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BLOG ARCHIVE: SEPTEMBER 1-15, 2008.

MONDAY NEWS UPDATE.

OBAMA'S RECORD HAUL; PREZ POLLS; DEMS PICK STJ REPLACEMENT.

P2008. Barack Obama set an all-time record in August for fundraising in a single month: $66 million. By contrast, John McCain raised $50 million in August.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
DELAWARE (Rasmussen): Obama - 55%, McCain - 43%.
MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Obama - 49%, McCain - 47%, Others - 2%.
IOWA (Des Moines Register): Obama - 52%, McCain - 40%, Barr - 2%, Nader - 1%.
MINNESOTA (Minneapolis Star-Tribune/Princeton Survey): Obama - 45%, McCain - 45%.
MISSOURI (Rasmussen): McCain - 51%, Obama - 46%.
NEVADA (Rasmussen): McCain - 49%, Obama - 46%.
NEW JERSEY (Marist College): Obama - 47%, McCain - 40%, Others - 1%.
SOUTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen): McCain - 54%, Obama - 37%.
UTAH (Deseret News/Dan Jones): McCain - 62%, Obama - 24%, Others - 3%.

OHIO. District Democratic leaders selected Warrensville Heights Mayor Marcia Fudge as the replacement nominee in the CD-11 race. Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D) died unexpectedly on August 20. The Cleveland-based seat is solidly Democratic, so Fudge is assured of victory in November. There will also be a largely irrelevent special election in late November to fill the seat until January 2009. As the election will not take place until after Congress is expected to adjourn for the year, the winner may never get the opportunity to cast a single House vote. Fudge, however, is the new nominee for the full two-year term on the November ballot.

US SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups:
MAINE (Research 2000): US Senator Susan Collins (R) - 57%, Congressman Tom Allen (D) - 38%.

MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Humorist Al Franken (D) - 41%, US Senator Norm Coleman (R) - 40%, former US Senator Dean Barkley (IP) - 14%.
NEW JERSEY (Marist College): US Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) - 47%, former Congressman Dick Zimmer (R) - 36%, Others - 1%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Research 2000): US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 48%, State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 42%.

GOVERNOR. The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
UTAH (Deseret News/Dan Jones): Governor John Huntsman (R) - 77%, businessman Bob Springmeyer (D) - 13%.

CONGRESS. Here are the latest independent polls for US House races.
INDIANA CD-9 (SurveyUSA): Congressman Baron Hill (D) - 50%, former Congressman Mike Sodrel (R) - 39%, professor Eric Schansberg (Libt) - 5%.
UTAH CD-1 (Deseret News/Dan Jones): Congressman Rob Bishop (R) - 62%, seminary teacher Morgan Bowen (D) - 21%.
UTAH CD-2 (Deseret News/Dan Jones): Congressman Jim Matheson (D) - 62%, businessman Bill Dew (R) - 27%.
UTAH CD-3 (Deseret News/Dan Jones): Ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Jason Chaffetz (R) - 60%, journalist Bennion Spencer (D) - 18%.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.15.08 | Permalink |

FRIDAY NEWS UPDATE.

WOW ... NINETEEN NEW POLLS TO REPORT.

P2008. Barack Obama and John McCain made nice on Thursday, in honor of the non-partisan tone of the 9/11 observances. Thus, not much to report in P2008 developments (besides the Obama/Bill Clinton photo op and private lunch in NYC).

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
ALABAMA (AEA/Capital Survey): McCain - 55%, Obama - 35%.
COLORADO (PPP-D): Obama - 47%, McCain - 46%.
COLORADO (Insider Advantage): Obama - 49%, McCain - 46%, Other - 1%.
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac Univ.): McCain - 50%, Obama - 43%, Others - 1%.
FLORIDA (Insider Advantage): McCain - 50%, Obama - 42%, Other - 4%.
GEORGIA (Strategic Vision-R): McCain - 52%, Obama - 39%.
GEORGIA (Insider Advantage): McCain - 56%, Obama - 38%, Other - 2%.
IDAHO (Rasmussen): McCain - 68%, Obama - 29%.
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Obama - 51%, McCain - 46%.
MICHIGAN (Insider Advantage): McCain - 45%, Obama - 44%, Other - 3%.
NEVADA (Insider Advantage): McCain - 46%, Obama - 45%, Other - 1%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas-R): McCain - 47%, Obama - 44%, Barr - 3%.
OHIO (Quinnipiac Univ.): Obama - 49%, McCain - 44%, Others - 1%.
OHIO (Strategic Vision-R): McCain - 48%, Obama - 44%.
OHIO (Insider Advantage): McCain - 48%, Obama - 47%, Other - 2%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac Univ.): Obama - 48%, McCain - 45%, Others - 1%.
WYOMING (Rasmussen): McCain - 58%, Obama - 39%.

US SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups:
IDAHO (Rasmussen): Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) - 58%, former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D) - 30%.

CONGRESS. Here are the latest independent polls for US House races.
WASHINGTON CD-8 (SurveyUSA): Congressman Dave Reichert (R) - 54%, former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D) - 44%.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.12.08 | Permalink |

THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE.

SEPTEMBER 11 REMEMBRANCE; AND MORE SWING STATE POLLS THAN EVER BEFORE.

P2008. Barack Obama and John McCain are setting partisan politics aside on Thursday, in remembrance of the anniversary of the September 11 attacks. Both men will appear together at a Ground Zero memorial service and issue a joint statement. The point of the joint events is to emphasize that what unites us as Americans is always much more than what divides us over partisan political squabbles.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
ALASKA (Rasmussen): McCain - 64%, Obama - 33%.
MICHIGAN (CNN/Time): Obama - 45%, McCain - 42%, Nader - 6%, Barr - 2%, McKinney - 1%.
MICHIGAN (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%, Others - 2%.
MISSOURI (CNN/Time): McCain - 48%, Obama - 44%, Nader - 3%, Barr - 2%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (CNN/Time): Obama - 48%, McCain - 43%, Nader - 4%, Barr - 2%.
NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%.
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): McCain - 48%, Obama - 44%, Barr - 4%.
NORTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen): McCain - 55%, Obama - 41%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%, Others - 3%.
VIRGINIA (CNN/Time): McCain - 49%, Obama - 43%, Nader - 3%, Barr - 1%.
WEST VIRGINIA (WSAV-TV/MBE): McCain - 44%, Obama - 39%.
WISCONSIN (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 46%, McCain - 43%, Others - 3%.

US SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups:
ALASKA (Rasmussen): Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) - 48%, US Senator Ted Stevens (R) - 46%.
NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): Congressman Tom Udall (D) - 51%, Congressman Steve Pearce (R) - 44%.
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 43%, US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 42%, postal worker Chris Cole (Libt) - 6%.

GOVERNOR. The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): Lt. Governor Bev Perdue (D) - 41%, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) - 40%, professor Mike Munger (Libt) - 6%.

NORTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen): Governor John Hoeven (R) - 68%, State Senator Tim Mathern (D) - 28%
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Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.11.08 | Permalink |

WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

DE, MN, NH, NY PRIMARY RESULTS; PLUS PREZ, US SEN, GOV AND CONGRESS POLLS.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
MONTANA (Rasmussen): McCain - 53%, Obama - 42%.
NEW JERSEY (Farleigh Dickinson Univ.): Obama - 47%, McCain - 41%, Others - 4%.
OKLAHOMA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 65%, Obama - 32%, Others - 1%.
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 49%, McCain - 45%, Others - 4%.

DELAWARE: Democrats saw an upset in the open gubernatorial race, as favored Lieutenant Governor John Carney narrowly lost to State Treasurer Jack Markell by a 51-49 vote. Retired Judge Bill Lee won the GOP gubernatorial primary with 72%.

MINNESOTA: US Senator Norm Coleman (R), radio talk show host Al Franken (D) and former US Senator Dean Barkley (Independence) each romped to landslide primary victories and will face-off in one of the most competitive US Senate races in the nation. In the US House race, no particularly competitive primary races. In the CD-1 primary , physician Brian Davis defeated State Senator Dick Day by a 2-to-1 margin. Freshman Congressman Tim Walz (D) is favored over Davis in November.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: In CD-1, former Congressman Jeb Bradley defeated former State Health Secretary John Stephen in a highly competitive race. Bradley will next face a rematch against vulnerable freshman Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter (D). In CD-2, radio talk show host Jennifer Horn captured 41% of the vote and won the four-way GOP primary. Horn is an underdog against freshman Congressman Paul Hodes (D) in November.

