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BLOG ARCHIVE: OCTOBER 16-31, 2004 SUNDAY
NIGHT OPEN THREAD. The race is almost over ... TRACKING THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. Polls open in less than 48 hours and here is what it looks like right now ..
This
one is going down to the wire. US
SENATE RACE UPDATES. COLORADO
(Zogby): Attorney General Ken Salazar (D) - 49%, brewery magnate
CONGRESSIONAL
RACE UPDATES. Lots of new polls. COLORADO CD-7
(Denver Post/Mason-Dixon): Congressman Bob Beauprez (R) - 46%,
District Attorney Dave Thomas (R) - 40%, retiree Clyde Harkins
(Const) - 3%. HALLOWEEN
OPEN THREAD. Boo! So -- speaking of Halloween -- what candidate
scares you the most? SATURDAY
EVENING OPEN THREAD. Just giving you more space to keep
the debates going ...  Bilyeu
-- a former school counselor and self-described liberal "Justice
Activist" -- was briefly a peace candidate for the Green
Party's Presidential nomination earlier this year in the DC primary.
This
summer, Bilyeu placed last at the Green convention with just 2
delegates on the first ballot. She was previously a 1986 candidate
in the Democratic primary for Texas Governor against incumbent
Mark White (but she captured only 4% of the vote). It would be
polite to describe Bilyeu as "eccentric." Over the past
20 years, she has filed numerous lawsuits against the federal
government -- all dismissed by the courts -- in which she demanded
the removal of a secret radio transmitter that the military purportedly
planted in her head sometime in the 1970s. She has told reporters
that the device mostly sends her negative messages that are critical
of her. In one lawsuit, Bilyeu claimed that President Clinton
had ordered her "gassed" and had stolen her dog. If
you doubt her claims, Bilyeu has this response: "Before you
write me off you should search for the truth and if you did you
would find that I do have a radio type device in my head. An x-ray
could confirm it for you. If I was crazy there are plenty of people
who would have been glad to put me away."
Is she willing to have her head x-rayed so her claims can be proved
or disproved. She answers that there is unlikely to be any doctor
willing to provide an honest answer of his findings for fear of
drawing the ire of her secret enemies. So, if Bilyeu actually
won and became an elected federal official, would the secret Fed
implant start transmitting positive messages into her head?Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 10.30.04 |
IF
BOB
SMITH ENDORSES ... KERRY?? Do you remember former US Senator
Bob Smith (R-NH)? SATURDAY
OPEN THREAD. Face off .. your choice of topics.
TRACKING THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. Here's the picture as we head (thankfully!!!) into the final weekend...
The
more things change, the more they stay the same. US
SENATE RACE UPDATES. SOUTH DAKOTA (KOTA-TV/Zogby): Former
Congressman John Thune (R) - 49%, US Senator Tom Daschle (D) -
46%. COLORADO (Zogby): Attorney General Ken Salazar (D) - 53%,
brewery magnate Pete Coors (R) - 42%. WASHINGTON (Strategic Vision):
US Senator Patty Murray (D) - 49%, Congressman George Nethercutt
(R) - 41%. GOVERNOR
RACE UPDATES. MISSOURI (Kansas City Star/Research 2000): Secretary
of State Matt Blunt (R) - 46.5%, State Auditor Claire McCaskill
(D) - 44%. WASHINGTON (Seattle Post-Intelligencer/Mason-Dixon):
Attorney General Chris Gregoire (D) - 48%, State Sen. Dino Rossi
(R) - 43%. WASHINGTON (Strategic Vision): Gregoire-46%, Rossi-42%. HOUSE
RACE UPDATES.
...
AND YET ANOTHER BIZARRE CAMPAIGN STORY FROM FLORIDA. In Florida
-- yes, again -- 18-year-old Steven Soper is under arrest because
of his political views in support of President Bush. Well, sorta.
When Soper's girlfriend of two year told him she thought she was
going to vote for Kerry, an argument ensured. According to the
police report, Soper became so upset with her that that "he
dragged" her into his home and "beat her and held her
hostage with a screwdriver." The attack "led to a standoff"
with the police, which led to Soper being shot with an electric
Taser gun and arrested. The girlfriend was reportedly shaken but
not seriously injured. "He's crazy about Bush," she
told the Palm Beach Post. She could have ended her sentence
after just the first two words. Perhaps Mr. Soper will get a chance
behind bars to meet Mr. Seltzer. FRIDAY
OPEN THREAD. Prediction time. I'd suggest that all of our
regulars post their predictions in this thread -- and be sure
to cover all of the top Governor, US Senate and US House races.
On November 2, we will all finally learn which of you are the
smart ones and which of you are simply the partisan cheerleaders. TRACKING THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. Less than a week to go and the poll numbers keep rolling in. Here are the latest ...
The
Washington Post reported that the number of battleground states
is surprisingly expanding. Kerry finds himself having to unexpectedly
defend Hawaii (note: two of the larger pro-Dem 527 groups went
on the air Wednesday with anti-Bush spots in the Aloha State).
However, the newspaper reports that Kerry is suddenly increasing
his efforts and spending in two states -- Arkansas and West Virginia
-- that they had previously thought unwinnable.
GOVERNOR
RACE UPDATES. WASHINGTON (KING-TV/SurveyUSA): Attorney General
Chris Gregoire (D) - 49%, State Sen. Dino Rossi (R) - 47%. HOUSE
RACE UPDATES. INDIANA CD-2 (South Bend Tribune/Research
2000): Congressman Chris Chocola (R) - 55%, attorney Joe Donnelly
(D) - 40%. KENTUCKY CD-3 (Louisville Courier-Journal/Bluegrass):
Congresswoman Anne Northup (R) - 57%, Jefferson County Clerk of
Courts Tony Miller (D) - 33%. NEBRASKA CD-3 (Omaha World Herald):
Congressman Tom Osborne (R) - 86%, hairdresser Donna Anderson
(D) - 8%. Why did anyone bother to poll this race? (Note to
our bloggers: Look for Arch-C to predict a stunning Anderson upset
victory.) ANOTHER
BIZARRE STORY FROM THE TRAIL. In Maryland, State Senator E.J.
Pipkin -- the GOP nominee for US Senate -- is having to deal with
a political stalker. A former police officer who apparently has
an axe to grind with Pipkin has placed a large "Vote Pipkin"
sign on top of his car ... and then covered his car with hand-drawn
swastikas. Pipkin's wife is Jewish and he is rather upset by the
guy's actions. He's already obtained a restraining order from
a local judge that bars the man from coming within a set distance
of Pipkin, his family, and his campaign offices. So, for now,
the man continues to drive his car around in the general vicinity
of Pipkin events (but just far enough away to not get arrested)
and parks the vehicle in visible spots along the highway.
If
you'd like to send the 1/23d any care packages, please address
the packages to Lt Crabtree, 1/23 H&S Co, Unit 41900,
FPO, AP 96426-1900 ... and James will ensure that whatever
you ship gets distributed to the Marines in the 1/23. If you'd
like to read more about our adopted 1/23 Marine battalion in Iraq,
please click here. THURSDAY
OPEN THREAD. Talk amongst yourselves. TRACKING THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. Lots of new polls coming out every day. A dizzying amount of conflicting raw data, but here they are ...
So,
who is really winning?
