25% of the vote. Six Democratic rivals split the anti-Jefferson
vote. Jefferson will face a competitive November 4 primary run-off
against former local TV news reporter Helena Moreno, the white
candidate in the primary. Moreno finished second with 20%, followed
by State Representative Cedric Richmond in third place with 17%.
As CD-2 is majority African-American, Moreno may face racial obstacles
in runoff -- even though 75% of primary voters cast ballots against
Jefferson. In the open CD-4 seat being vacated by retiring Congressman
Jim McCrery (R), both major parties will see their contests advance
to runoff elections. On the GOP side, former Webster Parish Coroner
John Fleming narrowly edged trucking executive Chris Gorman by
a vote of 35% to 34%. McCrery's endorsed successor -- attorney
Jeff Thompson -- was third with 31%. On the Dem side, Caddo District
Attorney Paul Carmouche was first in the four-way primary with
48%, but fell short of the majority mark that had been expected.
Retired Army officer Willie Banks, who captured 22%, will face
Carmouche in the November runoff. 
(Rasmussen):
Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) - 50%, US Senator John Sununu
(R) - 45%. 
earlier
portions of the debate. If anything, both runningmates easily
exceeded the performances last week by their respective top-of-ticket
partners. Independent polling seems to show undecided and independent
voters watching the debate generally preferred Biden over Palin.
US
Senate match-ups:
new
independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
so
that I, too, can watch it all. Other related big news: John McCain
pulled out of Michigan, canceling his TV ad buys and other campaign
spending in the state.
The
latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups:
our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the
Presidential race:
The
Presidency | P2008 Race | The
States | Calendar | Blog Archives
Political Parties | News
Links | Issues | Job Bank
| Issues | FAQ
Campaign Products & Services | Campaign
Buttons | Bookstore | About
Us | E-Mail
© 1997-2008 by Ron Gunzburger. All rights reserved.