NEW YORK: As expected in the open CD-13 contest, NYC Councilor Mike McMahon (D) and former State Assemblyman Bob Straniere (R) easily won their respective primaries. In CD-21, State Energy Authority President and former State Assemblyman Paul Tonko defeated four other Dems, making him a safe bet to replace retiring Congressman Mike McNulty (D). There was a major upset in the open CD-26 Dem primary -- which most believed to be a fight between Iraq War veteran Jon Powers and wealthy businessman Jack Davis. Although the DCCC backed Powers, retired attorney and environmentalist Alice Kryzan defeated both men. She won 41%, versus 36% for Powers and 23% for Davis. Kryzan will next face businessman Chris Lee (R) for the seat being vacated by retiring Congressman Tom Reynolds (R)

US SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups:
MONTANA (Rasmussen): US Senator Max Baucus (D) - 64%, attorney Bob Kelleher (R) - 31%.

NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 48%, State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 40%, postal worker Chris Cole (Libt) - 7%.

OKLAHOMA (SurveyUSA): US Senator Jim Inhofe (R) - 56%, State Senator Andrew Rice (D) - 34%, businessman Stephen Wallace (I) - 6%.

GOVERNOR. The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) - 49%, Lt. Governor Bev Perdue (D) - 41%, professor Mike Munger (Libt) - 5%.

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Former State Senator Dino Rossi (R) - 48%, Governor Christine Gregoire (D) - 47%.

CONGRESS. Here are the latest independent polls for US House races.
KENTUCKY CD-3 (SurveyUSA): Congressman John Yarmuth (D) - 53%, former Congresswoman Anne Northup (R) - 45%
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Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.10.08 | Permalink |

TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

LOTSA PREZ POLLS; PLUS DE, DC, MN, NH, NY, RI, VT & WI PRIMARY PREVIEWS.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
COLORADO (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 49%, McCain - 46%, Barr - 2%, Nader - 0%, McKinney - 0%.
FLORIDA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 48%, McCain - 48%, Nader - 2%, Barr - 0%, McKinney - 0%.
MICHIGAN (PPP-D): Obama - 47%, McCain - 46%.
OHIO (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 51%, Obama - 44%, Nader - 1%, Barr - 0%, McKinney - 0%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%, Barr - 1%, Nader - 1%.
VIRGINIA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%, Others - 2%.
VIRGINIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%, Barr - 1%, Nader - 1%, McKinney - 0%.
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 49%, McCain - 45%, Others - 4%.

US SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups:
MICHIGAN (PPP-D): US Senator Carl Levin (D) - 51%, State Representative Jack Hoogendyk (R) - 36%.
VIRGINIA (SurveyUSA): Former Governor Mark Warner (D) - 56%, former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) - 35%, businesswoman Gail Parker (Ind Green) - 4%, Libertarian National Chairman Bill Redpath (Libt) - 3%.

PRIMARY PREVIEWS. Seven states and the District of Columbia hold primaries on Tuesday. Here are the key races to watch.
DELAWARE: In the open gubernatorial race, Lieutenant Governor John Carney is heavily favored to defeat State Treasurer Jack Markell in the Democratic primary. Polls have shown Carney holding a lopsided advantage. On the GOP side, retired Judge Bill Lee is expected to easily win his gubernatorial primary on his third run for the office. Governor Ruth Ann Minner (D) is term limited. Three Dems are also fighting for the right to face Congressman Mike Castle (R) in November -- but it doesn't matter much. Castle is safe in November.
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: No competitive primary races of note.
MINNESOTA: Humorist and radio talk show host Al Franken is expected to comfortably win the eight-way Democratic primary for US Senator. Seven candidates are also seeking the Independence Party nomination, with former US Senator Dean Barkley viewed as the frontrunner. Franken and the IP nominee will face vulnerable freshman US Senator Norm Coleman (R) in November. In the US House race, no particularly competitive primary races.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: The GOP primaries for Congress are both worth watching. In CD-1, former Congressman Jeb Bradley is favored over former State Health Secretary John Stephen and two others. The Republican winner will face vulnerable freshman Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter (D). In CD-2, four Republicans are facing off. The GOP winner will be an underdog against freshman Congressman Paul Hodes (D).
NEW YORK: The open CD-13 contest isn't very competitive on Tuesday, as NYC Councilor Mike McMahon (D) and former State Assemblyman Bob Straniere (R) are expected to win their respective primaries. McMahon is strongly favored over Straniere in November. In CD-21, Albany County Legislator Paul Steck (D) is heavy favored to defeat four other Dems and replace retiring Congressman Mike McNulty (D). Also watch the open CD-26 Dem primary between Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, wealthy businessman Jack Davis and a third hopeful. Davis has lost two runs for the seat, and the Dem establishment is backing Powers. The winner will face businessman Chris Lee (R) for the seat being vacated by retiring Congressman Tom Reynolds (R).
RHODE ISLAND: No primary races worth watching here.
VERMONT: No exciting primary contests here, either.
WISCONSIN: Ditto, nothing of note here either on Tuesday.

Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.09.08 | Permalink |

MONDAY NEWS UPDATE.

3 OUT OF 4 APPEAR ON SUNDAY NEWS SHOWS.

P2008. Barack Obama, Joe Biden and John McCain all appeared on the Sunday morning news shows. The only absentee: Sarah Palin, who is not yet giving any interviews. Palin plans her first media interview in "a few days" with ABC News' Charlie Gibson. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis told Fox News on Sunday that Palin would only submit to media questions if Palin will be treated "with respect and deference."

NEW POLLS. Nada. No new independent state polls released over the weekend for President, or any of the US Senate or Governor races.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.08.08 | Permalink |

SATURDAY NEWS UPDATE.

RON PAUL ON PREZ BALLOT; YOUNG WINS ALASKA PRIMARY; NRSC PULLS OUT OF NEW MEXICO.

P2008. GOP Congressman Ron Paul will see his name appear on Presidential primary ballots in November in two states: Montana and Louisiana. The Constitution Party of Montana, which is feuding with the national Constitution Party over the issue of abortion, has placed Paul on the Montana ballot as the party's nominee instead of official CP nominee Chuck Baldwin. In Louisiana, a group of Paul supporters have succeeded in placing him on the ballot there under the label of the fictional Taxpayers Party. Montana is a hotly contested swing state this year, while Louisiana is fairly solid McCain state. Paul refused to make a deal with the RNC to grant him a prominent speaking slot at this week's national convention in exchange for Paul endorsing McCain. Instead, Paul held a rival convention across town from the GOP convention.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
ALASKA (KTUU-TV/Ivan Moore Research): McCain - 54%, Obama - 35%.

NEW MEXICO. According to the AP, the NRSC canceled the entire ad buy it reserved in the state on behalf of Congressman Steve Pearce (R). The move certainly seems to imply the GOP is writing-off the open US Senate seat to Congressman Tom Udall (D).

US SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups:
ALASKA (KTUU-TV/Ivan Moore Research): Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) - 49%, US Senator Ted Stevens (R) - 46%, teacher Bob Bird (AK IND) - 2%. Note: In related news, the Alaska Libertarian Party is thinking of replacing little-known nominee David Haase with former State Representative Dave Cuddy. Cuddy, who finished second place behind Stevens in the GOP primary, said he thinks the swap is "unlikely." Haase is accusing state party leaders of "trying to rig" the election for Begich.

ALASKA. Congressman Don Young (R) -- the target of a federal corruption probe -- held on to narrowly win renomination over Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell. State election officials completed the ballot counting late Friday night of all the roughly 25,000 absentee and provisional ballots. Young initially led by 151 votes with all precincts counted on primary night last week, but ballots postmarked by election day and received by Friday were counted under state law. The absentee and provisional ballots slightly widened Young's lead to 239 votes. The final numbers: Young - 48,006, Parnell - 47,767. Military ballots from overseas can still be counted if they are received by September 10, but it is not believed there are enough remaining unreturned military ballots for Parnell to overcome Young's slim advantage. Young's victory is very good news for the Democrats, as we are now changing the race rating to Leans DEM. See the latest polls:
ALASKA (KTUU-TV/Ivan Moore Research): Former State Representative Ethan Berkowitz (D) - 54%, Congressman Don Young (R) - 37%, retired pilot Don Wright (AK IND) - 3%.
ALASKA (KTUU-TV/Ivan Moore Research): Lt. Governor Sean Parnell (R) - 49%, Former State Representative Ethan Berkowitz (D) - 38%, retired pilot Don Wright (AK IND) - 4%.