GOVERNOR
RACE UPDATES. MISSOURI (SurveyUSA): Secretary of State Matt
Blunt (R) - 52%, State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) - 44%. INDIANA
(Research 2000): Former US Budget Director Mitch Daniels (R) -
48%, Governor Joe Kernan (D) - 45%. NEW HAMPSHIRE (Franklin Pierce
College): Governor Craig Benson (R) and former UNH Trustee John
Lynch (D) tied at 45% apiece. HOUSE
RACE UPDATES. LOUISIANA CD-3 (Verne Kennedy): Lobbyist Billy
Tauzin III (R) - 32%, State Sen. Craig Romero (R) - 16%, lobbyist
Charlie Melancon (D) -16%, State Rep. Damon Baldone (D) - 5%,
former Congressional aide Charmaine Caccioppi (D) - 5%. LOUISIANA
CD-7 (Verne Kennedy): Physician Charles Boustany Jr. (R) - 31%,
State Senator Willie Mount (D) - 22%, State Senator Don Cravins
(D) - 18%, Lafayette Parish School Board member David Thibodaux
(R) - 10%. MISSOURI CD-5 (Kansas City Star/MRI): Former
Kansas City Mayor Emanuel Cleaver (D) - 46%, businesswoman Jeanne
Patterson (R) - 41%. NEBRASKA CD-1 (Omaha World Herald):
Former Lincoln City Councilman Jeff Fortenberry (R) - 42%, State
Senator Matt Connealy (D) - 38%. NEBRASKA CD-2 (Omaha World
Herald): Congressman Lee Terry (R) - 60%, State Senator Nancy
Thompson (D) - 30%. BIZARRE
DEBATE PERFORMANCES. Two more folks will clearly be joining
US Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY) in the "2004 Debate Hall of
Fame" for bizarrely bad performances. In Pennsylvania's open
CD-8 race, attorney WEDNESDAY
OPEN THREAD. Have at it. THE POLITICS1 ELECTORAL FORECAST - PART TWO. We pick up where we left off yesterday (oh yeah, and we forgot to include Maryland when we originally posted Part One yesterday, but we've gone back and added it in). So, let's continue ... NEBRASKA - US HOUSE: Former Lincoln City Councilman Jeff Fortenberry (R) will win the open CD-1 seat by a decent margin. In CD-2, Dems had hopes of ousting Congressman Lee Terry (R). State Senator Nancy Thompson (D) has run a respectable race -- and Dems have claimed she was within striking reach -- but she will fall far short of her goal. NEVADA - US SENATE: Senate Minority Whip Harry Reid (D) will have no problem whipping his Religious Right opponent by a wide margin. US HOUSE: CD-3 Congressman Jon Porter (R) was expecting a competitive race from wealthy gaming industry executive Tom Gallagher (D). Gallagher has spent a lot of money -- and at one point narrowed much of the gap -- but Porter regained his footing and should hold on by a comfortable margin.
NEW JERSEY - US HOUSE: Several challengers -- including Anne Wolfe (D) in CD-5, Steve Brozak (D) in CD-7, and Bill Spadea (R) in CD-12 -- have made spirited runs ... but all of the incumbents will win big again. NEW MEXICO - US HOUSE: Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) in CD-1 is yet again facing a tough challenge from State Senate President Richard Romero (D). Romero has run a strong campaign, and this is a swing district. Still, Wilson will survive by a very close margin. In CD-2, Congressman Steve Pearce (R) is also facing a competitive race, but he'll win by a decent amount.
NORTH DAKOTA - Think of ND as an incumbent "safe zone." Governor John Hoeven (R), US Senator Byron Dorgan (D) and Congressman Earl Pomeroy (D) will all win re-election by wide margins. OHIO - US SENATE: Incumbent George Voinovich (R) will win another term by a landslide margin. US HOUSE: Congressional incumbents in CD-1, CD-3, CD-4, CD-9 and CD-14 are all facing competitive races of varying degrees, but all of the Ohio incumbents will surivive. OKLAHOMA - US SENATE: Next to Florida, this Senate race is the hardest to measure. Congressman Brad Carson (D) is a conservative, and probably the best prospect his party could have placed into this open seat race. Former Congressman Tom Coburn (R) is hardcore Religious Right conservative who speaks his mind -- sometimes thoughtfully, sometimes recklessly. Coburn's own party leadership doesn't particularly like him (but it didn't matter much, as he beat their hand-picked candidate in the primary). If Coburn was more circumspect, he'd win this race easily. However, Coburn isn't and the race is thus neck-and-neck. Despite his failings as a candidate, Coburn will eke out a very narrow victory. US HOUSE: State Rep. Dan Boren (D) will easily win the open CD-2 seat.
RHODE ISLAND - No competitive races worth watching here. SOUTH CAROLINA - US SENATE: The GOP will score a pickup here, as Congressman Jim DeMint (R) will defeat State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum (D) by a comfortable margin. DeMint has made some gaffes in recent weeks, but Tenenbaum's initial perceived strength appears to have been overrated. US HOUSE: What's old is what's new. Former Congressman Bob Inglis (R) will win DeMint's open seat (which was actually Inglis' seat before DeMint held it).
TENNESSEE - US HOUSE: Congressman Lincoln Davis (D) will handily survive his rematch in CD-4 from Tullahoma Alderwoman Janice Bowling (R). Nothing else worth watching in the state. TEXAS
- US HOUSE: House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's inspired re-redistricting
in Texas has put several Democratic incumbents at risk. Then again,
that was
VERMONT - GOVERNOR: Incumbent Jim Douglas (R) is a GOP moderate who will have no problem overcoming a big Kerry victory here. He'll defeat Burlington Mayor Peter Clavelle (D) by a comfortable margin. US SENATE: Vice President Dick Cheney may want Senator Pat Leahy (D) to "F*** Off" -- to use his oft repeated quote -- but Vermont voters won't grant his wish. Leahy will crush millionaire businessman Jack McMullen (R). US HOUSE: Congressman Bernie Sanders (Independent) is popular and will win again by a solid margin. VIRGINIA - US HOUSE: Dems are making an aggressive run at the open CD-2 seat. While the region has a huge military population, Iraq War veteran David Ashe (D) will not be able to overcome the district's strong GOP tilt. State Del. Thelma Drake (R) will win the seat.
WEST VIRGINA - GOVERNOR: Secretary of State Joe Manchin (D) will win this open race by a very wide margin over developer Monty Warner (R). US HOUSE: CD-2 is somewhat competitive, at best, but all the incumbents are safe.
WYOMING - US HOUSE: Congresswoman Barbara Cubin (R) is potentially vulnerable, but only in a GOP primary. She'll have no problem winning another term. Perhaps -- if she makes more of an effort to show up in Congress for votes in her next term -- Cubin's perceived vulnerabilities will start to fade. THE
THE SCORECARD - PRESIDENCY: Dem pickup. GOVERNORSHIPS: GOP +1. US SENATE: No net change. Look for Dem pressure on Senator Linc Chafee (R-RI) to switch parties and give Dems control next year if Edwards is the VP. US HOUSE: No net change. (Note: Feel free to re-check my math on all these picks.) Okay,
my cards are all on the table. And, yes, I'm a Dem ... and, yes,
I'm personally supporting Kerry (actually, I'm the Broward County
Co-Chair of the Kerry Legal Team for Election Day) ... but this
is how I'm calling the races. Agree or disagree, but you can add
up my scorecard on November 2nd and see how these picks match
up with the end results. TUESDAY
OPEN THREAD. Use this to discuss everything else that's going
on in the world of politics.
THE POLITICS1 ELECTORAL FORECAST - PART ONE. So, at long last, here are our fearless predictions for the upcoming elections. We'll go state by state covering all of the gubernatorial and US Senate races, plus the key US House contests. If a race isn't mentioned, it's because we just don't see it as highly competitive. And, at the end, we'll get around to predicting the big race. Do we have any inside info? No. Did I just pick all the candidates I liked? No. So ... agree or disagree with my picks, but we'll all know how good or bad they really were by the middle of next week. ALABAMA - US SENATE: Incumbent Richard Shelby (R) will win re-election in a landslide over his gadfly opponent. US HOUSE: As for the Congressional contests, all of the incumbents will be back for another term next year.
