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TRACKING
US
SENATE RACE UPDATE. OHIO: US Senator George
Voinovich (R) looks like a safe bet to win re-election.
A new University of Cincinnati poll shows Voinovich
leading State Senator Eric Fingerhut (D) by
a vote of 64% to 34%. Would colorful TV show
host Jerry Springer have performed any worse
had he entered this race after his flirtation
with it last year? Safe Republican ... and Springer
is now weighing a 2006 run for Ohio Governor. US
HOUSE RACE UPDATES. COLORADO: A surprise
in the open CD-3 race, as the GOP was expected
to be strongly favored to hold this seat. According
to the new REPORT FROM IRAQ: OF TALK RADIO AND BAD CRABS. Time for our latest report from Iraq. Our friend and special correspondent Lt. James Crabtree of the 1/23 Marines gives us his latest update from their location in northwestern Iraq.
If
you'd like to send the 1/23d any care packages
(food items that won't melt, batteries, books,
magazines, baby wipes, etc.), please address
the packages to Lt Crabtree, 1/23 H&S Co,
Unit 41900, FPO, AP 96426-1900 ... and James
will ensure that whatever you ship gets distributed
to the Marines in the 1/23. If you'd like to
read more about our adopted 1/23 Marine battalion
in Iraq, please click here. THURSDAY
OPEN THREAD. Debate expectations? Start
your spinning! (I'm going to be on a plane when
the debate is going on, so I guess I'm going
to have to settle for either highlights or a
later re-broadcast). FYI: In addition to the
official Bush-Kerry debate, FreeMarketNews.com
will webcast a debate from Miami featuring excluded
Presidential candidates David Cobb (Green) and
Michael Badnarik (Libertarian). Ralph Nader
was also invited to participate in this alternate
debate, but he apparently is skipping it in
order to stand outside the real debate in the
hope of attracting media attention. SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office, etc., campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our homepage blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential coattails items always appreciated!) My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301. Today's thanks go out to: George Ajjan, Republican candidate for Congress in New Jersey CD-8; and to PoliticalWebSolutions.com, for sending me a pin from one of their recent Dem congressional clients. TRACKING
NADER
NEWS. Independent Presidential candidate Ralph
Nader was knocked off the ballot in Ohio on Tuesday
for failing to file 5,000 valid voter signatures.
While Nader's campaign turned in over 15,000 signatures,
Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (R) certified
that Nader filed only 3,708 valid ones. In 2000,
Nader captured 2.5% of the vote in Ohio. In Wisconsin,
a Circuit Court overruled the State Elections
Board and removed Nader from the ballot. Nader
immediately filed an emergency appeal to the State
Supreme Court -- who agreed to rule on the matter
by noon on Wednesday.
US
SENATE RACE UPDATE. OKLAHOMA: A new poll is
signaling that the recent bad press stories about
former Congressman Tom Coburn (R) -- caused in
part by Coburn's own comments -- are taking a
toll on his campaign. The latest Daily Oklahoman/Wilson
Research tracking poll shows Congressman Brad
Carson (D) leading Coburn by a 44% to 39% vote,
with Sheila Bilyea (Indep) at 3%. Carson has moved
up 3% and Coburn dropped 1% over the past week.
A
SUGGESTION FOR THE FIRST KERRY-BUSH "DEBATE."
Instead of the 32-page list of rules approved
by the Bush and Kerry campaigns -- restrictions
so stultifying as to render Thursday's so-called
"debate" into nothing more than side-by-side
memorized monologues -- I have an idea to liven
things up. Under the agreement, the two sides
mandate camera angles, the before and after handshakes,
who sits in the audience and where, podium height,
allowable pens and paper for each candidate, bans
props, prohibits the two men from addressing each
other directly, imposes severe restrictions on
the moderators, etc. So ... here's my idea to
fix the problem. Since the debate is to be televised
live -- and live TV is, well, LIVE -- what would
happen if the moderator, with cameras rolling,
says "Gentlemen, these rules are ridiculous.
They don't allow for a meaningful exchange of
ideas, so I'm simply going to set them aside and
tell you how we're really going to do it tonight
so that the American people can benefit from a
real debate ...." And, while we're at it,
I hope the TV networks break the restriction that
prohibits them from unexpectedly filming either
man while others are speaking while all this is
going on. WEDNESDAY
OPEN THREAD. Wait, no political sex stories
today on Politics1 ... no lesbians ... no juicy
scandals? Then what are we supposed to discuss
today?? SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open
offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter):
send me a button or pin from the Governor, US
Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office, etc.,
campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add
a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a link
to official campaign site here on our homepage
blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI:
Presidential coattails items always appreciated!)