ALABAMA. A follow-up to the SurveyUSA poll the other day showing Jay Love (R) leading Bobby Bright (D) for the open CD-2 seat by a lopsided 56-39 vote. It seems both the poll sponsor Roll Call and the pollster agree the results were improperly skewed by an error with significantly undercounting of the African-American percentage of the district's voters. Here is the explanation Roll Call published: "Roll Call asked SurveyUSA pollster Jay Leve to 're-weight' the results based on greater black turnout. According to [pollster Jay] Leve, Love's lead shrinks to 50-44 if black turnout equals 2004 levels. It shrinks even more to 49-46 -- within the 4 percent margin of error -- if black turnout increases to 27 percent."
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.06.08 | Permalink |

FRIDAY NEWS UPDATE.

McCAIN'S BIG NIGHT;GOP CONGRESSMAN CALLS OBAMA "UPPITY"; DETROIT MAYOR RESIGNS; LOUISIANA POSTPONES PRIMARY; ROB ANDREWS RETURNS.

REPUBLICAN CONVENTION.
SARAH PALIN - Governor Sarah Palin delivered a very strong call to action to conservatives Wednesday evening, proving she has political skills worthy of the national stage. The speech instantly made her the new darling of the party's social conservative wing, and fired up the GOP base for the McCain/Palin ticket. It remains to be seen if her message will attract voters from outside the party. GOP political consultant and longtime McCain friend Mike Murphy told Time magazine he thinks Palin is a choice that will help doom McCain's chances. Here's what he wrote: "With all her charm, [Palin] is still a pick aimed squarely at the Republican base. In a high turnout Presidential year, I am not worried about turning out the base. Iím worried about everybody else we need to win and I fear that among those voters, Sarah Palin will be a dud ... I think sheíll ultimately be a polarizer. After last nightís smash, Republicans are in deep love. Nothing thrills Ďem like a good 'us vs. them' speech. But Iíd guess that most Democrats had the opposite reaction. In a year where the Democrat generic numbers are 10+ points better than the Republican, I donít like the math of a strategy that just polarized the election along party base lines. Among the vital sliver of voters in the middle, I think Palinís rock solid social conservatism will be a turn off ... Palinís inexperience is a weakness, denying McCain an argument that has been helping him against Obama ... So thatís my concern with Sarah Palin. Interesting person, bad strategic choice to win the election."
CINDY McCAIN - John McCain's wife Cindy spoke to the convention Thursday evening, but her address was delivered in a rather stiff style. Not much worthy of additional commentary.
JOHN McCAIN - McCain gave his big speech Thursday. In an usual scene for a national convention, the McCain's speech was interrupted several times during the opening minutes by the shouting of scattered anti-war activists who were planted in the crowd among the spectators. While the crowd drowned out the peace activists with choruses of "USA, USA", McCain's expression and tone seemed at times annoyed by the heckling. Overall, McCain's delivery was better than usual -- at least by McCain standards. The words, however, were his usual blended message of patriotism and Republican politics unlikely to sway many swing viewers. However, he made a point of distancing himself several times from GOP politics from the past several years. Instead, it mostly seemed focused upon rushing through to the end while at least meeting the low oratorical bar set by his campaign's pre-speech spin.

OBAMA. Congressman Lynn Westmoreland (R-GA) created a stir on Thursday when he repeatedly used a racially tinged word when describing Barack Obama. In an interview with Congressional Quarterly, Westmoreland was asked about the comparative speaking styles of Sarah Palin and Michelle Obama. "Honestly, I’ve never paid that much attention to Michelle Obama. Just what little I’ve seen of her and Senator Obama is that they’re a member of an elitist class ... that thinks that they’re uppity," said the Congressman. "'Uppity', you said," inquired the reporter, giving Westmoreland a chance to un-do the comment. "Yeah, uppity,” confirmed Westmoreland. CQ posted the audio of the interview here.

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
INDIANA (Howey-Gauge): McCain - 45%, Obama - 43%.
NORTH DAKOTA (DFM Research): Obama - 43%, McCain - 40%, Others - 5%.