ARIZONA - US SENATE: Incumbent John McCain (R) only faces nominal opposition. US HOUSE: In CD-1, Coconino County Supervisor Paul Babbitt (D) never proved to be the threat that national Dems had anticipated against Congressman Rick Renzi (R). In CD-2, Congressman Trent Franks (R) will win re-election by a wider margin than he first did two years ago. ARKANSAS - US SENATE: Incumbent Blanche Lincoln (D) should have no problem scoring a comfortable victory over her vastly under-financed and little-known opponent. US HOUSE: Congressmen Vic Snyder (D) and John Boozman (R) drew credible opponents, but both men should easily win. CALIFORNIA - US SENATE: Former Secretary of State Bill Jones (R) never really threatened the re-election chances of US Senator Barbara Boxer (D). Jim Gray (Libertarian) will probably score one of his party's best showings in any race in the nation, but still finish in the single digits. US HOUSE: In CD-3, former Congressman Dan Lundgren (R) will easily win this open seat. In CD-20, former State Senator Jim Costa (D) will win this open seat. State Senator Roy Ashburn (R) has narrowed the gap in recent weeks, but the seat will stay in Dem hands. COLORADO
DELAWARE - GOVERNOR: Former Judge Bill Lee (R) is a credible, thoughtful candidate -- but his best chance was four years ago, when the GOP establishment rejected him in the primary by a margin of less than 50 votes. Governor Ruth Ann Minner (D) isn't exciting, but she's well-liked and will win re-election by a decent margin. FLORIDA
HAWAII - US SENATE: Incumbent Dan Inouye (D) should have no problem cruising to a big victory for an eighth term in the Senate. US HOUSE: Former CNN Asia news anchor Dalton Tanonaka (R) appeared to be an attractive candidate in CD-1, but he won't come close to defeating liberal Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D). As an aside, look for Duke Bainum to win the open race for Honolulu Mayor. IDAHO - No competitive races worth watching here. ILLINOIS - US SENATE: This is the most obvious Dem pickup race to call. State Senator Barack Obama (D) will defeat bombastic former Ambassador Alan Keyes (R) by a landslide margin, paving the way for Keyes to move back to his real home in Maryland. US HOUSE: College professor Dan Lipinski (D) will easily win the CD-3 being vacated by his father (and done so in a rather underhanded manner to give the seat to his son without any real election contest), but watch for him to draw a real opponent in two years. In CD-8, business consultant Melissa Bean (D) will score a major upset when she defeats Congressman Phil Crane (R) -- the most senior GOP member of the House. Crane's inattention to the district caused his problems, and many of his GOP colleagues in DC clearly do not think much of him. Still, this is a GOP district, so Bean is likely to be a "one-termer."
IOWA - US SENATE: Incumbent Chuck Grassley (R) will roll to a massive re-election victory. US HOUSE: Congressmen Jim Nussle (R) in CD-1 and Leonard Boswell (D) in CD-3 both face competitive challenges, but both will survive. Nussle will win by a bigger margin than will Boswell. KANSAS - US SENATE: Incumbent Sam Brownback (R) will win big over his three minor opponents. US HOUSE: Congressman Dennis Moore (D) will yet again survive another tough challenge. As always, it will be rather close -- but he'll survive to fight another day.
LOUISIANA
- US SENATE: MAINE - No competitive races worth watching here. MARYLAND - US Senate: Incumbent Barbara Mikulski (D) may be little, but she'll win by a big margin. No competitive US House races worth watching here. MASSACHUSETTS - No competitive races worth watching here. MICHIGAN - Populist former State Senator and surgeon Joe Schwarz (R) will win the open CD-7 seat by a comfortable margin over his four opponents. MINNESOTA - US HOUSE: Child safety advocate Patty Wetterling (D) has run a hard-charging race against Congressman Mark Kennedy (R) in CD-6, but he'll still win another term by several points. That victory should help position Kennedy to run for the US Senate in two years. Dems once had hopes of running a real race against Congressman John Kline (R), but he'll win easily in CD-2. MISSISSIPPI - No competitive races worth watching here.
MONTANA - GOVERNOR: Wealthy farmer Brian Schweitzer (D) started this open contest as the frontrunner and has remained so ever since. Secretary of State Bob Brown (R) is liked and trusted, but just won't come close enough to stop Schweizer's momentum. Dem pickup. US HOUSE: Not a competitive race. TOMORROW:
In Part Two, we'll cover the races in Nebraska to Wyoming ...
and the all-important Presidential race. So, how are these picks
stacking up against yours? MONDAY
OPEN THREAD. Whatever.
TRACKING
THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. FLORIDA (Sayfie Review/Insider Advantage):
Bush and Kerry tied at 46% each, and Nader at 2%. HAWAII (Honolulu
Advertiser): Bush-43.4%, Kerry-42.6%. IOWA (Iowa Newspaper
Assoc/Central Surveys): Kerry-46%, Bush-45%. MICHIGAN (EPIC/MRA):
Kerry-49%, Bush-43%, Nader-1%. NEW JERSEY (Fairleigh Dickinson
Univ.): Kerry-47%, Bush-41%, Nader-1%. OHIO (CNN/USA Today/Gallup):
Kerry-50%, Bush-44%. OHIO (Ohio University): Kerry-49%, Bush-43%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College):
Kerry-48%, Bush-46%. PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac College): Kerry-47%,
Bush-41%. WEEKEND
OPEN THREAD. I'm busy writing my predictions for the top races
around the country (they'll be online on Monday) ... so discuss
whatever you'd like until then.
TRACKING
THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. Today's update will be shorter than
normal as I'm busy studying for a complex test I'm taking Friday
morning related to my "real" job ... but, here's the
abbreviated latest news. COLORADO (KUSA-TV/SurveyUSA): Bush-52%,
Kerry-45%. In related news, the same poll shows that the proposed
state initiative to scrap the winner-takes-all system for the
state's Electoral College votes appears to be headed for certain
defeat. FLORIDA (Quinnipiac College): Bush-45%, Kerry-43%. IOWA
(WHO-TV/SurveyUSA): Bush-51%, Kerry-45%. MICHIGAN (WDIV-TV/SurveyUSA):
Kerry-51%, Bush-44%. NORTH CAROLINA (Asheville Citizen-Times/Mason-Dixon):
Bush-51%, Kerry-43%, Badnarik-1%. WISCONSIN (University of Minnesota):
Bush-48%, Kerry-47%, Nader-2%. FYI: We just updated our
P2004 Ballot Access page, so check it out
to see which third party candidates qualified for ballot spots
in the various states.
REPORT FROM IRAQ: KEEP OFF THE GRASS. Our latest report from Iraq by our friend and special correspondent Lt. James Crabtree of the 1/23 Marines in northwestern Iraq.
If
you'd like to send the 1/23d any care packages, please address
the packages to Lt Crabtree, 1/23 H&S Co, Unit 41900,
FPO, AP 96426-1900 ... and James will ensure that whatever
you ship gets distributed to the Marines in the 1/23. If you'd
like to read more about our adopted 1/23 Marine battalion in Iraq,
please click here. FRIDAY
OPEN THREAD. I just checked our site traffic stats yesterday
and saw that Politics1 is now recording an astounding 35.6
million hits, 1.85 million page views,
and over 1 million UNIQUE user sessions monthly
at our current rate. That's a new record for Politics1. Not bad
for a little indy site ... so my appreciative thanks to all of
you for your great support!!
TRACKING
US
SENATE RACE UPDATES. ALASKA (KTUU-TV/Ivan Moore): Former Governor
Tony Knowles (D) - 47%, US Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) - 45%, frequent
candidate Jim Sykes (Green) - 1%. GOVERNOR
RACE UPDATES. NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG): Governor Craig Benson
(R) - 50%, former UNH Board of Regents Chair John Lynch (D) -
44%. Benson seems to be regaining a modest lead in recent days.