NEW JERSEY. Congressman Rob Andrews (D) pledged earlier this year -- when he launched his primary bid against US Senator Frank Lautenberg -- that he would not seek re-election under any circumstances if he lost the primary. Of course, nobody believed him when Camille Andrews -- Rob's wife -- ran for his open CD-1 seat. Well, Lautenberg smashed Andrews back in June. On Thursday, Rob Andrews announced he was bowing to the "strong encouragement" from Democrats in his district who wanted him to jump back into the House race. Camille is stepping aside and district party leaders will now substitute Rob Andrews as the Democratic nominee. He is a safe bet to win in November over minister Dale Glading (R) and four others.

LOUISIANA. Due to Hurricane Gustav striking the state earlier this week, Governor Bobby Jindal (R) by executive order postponed this Saturday's scheduled congressional primary elections. Instead, the state is tentatively looking to hold the primary a week later on September 13.

GOVERNOR. The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
INDIANA (Howey-Gauge): Governor Mitch Daniels (R) - 53%, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson (D) - 35%, engineer Andrew Horning (Libertarian) - 3%.
NORTH DAKOTA (DFM Research): Governor John Hoeven (R) - 63%, State Senator Tim Mathern (D) - 19%.

DETROIT. Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D) announced Thursday he will resign from office and plead guilty to two counts of obstruction of justice/perjury. In return, prosecutors dropped six other counts and agreed to a sentence of four months in jail and five years probation. A defiant Kilpatrick said Thursday evening the city was in better shape than it was seven years ago when took office. He even vowed a political return: "Sometimes standing strong means stepping down. But Detroit you have set me up for a comeback."

CONGRESS. Here are the latest independent polls for US House races.
MISSOURI CD-9 (SurveyUSA): Former State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) - 50%, State Representative Judy Baker (D) - 38%, Tamara Millay (Libertarian) - 10%.

Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.05.08 | Permalink |

THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE.

PALIN'S NATIONAL DEBUT; PREZ POLLS; AZ PRIMARY RESULTS; AL, NM HOUSE POLLS.

REPUBLICAN CONVENTION. Wednesday night saw Governor Sarah Palin's national debut speech. The night also saw John McCain formally become the Presidential nominee, and Rudy Giuliani's keynote address. (And, yes, I wrote this before Palin spoke -- as I want to watch the speech.)

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
IOWA (CNN/Time): Obama - 55%, McCain - 40%.
MINNESOTA (CNN/Time): Obama - 53%, McCain - 41%.
OHIO (CNN/Time): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%.

ARIZONA. Our belated results from Tuesday's primary. CD-1: State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick cruised to an easy win in the Democratic primary. On the GOP side, mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay narrowly defeated three others. Although the seat is currently held by retiring Congressman Rick Renzi (R), Kirkpatrick is now the frontrunner over Hay to score a pickup in November. Race rating: Leans DEM. CD-5: As expected, Maricopa County Treasurer Dave Schweikert won a close victory in the competitive, six-way GOP primary. A social and fiscal conservative, Schweikert will next face freshman Congressman Harry Mitchell (D). Race rating: Toss-Up. Two more Arizona races to watch in November -- but ones without primaries this week -- are CD-3 (GOP Congressman John Shadegg versus Dem attorney Bob Lord - Leans GOP) and CD-8 (freshman Dem Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords versus GOP State Senate President Tim Bee - Leans DEM).

CONGRESS. Here are the latest independent polls for US House races.
ALABAMA CD-2 (SurveyUSA): State Representative Jay Love (R) - 56%, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) - 39%.
NEW MEXICO CD-1 (SurveyUSA): Albuquerque Councilor Martin Heinrich (D) - 51%, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White (R) - 46%
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Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.04.08 | Permalink |

WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

DUBYA, LIEBERMAN SPEAK AT GOP CONVO; US HOUSE UPDATES.

REPUBLICAN CONVENTION. Tuesday's highlights included speeches from President Bush, Joe Lieberman, Tom Ridge, plus Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, and other former White House hopefuls. Lieberman's speech will likely seal his expulsion from the Senate Democratic caucus and the loss of his committee chairmanship at the end of this year. According to various media reports, President Bush offered to speak in person at the convention on Tuesday evening but, at the request of the McCain strategists, was asked instead to speak to the convention via remote telecast from DC. In related P2008 news, the McCain campaign began airing paid TV spots this week in North Carolina and Georgia -- meaning his campaign now believes these states are potentially in play and competitive. Today's official sound bite seems to be: "Is anyone really 'ready' to be President? That's hard to say."

ARIZONA. No primary results to post -- as I don't play to stay up late updating the numbers (due to the time zone difference). But you can follow the live results here.