Toss-Up. INDIANA (WXIN-TV/SurveyUSA): Former US Budget Director
Mitch Daniels (R) - 51%, Governor Joe Kernan (D) - 43%. Leans
GOP. US
THURSDAY
OPEN THREAD. Your turn.
TRACKING
THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. Lots of new state polls out ... and
many show conflicting results. COLORADO (CNN/USA Today/Gallup):
Bush-51%, Kerry-45%, Nader-1% among LV's ... and Bush-49%, Kerry-47%,
Nader-1% among RV's. MISSOURI (KSDK-TV/SurveyUSA): Bush-51%, Kerry-45%.
NEVADA (KVBC-TV/SurveyUSA): Bush-52%, Kerry-45%. NEW HAMPSHIRE
(Suffolk University): Kerry-46%, Bush-41%. NEW JERSEY (WABC-TV/SurveyUSA):
Kerry-51%, Bush-43%. NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac College): Kerry-49%,
Bush-45%. NEW JERSEY (Newark Star-Ledger/Rutgers Univ.):
Kerry-48%, Bush-38%. OHIO (WCPO-TV/SurveyUSA): Kerry-49%, Bush-47%.
OHIO (Univ of Cincinnati): Kerry-48%, Bush-46%. OHIO (FOX News/Opinion
Dynamics): Bush-49%, Kerry-44%. OHIO (ABC News): Kerry-50%, Bush-47%.
OREGON (Portland Tribune/Research 2000): Kerry-50%, Bush-44%,
Other-3%. VIRGINIA (WSLS-TV/SurveyUSA): Bush-50%, Kerry-46%. WASHINGTON
(KING-TV/SurveyUSA): Kerry-52%, Bush-45%. US
US
HOUSE RACE UPDATES. PENNSYLVANIA CD-17 (ARG): Congressman
Tim Holden (D) - 48%, attorney Scott Paterno (R) - 36%, musician
Russ Diamond (Libt) - 1%. Holden is a perennial NRCC target, but
it looks like he's going to survive again in the GOP-leaning district.
Paterno is the son of the legendary Penn State football coach.
DEM Favored. REPUBLICAN
SEX VS. DEMOCRATIC SEX. ABC News actually conducted a poll
this week on the comparative sex lives of Democrats and Republicans.
56% of Republicans and 47% of Democrats said they were "very
satisfied with their sex life." Also, 33% of Dems and 26%
of Republicans said they had faked orgasms. If I'm reading this
right, I think that implies Republicans have better sex lives
(or, at least, have set the bar on "satisfaction" at
a much lower mark). Nader, presumably, will call a press conference
to denounce the Dems and media for trying to block him from having
sex (although I think Nader sex would likely be a solo act with
a full-length mirror). No word about Libertarian sex lives ...
but I'd think that would probably involve a trapeze, numerous
consenting adults, some handguns, a bunch of marijuana, and Mike
Badnarik giving participants a lengthy lecture on constitutional
rights. WEDNESDAY
OPEN THREAD. C'mon guys ... a little better behavior in the
blog threads. Please. Play nicely or I'll send y'all to "time-out."
Postscript (that will only mean something to our regular bloggers):
Through IP addresses, we were able to identify the faux racist
SLIM JIM blogger was really a screen name of a JHU college senior.
Case closed.
TRACKING
THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. US
SENATE RACE UPDATES. FLORIDA (WFOR-TV/SurveyUSA): Former US
Housing Secretary Mel Martinez (R) - 49%, former State Education
Commissioner Betty Castor (D) - 47%. GOVERNOR
RACE UPDATES. NEW HAMPSHIRE (Concord Monitor/Research
2000): Governor Craig Benson (R) - 48%, former UNH Board of Regents
Chair John Lynch (D) - 44%. The lead here is shifting back and
forth every few days. Toss-Up. NORTH CAROLINA (WBTV-TV/SurveyUSA):
Governor Mike Easley (D) - 52%, former State Senate Minority Leader
Patrick Ballantine (R) - 40%. Democrat Favored. TUESDAY
OPEN THREAD. In 2002, I didn't write any election predictions
because folks said they preferred it then. Well, when I asked
yesterday about 2004, the vote was like 95% FOR predictions. So,
yes, I'll start writing them up. Look for them to appear early
next week.
TRACKING
GOVERNOR
RACE UPDATE. MONTANA (Montana State Univ.): Farmer/businessman
Brian Schweitzer (D) - 43%, Secretary of State Bob Brown (R) -
28%. Something seems really off with these MSU numbers, as the
same poll last month showed Brown only trailing by 4-points --
and nothing controversial has taken place in that race since then.
Leans Dem. US
BUSH
IN '88, '92, '00, '04, '08 ...? Nope, according to Florida
Governor Jeb Bush (R), he will not be a candidate for President
in 2008 no matter what happens to his brother George on November
2nd. "I'm not going to run for president in 2008. That's
not my interest," said Jeb to ABC News on Sunday. Jeb's mother,
Barbara Bush, made some comments at this summer's Republican National
Convention that she expected that would be the last convention
nominating one of her children for President. "It's enough,"
she said at the time.
REPORT FROM IRAQ: SANDSTORMS, POLLING PLACES, AND TEXAS CONGRESSMEN. Our latest report from Iraq by our friend and special correspondent Lt. James Crabtree of the 1/23 Marines in northwestern Iraq.
If
you'd like to send the 1/23d any care packages, please address
the packages to Lt Crabtree, 1/23 H&S Co, Unit 41900,
FPO, AP 96426-1900 ... and James will ensure that whatever
you ship gets distributed to the Marines in the 1/23. If you'd
like to read more about our adopted 1/23 Marine battalion in Iraq,
please click here. MONDAY
OPEN THREAD. Just an idea, but use today's thread to name
the sub-Presidential campaign websites you like best ... regardless
of whom you support..
WEEKEND
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Mason-Dixon:
Bush-50%, Kerry-43%.
Pete
Coors (R) - 46%, Others-1%. FLORIDA (Zogby):
Former Education Commissioner Betty Castor (D) - 48%, former
US Housing Secretary Mel Martinez (R) - 45%, Others-2%. (New
York Times): Castor-47%, Martinez-44%. ILLINOIS
(WBBM-TV/SurveyUSA): State Senator Barack Obama (D) - 66%, former
Ambassador Alan Keyes (R) - 27%. INDIANA (WXIN-TV/SurveyUSA):
US Senator Evan Bayh (D) - 61%, frequent candidate Marvin Scott
(R) - 34%. IOWA (Zogby): US Senator Chuck Grassley
(R) - 69%, former State Senator Art Small (D) - 23%, Others
- 2%. KANSAS (Kansas City Star): US Senator
Sam Brownback (R) - 59%, railroad engineer/union lobbyist Lee
Jones (D) - 26%. LOUISIANA (MRI): Congressman
David Vitter (R) - 47%, Congressman Chris John (D) - 21%, State
Treasurer John Kennedy (D) - 15%. NEVADA (Zogby):
US Senator Harry Reid (D) - 56%, anti-gay activist Richard Ziser
(R) - 36%, Others - 1%. OHIO (Zogby): US Senator
George Voinovich (R) - 55%, State Senator Eric Fingerhut (D)
- 35%, Others-1%. PENNSYLVANIA (Zogby): US
Senator Arlen Specter (R) - 54%, Congressman Joe Hoeffel (D)
- 31%, Others - 3%. UTAH (Deseret Morning News/DJ&A):
US Senator Bob Bennett (R) - 65%, former Attorney General Paul
Van Dam (D) - 22%, frequent candidate Gary Van Horn (Const)
- 2%. WISCONSIN (Zogby): US Senator Russ Feingold
(D) - 57%, construction executive Tim Michels (R) - 37%. 