CONGRESS. Here are two brief reports from the US House races.
MARYLAND CD-1: Congressman Wayne Gilchrest (R) crossed party lines on Tuesday and endorsed Queen Anne County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil (D) as his successor. The centrist Gilchrest lost his GOP primary to conservative State Senator Andy Harris back in February. Gilchrest made it clear he plans to actively campaign for Kratovil, help the Dem raise money, and appear in advertisements. The Gilchrest endorsement causes us to move this race from GOP Favored to Leans GOP.
OREGON CD-1: Businessman Joel Haugen announced Tuesday he was withdrawing as the GOP nominee but would remain in the race against Congressman David Wu (D) as the nominee of the Independent Party. Although a registered Republican, Haugen had been running with dual ballot spots. Haugen came under fire in recent days when he announced his support for Barack Obama. The deadline for GOP to replace a nominee has passed, so they will not be able to field any candidate against Wu on the November ballot.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.03.08 | Permalink |

TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

MORE QUESTIONS ON PALIN; GOP CONVO RETURNS TO NORMAL; ARIZONA PRIMARY PREVIEW.

REPUBLICAN CONVENTION. With Hurricane Gustav significantly less destructive than had been initially feared, the Republican National Convention will return to a normal schedule on Tuesday. Cindy McCain and Laura Bush both made brief stage appearances on Monday, urging peope to donate to disaster relief efforts. Mitt Romney and others are scheduled to speak to the convention on Tuesday. In other related news, VP candidate Sarah Palin on Monday acknowledged she has hired an attorney to defend her in the so-called "Troopergate" scandal in Alaska related to alleged mis-use of her authority. Palin denies any wrongdoing. Also, Palin was forced over the weekend to publicly acknowledge that her unmarried, 17-year-old daughter is pregnant. Palin is an advocate of "abstinence only" sex education programs. Barack Obama refused to comment on the story of Palin's daughter except to say that "people’s families are off-limits and people's children are especially off-limits" and the media should "back off these type of stories." Cindy McCain came to Palin's defense on the experience question during an interview on ABC, explaining that Palin has foreign policy experience because "Alaska is the closest part of our continent to Russia. It’s not as if she doesn’t understand what’s at stake here." Palin never visited Russia and did not have a passport until 2007. New allegations also surfaced that Palin in the early 1990s was a once member of the secessionist Alaskan Independence Party. AK-IP leaders openly boasted last year that Palin was in fact a member before she first ran for city council. Finally, it appears McCain was wrong when he said Palin "championed reform to end the [federal earmark] abuses" like Alaska's so-called "bridge to nowhere." Palin in fact openly supported the federal appropriation for the bridge project during her 2006 run for Governor. According to various media sources, at least ten RNC lawyers are currently in Alaska vetting Palin to ensure there will be no more surprises over the next two months.

ARIZONA. Voters will select nominees on Tuesday in two hot congressional primaries. CD-1: Both parties have hot races in the swing-seat contest to replace Congressman Rick Renzi (R), was successfully pressured by the House GOP Leadership to retire after his indictment on federal corruption charges. On the GOP side, State Mining Association Executive Director Sydney Hay and attorney Sandra Livingstone are the two frontrunners. Both have support from various party leaders, but Hay appears to have the edge in the four-way primary. Hay lost the crowded '02 GOP primary to Renzi when the seat was last open. On the Democratic side, State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick is the heavy favorite to win the primary. She is strongly backed by party leaders and organized labor. Three others are running including progressive attorney Howard Shanker and former local TV news reporter Mary Kim Titla. CD-5: Six Republicans are competing for the right to face freshman Congressman Harry Mitchell (D) in November. Five of the GOP candidates are viable contenders: Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, former congressional aide Jim Ogsbury, State Representatives Mark Anderson and Susan Bitter-Smith, and former State Representative Laura Knaperek. Schweikert is backed by the Club for Growth, Ogsbury is endorsed by the Arizona Republic, and all five have won endorsements from various elected officials. Schweikert and Ogsbury are probably the two frontrunners, but this should be a close primary contest.

CONGRESS. Here are the latest independent polls for US House races.
MINNESOTA CD-3 (SurveyUSA): State Representative Erik Paulsen (R) - 44%, Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia (D) - 41%, Others - 10%.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.02.08 | Permalink |

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