GOVERNOR
RACE UPDATES. INDIANA (WXIN-TV/SurveyUSA):
Former US Budget Director Mitch Daniels (R) - 52%, Governor
Joe Kernan (D) - 44%. NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG):
Governor Craig Benson (R) - 52%, former UNH Trustee John Lynch
(D) - 44%. (UNH): Benson-47%, Lynch-42%. (Research 2000): Benson-48%,
Lynch-47%. UTAH (Deseret Morning News/DJ&A):
Former Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr. (R) - 54%, former law school
dean Scott Matheson Jr. (D) - 38%, frequent candidate Ken Larsen
(Personal Choice) - 1%.
ILLINOIS
CD-8: The DCCC is on the air in the final days with
a $500,000 TV buy for challenger Melissa Bean (D). The DCCC
spot attacks Congressman Phil Crane (R). The NRCC countered
with a new anti-Bean spot. IOWA CD-3 (KCCI-TV/Research
2000): Congressman Leonard Boswell (D) - 52%, attorney Stan
Thompson (R) - 43%. MAINE CD-1 (WCSH-TV/SurveyUSA):
Congressman Tom Allen (D) - 55%, former State Senator Charlie
Summers (R) - 39%. MAINE CD-2 (WCSH-TV/SurveyUSA):
Congressman Mike Michaud (D) - 53%, development executive Brian
Hamel (R) - 40%. NEW MEXICO CD-1 (Albuquerque
Journal): Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) - 51%, State Senate
President Richard Romero (D) - 43%. NEW MEXICO CD-1
(Albuquerque Journal): Congressman Steve Pearce (R) - 50%, former
State Rep. Gary King (D) - 38%. PENNSYLVANIA CD-13
(Keystone): State Senator Allyson Schwartz (D) - 53%, physician
Melissa Brown (R) - 35%. UTAH CD-1 (Deseret
Morning News/DJ&A): Congressman Rob Bishop (R) - 64%, Logan
City Council Chair Steve Thompson (D) - 21%, Charles Johnston
(Const) - 2%. UTAH CD-2 (Salt Lake Tribune/Valley
Research): Congressman Jim Matheson (D) - 44%, former State
Rep. John Swallow (R) - 39%. UTAH CD-2 (Deseret Morning News/DJ&A):
Matheson-51%, Swallow-41%, Others-3%. UTAH CD-3
(Deseret Morning News/DJ&A): Congressman Chris Cannon (R)
- 55%, police captain Beau Babka (D) - 25%, Others-4%.
WASHINGTON CD-5 (KHQ-TV/SurveyUSA): State Rep. Cathy
McMorris (R) - 55%, hotel management company owner Don Barbieri
(D) - 38%.
DEATH
OF THE REFORM PARTY. Populist billionaire Ross Perot's once
impressive Reform Party USA is clearly in its death knells. Just
check out the official homepage of the 
THIS
IS ANY INDICATOR ... Broward County, Florida -- which happens
to be where Politics1 is based -- is the Democratic stronghold
and second most populous county in Florida. In 2000, Gore carried
the county by a margin of roughly 250,000 votes -- nearly enough
to give him a statewide win. However, in 2000, the state's turnout
average was 67% and Broward only had a 57% turnout. Voter interest
in this election, however, appears to be sharply up. In 2000,
the Sun-Sentinel reports that 127,000 voters cast absentee
or early ballots in Broward. By contrast, as of the close of voting
on Friday -- with three more "early voting" days to
go and with four more days until the deadline for absentee ballots
to be mailed back -- 215,000 Broward voters had already cast ballots.
This has to be bad news for the Bush campaign. According to the
Florida Secretary of State's office, some Florida counties are
now projecting an expected turnout in the astounding 80-85% range.
A Miami Herald survey on Friday also found that Kerry
is holding a comfortable lead in Miami-Dade County. A big Broward
and Miami-Dade turnout could be enough for a Kerry victory in
the state -- as those two counties have a combined total of more
than two million registered voters -- unless those Dem votes are
offset by large enough numbers for Bush elsewhere in the state.
And -- FYI -- if turnout in runs anywhere even close to these
projections, then the polls we're seeing (regardless of whom they
are projecting in the lead) may be wildly off the mark because
they appear to be undersampling huge chunks of the electorate.
Just some thoughts to ponder.
BIN
LADEN RESURFACES. Terrorist network leader Osama bin Laden
released a new videotape on Friday in which he had a direct message
for the American voters. "Your security is not in the hands
of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda," he said, explaining that future
actions by the al-Qaeda terror network towards the US would depend
on US policies in the Middle East. In the video, bin Laden looked
surprisingly healthy. To help prove that the video was new, he
even referenced recent election problems in Florida -- and worked
in a few snide jabs at Bush. However, the real motive behind the
video seemed to be a simple desire to subtly gloat that -- despite
Bush's famed "We'll smoke him out" boast -- he is still
free, able to communicate, and still in control of al-Qaeda. Neither
Kerry nor Bush appeared to politicize the tape, as both simply
vowed that they would work to bring bin Laden to justice and defeat
al Qaeda.
Smith
-- who briefly left the GOP four years ago to pursue the Constitution
Party's Presidential nomination (because he complained the Republican
Party was insufficiently conservative) -- was defeated for re-election
in 2002 and moved to Florida earlier this year to sell real estate.
Smith unexpectedly weighed into the Presidential race Friday by
endorsing John Kerry for President. "Because of the courage
and character you demonstrated in Vietnam, I believe you when
you say that you'll do a better job than President Bush to win
the peace in Iraq, as well as to win the war against terrorism
... President Bush has failed to restrain federal spending, sending
our deficit spinning into the stratosphere. I well remember that
you were one of a handful of Democrats who crossed the aisle to
forge a bipartisan coalition in the Senate to balance the federal
budget ... John, for each of these reasons I believe President
Bush has failed our country and my party. Accordingly, I want
you to know that when I go into the booth next Tuesday I am going
to cast my vote for you," explained Smith.
SEND
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the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office, etc.,
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NORTH
CAROLINA (Raleigh News & Observer/Research 2000): Congressman
Richard Burr (R) - 47%, former White House Chief of Staff Erskine
Bowles (D) - 46%. WISCONSIN (Zogby): US Senator Russ Feingold
(D) - 59%, construction executive Tim Michels (R) - 36%. OHIO
(Zogby): US Senator George Voinovich (R) - 58%, State Sen. Eric
Fingerhut (D) - 27%. IOWA (Zogby): US Senator Chuck Grassley (R)
- 68%, former State Senator Art Small (D) - 27%. FLORIDA (Zogby):
Former US Housing Secretary Mel Martinez (R) and former Education
Commissioner Betty Castor (D) tied at 45% each. FLORIDA (Insider
Advantage): Castor-46%, Martinez-43%. FLORIDA (Quinnipiac University):
Martinez-49%, Castor - 46%. ILLINOIS (Research 2000): State Senator
Barack Obama (D) - 67%, former Ambassador Alan Keyes (R) - 25%.
KENTUCKY: You can tell US Senator Jim Bunning (R) is getting desperate
in his self-destructive re-election race against State Senator
Dan Mongiardo (D) in these final days. The latest tactic from
the Bunning camp: imply that Mongiardo is gay. State Senate President
David Williams (R) -- a Bunning surrogate speaker on the trail
-- frequently uses this line: "We don't want to trade that
one-two punch for a limp wrist." State Senator Elizabeth
Tori (R) -- another Bunning supporter -- told a GOP audience this
week that she has served with Mongiardo and "I'm not even
sure the 'man' applies to him in the word 'gentleman.'" Williams
and Tori both claim they are only trying to imply the Dem is a
weak person, and not that he is gay. Mongiardo responded that
"Bunning has sunk so far down in the mud that now he's dragging
other people into the mud with him."
LOUISIANA
CD-3 (New Orleans Times-Picayune/Verne Kennedy): State Sen. Craig
Romero (R) - 26%, lobbyist Billy Tauzin III (R) - 25%, lobbyist
Charlie Melancon (D) -14%, State Rep. Damon Baldone (D) - 7%,
former Congressional aide Charmaine Caccioppi (D) - 6%. Major
movement by Romero, who trailed Congressional scion Tauzin by
16-points in the last VK poll. SOUTH DAKOTA (KOTA-TV/Zogby): Former
State Senator Larry Diedrich (R) - 47%, Congresswoman Stephanie
Herseth (D) - 46%. Herseth has led in all polls until this one.
Diedrich gaining or an anomaly? VIRGINIA CD-10: Surprisingly,
this race must be drawing into the competitive category. How else
can one explain why Congressman Frank Wolf (R) is suddenly on
the air with a TV spot blasting former Congressional aide James
Socas (D) as "carpetbagger from California" who owns
a home in California but only rents an apartment in Virginia.
The spot even has a comical surfer who says "Dude, Surf's
Up, Socas!" Wolf, a 24-year incumbent, has raised nearly
$1.2 million. Socas has raised $566,000. COLORADO CD-3 (KUSA-TV/SurveyUSA):
State Rep. John Salazar (D) - 48%, former State Natural Resources
Director Greg Walcher (R) - 45%. WASHINGTON CD-8 (KING-TV/SurveyUSA):
King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) - 49%, radio talk show host
Dave Ross (D) - 43%.
ANOTHER
BIZARRE CAMPAIGN STORY. In Florida, a 46-year-old man tried
to drive his car up onto the sidewalk this week in Sarasota when
he saw Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R) and a group of campaign
supporters standing at an intersection waving at motorists. Witnesses
told police that a silver colored car sped up and hurtled onto
a sidewalk, heading straight for Harris, before quickly swerving
away at the last moment and driving away. According to published
reports, real estate investor Barry Seltzer later admitted he
tried to ram his car into Harris and her friends. "I intimidated
them with my car. I was exercising my political expression,"
said Seltzer to the police. He was arrested and charged with felony
aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. Seltzer may also face
federal felony charges because of Harris' governmental position.
A state judge ordered Seltzer held for now without bond. Harris,
meanwhile, is already back campaigning on that same street corner
again. "We love being on the street corner. I think this
was an isolated incident," said Harris to the Sarasota
Herald Tribune. 
US
SENATE RACE UPDATES. SOUTH DAKOTA (Sioux Falls Argus-Leader/KELO-TV):
US Senator Tom Daschle (D) - 49%, former Congressman John Thune
(R) - 47%. WASHINGTON (KING-TV/SurveyUSA): US Senator Patty Murray
(D) - 55%, Congressman George Nethercutt (R) - 41%. FLORIDA: An
interesting development in the TV ad wars. While Republicans in
many hot Senate races are airing attack spots trying to link their
Dem opponents to "liberal" John Kerry, polling in Florida
must be showing that ties to Kerry are a plus. Betty Castor (D)
is on the air with a new TV spot that pictures Kerry and says
that Castor promises to be a vote in the US Senate in support
of Kerry's agenda. NEVADA (Zogby): US Senator Harry Reid (D) -
59%, anti-gay activist Richard Ziser (R) - 30%. WISCONSIN (Zogby):
US Senator Russ Feingold (D) - 57%, construction executive Tim
Michels (R) - 38%. OHIO (Zogby): US Senator George Voinovich (R)
- 54%, State Sen. Eric Fingerhut (D) - 32%.
REPORT
FROM IRAQ: IRAQI SPECIAL FORCES ... AND A LIBERTARIAN CANDIDATE
IN THE 1/23. Before we get to our latest report from Iraq
by our friend and special correspondent Lt. James Crabtree of
the 1/23 Marines in northwestern Iraq, we learned an interesting
political tie to one of the guys in the 1/23. It turns out that
LCpl 
US
SENATE RACE UPDATES. COLORADO (Zogby): Attorney General Ken
Salazar (D) - 50%, brewery magnate Pete Coors (R) - 44%. FLORIDA
(Zogby): Former US Housing Secretary Mel Martinez (R) and former
Education Commissioner Betty Castor (D) tied at 47% each. LOUISIANA
(Verne Kennedy): Congressman David Vitter (R) -51%, Congressman
Chris John (D) - 17%, State Treasurer John Kennedy (D) - 15%.
OKLAHOMA (Wilson Research): Former Congressman Tom Coburn-41%,
Congressman Brad Carson-38%, Sheila Bilyeu (Indep) - 6%. Has anyone
noticed that the number of undecideds continue to grow
in this race?
Ginny
Schrader (D) entered a bizarre performance. In her opening statement
of the televised event. She began by blasting her opponent for
a nasty NRCC attack spot that had recently aired. The debate moderator
tried repeatedly to interrupt and stop Schrader as she blasted
the attack spot and demanded that her GOP opponent apologize for
the spot. When the moderator cut off Schrader's microphone and
her opponent remained silent, Schrader simply stalked off the
set before the questioning could get started. If you thought that
was bad, in Indiana's CD-3, insurance agent Maria Parra (D) was
even worse. Last week, Parra froze on the TV set while filming
the opening remarks of the only televised debate of the campaign.
Parra broke into tears and ran off. Congressman Mark Souder (R)
said he was willing to start again for Parra, who returned but
demanded that everyone leave the set (except the candidate and
essential TV station staff) as she was suffering from stage fright.
On "take two" on the nearly deserted set, Parra made
it through her opening before she got to the first question. Rather
than give her views about the Iraq War, Parra ripped off her microphone,
hurled an insult at Souder for being a "bad" legislator,
and again ran off the set in tears. Parra's stage fright this
time was so bad that she could not return. The station has decided
not to run the "debate" on the air. Just pathetic.
NEW
YORK - US SENATE: Incumbent Chuck Schumer (D) will win
re-election by a landslide margin. US HOUSE: In CD-27, voters
have a choice between Erie County Comptroller Nancy Naples (R)
and State Assemblyman Brian Higgins (D). Naples is a GOP "centrist"
and Higgins is a "conservative" Dem -- meaning both
share similar views. While this district is currently held by
a moderate GOP incumbent, the district is very pro-Dem in most
contests. Look for Higgins to win a close race and score a Dem
pickup. In CD-29, State Senator Randy Kuhl (R) has taken some
hits in recent days from the unlawful release of sealed divorce
papers which alleged that Kuhl had drunkenly threatened his then-wife
with shotguns. Still, Kuhl has artfully spun the story into one
that questions the integrity of opponent Samara Barend (D) --
a former Hillary Clinton campaign aide -- for having her campaign
illegally obtain the files. Kuhl will win by a decent margin.
All the other incumbents will win re-election, even though a few
are facing marginally competitive races.
OREGON
- US SENATE: Incumbent Ron Wyden (D) will roll to another landslide
victory. US HOUSE: In CD-1, Congressman David Wu (D) was already
locked in a tight contest with wealthy businesswoman Goli Ameri
(R) even before nearly 30-year-old allegations of sexual assault
recently surfaced involved Wu. Ameri is raising the issue in her
TV spots, and the race is hot -- but Wu will still win another
term. Congresswoman Darlene Hooley (D) is also facing a rather
well-funded challenge in CD-5 from former Lake Oswego School Board
Chair Jim Zupanic (R). Still, Hooley will win
by a decent margin.
PENNSYLVANIA
- US SENATE: Incumbent Arlen Specter (R) -- who barely survived
his primary against a conservative rival -- will win a very respectable
victory over Congressman Jim Hoeffel (D). The presence on the
ballot of conservative activist Jim Clymer (Constitution) will
make the race a few points closer than it would otherwise be,
but Specter will be back for six more years. US HOUSE: In CD-8,
Bucks County Commissioner Mike Fitzpatrick (R) is probably too
conservative for most in this district, but he'll still be able
to keep this seat in GOP hands. However, he should expect a real
primary challenge from a GOP moderate in two years. In CD-13,
the third time won't be the charm for surgeon and frequent candidate
Melissa Brown (R). State Senator Allyson Schwartz (D) will win
this open seat. State Senator Charlie Dent (R) will win the open
CD-15 seat. In CD-17, Congressman Tim Holden (D) will survive
yet again in this GOP-leaning district.
SOUTH
DAKOTA - US SENATE: Incumbent Tom Daschle (D) is a top
target of the NRSC, but he isn't going anywhere. He's locked in
a close contest with former Congressman John Thune (R). The race
is so tight that most poll numbers have reflected a virtual tie
for months now. In the end, Daschle will win by a rather slim
margin. US HOUSE: Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth (D) -- who was
just elected in a June special election -- will win a full term
by re-defeating former State Senator Larry Diedrich (R). This
time, Herseth is backed by the NRA and will win by a much better
margin than her slim initial victory four months ago.
DeLay's
plan. In large part, DeLay will achieve his goal. In CD-1, look
for low-key former District Judge Louie Gohmert (R) to defeat
Congressman Max Sandlin (D) in a close vote. In CD-2, Congressman
Nick Lampson (D) will likely lose his seat by a slightly wider
margin to former District Judge Ted Poe (R). In CD-17, Congressman
Chet Edwards (D) will survive DeLay's redrawing plan and defeat
State Rep. Arlene Wohlgemuth (R). In CD-19, freshman Congressman
Randy Neugebauer (R) will defeat 13-term Congressman Charlie Stenholm
(D) by a wide margin. In CD-25, Congressman Lloyd Doggett (D)
will defeat State Public Utility Commission Chair Becky Armendariz
Klein (R) by a decent margin. In CD-32, Congressman Pete Sessions
(R) will defeat Congressman Martin Frost (D) -- the top target
of DeLay's plan -- by a few points. Other "sure bet"
new members of Congress will be Justice of the Peace Al Green
(D) in CD-9, attorney Mike McCaul (R) in CD-10, accountant Mike
Conaway (R) in CD-12, State Rep. Kenny Marchant (R) in CD-24,
and former Secretary of State Henry Cuellar (D) in CD-28. The
end result for DeLay's plan: a GOP pickup of five seats (six,
if you consider that it forced Congressman Ralph Hall in CD-4
to switch parties just before the close of filing earlier this
year).
UTAH
- GOVERNOR: Former law school dean Scott Matheson Jr. (D) is a
quality candidate with a great family name, but it won't be nearly
enough for him to defeat former Ambassador Jon Hunstman Jr. (R).
Huntsman will win by a comfortable margin, likely in the 10-20
point range. US SENATE: Incumbent Bob Bennett (R) will win again
by a landslide margin. US HOUSE: The NRCC keeps targeting CD-2
Congressman Jim Matheson (D) -- Scott's brother -- for defeat.
The GOP are stuck, however, with a highly flawed candidate who
won a divisive, close primary and made no attempt to heal the
bitter wounds. Look for Matheson to win big.
WASHINGTON
- GOVERNOR: State Senator Dino Rossi (R) is the strongest GOP
candidate to run for Governor here in nearly a quarter century.
Attorney General Christine Gregoire (D) is a flawed, but still
fairly strong, contender. In the end, Gregoire will keep the office
in the Dem column by a 6-10 point margin. US SENATE: Incumbent
Patty Murray (D) got a lucky break when retiring Congresswoman
Jennifer Dunn (R) passed on the contest. Instead, Congressman
George Nethercutt became the GOP candidate. Despite Murray's potential
vulnerabilities, Nethercutt was never able to narrow the gap.
Murray will win big. US HOUSE: In the open CD-5 race, State Rep.
Cathy McMorris (R) will win by a comfortable margin and keep this
seat in the GOP column. Dems, however, will score a pickup in
the open CD-8 race. Radio talk show host Dave Ross (D) and King
County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) -- two populists who were both
Independents until less than a year ago -- are locked in a highly
competitive race. In the end, Ross will win by a few points. 
WISCONSIN
- US SENATE: Republicans had dreams of knocking off liberal Incumbent
Russ Feingold (D), but it isn't going to happen. Construction
executive and former Army Ranger Tim Michels (R) is an attractive
candidate, but Feingold will win by a comfortable margin. US HOUSE:
State Senator Gwen Moore (D) will easily win the open CD-4 seat.
The state has a few other marginally competitive races, but don't
look for any upsets.
ALASKA
- US SENATE: Former Governor Tony Knowles (D) has led in the polls
from the start over US Senator Lisa Murkowski (R). The incumbent
has had to deal with baggage from the nepotism that caused her
to be appointed by her father, to problems her centrist views
caused with the conservatives within her own party. Knowles must
overcome a massive Bush landslide in the state, and he will (but
not by much).
CONNECTICUT
- US SENATE: Former clothing industry executive Jack Orchulli
(R) should stick to fashion trends, because he isn't going to
beat US Senator Chris Dodd (D). He won't even come close. US HOUSE:
Look for an upset in CD-2, as former Norwich City Councilman Jim
Sullivan is carried to a narrow victory over Congressman Rob Simmons
(R), based on the strength of the big Kerry margin of victory
here. Sullivan is a GOP centrist and fairly popular with his constituents,
but Sullivan has driven home the message that a vote for the likable
and moderate Simmons is a vote for Tom DeLay to stay in control
of the House. Dems would also like an upset in CD-4 -- for the
same reasons -- but Congressman Chris Shays (R) should win a surprisingly
close contest over Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell (D). Congresswoman
Nancy Johnson (R) -- the third RINO in the Connecticut delegation
-- should win an easy re-election race.
- US SENATE: This is the hardest open Senate race in the nation
to predict. Frankly, former US Housing Secretary Mel Martinez
(R) and former State Education Commissioner Betty Castor (D) both
have an equally good chance of winning. Martinez won a very divisive
primary, and some of those wounds haven't healed yet. His primary
campaign conduct also hurt his credibility with the media, who
formerly praised him. Without all of this, I think Martinez would
have otherwise won the seat. I'm calling this race for Castor,
but it will be very, very close. US HOUSE: Congressman Allen Boyd
(D) is conservative enough that he'll survive the energetic challenge
in CD 2 from State Rep. Bev Kilmer (R) -- and by a better margin
that originally anticipated. Dems would like to see Congresswoman
Katherine Harris (R) as vulnerable in CD-13, but she'll easily
win a second term. Former State Rep. Connie Mack IV (R) in CD-14
and State Senator Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) in CD-20 will both
win open seats by landslide margins. Look for DWS to become one
of the new rising Dem stars in DC.
GEORGIA
- US SENATE: The Republicans will score a pickup in this open
seat race. Congressman Johnny Isakson (R) will easily defeat Congresswoman
Denise Majette (D). All I can guess is that Majette ran this unwinnable
race simply to build her name recognition for a statewide run
for some office like Lieutenant Governor or Secretary of State
in 2006. US HOUSE: Controversial former Congresswoman Cynthia
McKinney (D) is a safe bet to win the open CD-4 seat, as is former
State Senate Majority Leader Tom Price (R) in the CD-6 seat, and
State House Minority Leader Lynn Westmoreland (R) in the open
CD-8. Dems hoped to oust freshman Congressman Phil Gingrey (R)
in CD-11 and Max Burns (R) in CD-12, but both should survive --
Gingrey by a wide margin, Burns by a small amount.
INDIANA
- GOVENOR: Former US Budget Director Mitch Daniels (R) -- President
Bush's "My Man Mitch" -- will defeat Governor Joe Kernan
(D) by a margin of several points. Kernan only succeeded to the
governorship last year when incumbent Frank O'Bannon (D) unexpectedly
died from a massive stroke. Not that Kernan has done a bad job,
but Daniels has run a good campaign. GOP pickup. US SENATE: Incumbent
Evan Bayh (D) will easily win another term. US HOUSE: Moderately
competitive contests in CD-2, CD-8 and CD-9, but all the incumbents
will survive.
KENTUCKY
- US SENATE: Incumbent Jim Bunning (R) would be well on his way
to a landslide win, had his behavior not taken a turn to the belligerent
and bizarre in recent weeks. The state's leading newspapers have
since questioned Bunning's mental ability to serve, and the two
big papers both endorsed State Senator Dan Mongiardo (D). Despite
Bunning's self-inflicted wounds, he'll survive -- likely with
a win in 5-9 point range. US HOUSE: Congresswoman Anne Northup
(R) again faced a competitive challenge this year, but she should
win by a better margin than her usual lackluster showings. In
CD-4, celebrity parent and retired TV news anchorman Nick Clooney
(D) will help the Dems hold onto this open seat. Manufacturing
consultant Geoff Davis (R) should have won this race on his second
try, but he has run an uninspiring campaign.
GOP
chances look good for a pickup here, but this race will not be
decided on November 2. Look for Congressman David Vitter (R) to
place first in the open, multi-party primary by a wide margin
over his nearest rival. However, he will fall short of the majority
mark needed to avoid a December 4 run-off. Congressman Chris John
(D) will advance to the run-off by narrowly edging out State Treasurer
John Kennedy (D) for second place. US HOUSE: Former State Health
Secretary Bobby Jindal (R) -- the GOP nominee for Governor last
year -- will win the open CD-1 seat without need of a run-off.
In the open CD-3, telecommunications lobbyist Billy Tauzin III
(R) -- the son of the retiring incumbent -- will place first in
the six-way primary. State Senator Craig Romero (R) is likely
to qualify for the other run-off berth, with sugar industry lobbyist
Charlie Melancon (D) narrowly edged out. Party switching Congressman
Rodney Alexander (R) will score an outright win on November 2
in CD-5, but he won't finish far about the 50% mark against his
two weak opponents. In the open CD-7, State Senator Willie Mount
(D) and surgeon Charles Boustany Jr. (R) are the two candidates
most likely to advance to the December run-off.
MISSOURI
- GOVERNOR: State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) scored an upset
victory in the primary over embattled Governor Bob Holden, but
her luck will run out on November 2nd. She's going to be hurt
by a likely Bush win in the state. Secretary of State Matt Blunt
(R) will win by at least a few points. GOP pickup. US SENATE:
US Senator Kit Bond (R) should easily dispatch the challenge from
State Treasurer Nancy Farmer (D) by a very healthy margin. Dems
thought she had promise, but Farmer never really cut into Bond's
wide early lead. US HOUSE: State Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) will easily
win the open CD-3 seat, and former Kansas City Mayor Emanuel Cleaver
(D) will do likewise with the open CD-5 seat. Dems seem to think
they can beat Congressman Sam Graves (R) in CD-6 -- or at least
come close -- but I don't see that happening.
HOUSE
RACE UPDATES. NEVADA CD-3 (Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon):
Congressman Jon Porter (R) - 50%, gaming executive Tom Gallagher
(D) - 35%. Gallagher is very wealthy and has also raised a good
amount of money, but Porter keeps solidifying his lead. Dem chances
for a gain here are dwindling. GOP Favored. SOMETHING IN -- OR
ON -- THE AIR. The NRCC launched an attack spot against the Dem
opponent of Congressman Sam Graves (R) in Missouri CD-6. Congressman
John Sullivan (R) in Oklahoma CD-1 and Congressman Mark Kennedy
(R) in Minnesota CD-6 also both went on the air this week with
attack spots against their respective opponents. We didn't think
any of these three were particularly competitive contests but
-- with this taking place -- perhaps their internal polls are
showing them something that we don't know. Otherwise, why spend
big bucks to run TV attacks that name and blast challengers who
are perceived as lagging rather far behind? Interesting.
ARKANSAS
(KTHV-TV/SurveyUSA): Bush-51%, Kerry-46%. COLORADO (Rocky
Mountain News/POS): Bush-47%, Kerry-42%, Nader-3%. FLORIDA
(WFOR-TV/SurveyUSA): Kerry-50%, Bush-49%. NORTH CAROLINA (WBTV-TV/SurveyUSA):
Bush-50%, Kerry-47%. OREGON (Riley Research): Bush-48%, Kerry-43%.
PENNSYLVANIA (KDKA-TV/SurveyUSA): Kerry-51%, Bush-45%. WISCONSIN
(Rasmussen): Kerry-48%, Bush-47%, Badnarik-1%, Nader-1%. In related
Nader news ... Native-American activist and author Winona LaDuke
-- who was Ralph Nader's VP runningmate in 1996 and 2000 on the
Green Party ticket -- broke with her former partner and endorsed
Kerry for President on Monday. In Virginia, Nader's state campaign
coordinator surrendered himself to law enforcement authorities.
He was indicted on 10 counts of election fraud for allegedly filing
fraudulent petitions. And, speaking of election fraud, an Ohio
man who was purportedly collecting voter registration forms for
the NAACP National Voter Fund was arraigned Monday on felony election
fraud charges. The man -- who CNN reports had seemingly been under
the impression that he was going to be a paid a combination of
cash of crack cocaine -- filed forms in the names of Mary Poppins,
Michael Jackson, and nearly a hundred other fake names. 
Sure,
candidates in other states have tried to out-do Keyes in recent
weeks, but Keyes bounced back in fine form this weekend. According
to the Chicago Sun-Times, Keyes proclaimed at a rally
on Saturday that children raised by gay couples are certain to
become victims of incest. "If we do not know who the mother
is, who the father is, without knowing all the brothers and sisters,
incest becomes inevitable. Whether they mean it or not, that is
what will happen," explained Keyes. WISCONSIN (Rasmussen):
US Senator Russ Feingold (D) - 53%, construction executive Tim
Michels (R) - 43%, technology consultant Arif Kahn (Libt) - 2%.
Democrat Favored. NEW HAMPSHIRE (Concord Monitor/Research
2000): US Senator Judd Gregg (D) - 67%, retiree Doris "Granny
D" Haddock (D) - 17%. Safe GOP. SOUTH CAROLINA: File this
away in the "You call this 'helping'?" category.
Richard Perry, Chief of Staff to US Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC),
has taken a leave from his job on Capitol Hill to join Congressman
Jim DeMint's Senate campaign. Perry told the Columbia State
that DeMint needs him "since all that screw-up with the homosexuals
and that stupid comment" about wanting to fire unwed, pregnant
school teachers. To compound this public relations fiasco, DeMint's
campaign manager actually told the newspaper that Perry's job
"will be to accompany DeMint ... and keep him from saying
such things." 
READING
THE TEA LEAVES? Election predictions: Haven't decided if I
should write 'em up or not this year. In 1998 and 2000, I did
so (and with one of the highest rates of accuracy -- near 90%
if you counted only the competitive House and Senate races, but
around 97% if you counted all federal races -- of any of the political
forecasters). In fact, in 2000, the only Senate race I called
wrong (Robb vs. Allen) was the one I amusingly predicted in writing
that I was likely calling it wrong -- but was rolling the dice
on a long-shot hunch. So, should I make predictions on the Governor,
US Senate, and competitive US House races ... or not? Give me
your thoughts.
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