My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue,
Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301. Today's thanks go out
to: Peter
Hort, Republican candidate for Congress
in New York CD-8. US
MT
GOVERNOR RACE UPDATE. MONTANA: A new poll shows
the gubernatorial contest in Big Sky country to
be tight. According to the Billings Gazette/Mason-Dixon
poll, wealthy rancher Brian Schweitzer (D) is at
45%, Secretary of State Bob Brown (R) is at 41%,
businessman Stan Jones (Libt) is at 0.5%, and frequent
candidate Bob Kelleher (Green) is at 0.3%. Brown
has narrowed the gap by six points since this same
poll of four months ago. Incumbent Governor Judy
Martz (R) did not seek re-election. Rating: Toss-up.
In related news, the Presidential contest in the
state is a blowout. The same poll showed Bush leading
Kerry by a 54% to 36% vote. US
HOUSE RACE UPDATE. INDIANA: In CD-2, freshman
Congressman Chris Chocola (R) has opened up a wide
lead over attorney Joe Donnelly (D). According to
the South Bend Tribune/Research 2000 poll,
Chocola has 53% and Donnelly has 40%. Chocola said
the numbers prove he is doing a good job in DC.
Donnelly's campaign disagreed, noting that 44% of
voters said they still did not know anything about
Donnelly -- meaning that the Dem still has much
room to move up. Note, however, that the incumbent
is above the 50% mark. Republican favored. VOCAL
ANTI-GAY KEYES IS PARENT OF A "SELFISH HEDONIST."
A month ago, bombastic US Senate nominee Alan
Keyes (R-IL) responded to a question from a radio
talk show host by saying that gays were all living
in sin and "selfish hedonists" -- and
answered that he included the lesbian daughter of
Vice President Dick Cheney in that description.
In fact, Keyes frequently denounces gays on the
campaign trail. However, it turns out that Keyes'
own 19-year-old daughter Maya is an out lesbian.
Now -- before everyone gets worked up about violations
of privacy or that a candidate's family is "off-limits"
-- you should note that Maya Keyes chose to out
herself online. POLITICS
AND SEX - PART 2. Yesterday we reported on the
non-partisan Votergasm group, which is encouraging
voters in 18-25 to vote and then have sex on election
TUESDAY
OPEN THREAD. My electricity -- post-Hurricane
Jeanne damage -- is working again today, so life
is good. So, what do you want to discuss? SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open
offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter):
send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate,
Congressional, Statewide Office, etc., campaign
you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker
and brochure -- and I'll place a link to official
campaign site here on our homepage blog in a daily
"thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential coattails
items always appreciated!) My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301. Today's
thanks go out to: Pete
Ponzetti ,Green for Michigan State
Board of Education. TRACKING
THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. Just two polls out
of New England today. MAINE (Critical Insights):
Kerry-45%, Bush-42%, Others/Undecided-13%. NEW HAMPSHIRE
(Concord Monitor/Research 2000): Kerry-47%,
Bush-46%, Nader-2%. PENNSYLVANIA (Philadelphia
Inquirer/Temple Univ.): Kerry-49%, Bush-47%.
CONGRESSIONAL
MONDAY
OPEN THREAD. Still no post-hurricane electricity
yet (Day #2) ... but I worked from my folks' house
to write these updates. Use today's open thread to
start posturing debate expectations for your respective
candidates ... or chat about anything else that has
you worked up (like the NHL/NHLPA hockey lockout,
that still tops my list). AN ATTACK ... AND OUR LATEST REPORT FROM THE 1/23 MARINES. For those who did not see it, the following newspaper report on a 1/23 Marine was published Wednesday in the Shreveport Times:
I reprinted the above article for you because it relates to the latest report from our friend and special correspondent Lt. James Crabtree of our "adopted" 1/23 Marines in Iraq:
If
you'd like to send the 1/23d any care packages (food
items that won't melt, batteries, books, magazines,
baby wipes, etc.), please address the packages to Lt
Crabtree, 1/23 H&S Co, Unit 41900, FPO, AP 96426-1900
... and James will ensure that whatever you ship
gets distributed to the Marines in the 1/23. If you'd
like to read more about our adopted 1/23 Marine battalion
in Iraq, please click here. SUNDAY
OPEN THREAD. The tropical storm force winds from
Hurricane Jeanne knocked down trees and traffic signals
in South Florida ... and also knocked out my electricity
again. Just like Hurricane Frances three weeks ago.
Last time it was four days without power, so no idea
how long it will be like this. For now, I've temporarily
decamped down to my parents' house (since they have
power). SATURDAY
OPEN THREAD. Hurricane Jeanne is heading for us here
in South Florida so I'm heading out the do the hurricane
shutters yet again!! And, speaking of ridiculous, check
out this
story about the 32-page document containing all the
pedantic rules negotiated by lawyers for the two campaigns
for the first Bush-Kerry debate. SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer
for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a
button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional,
Statewide Office, etc., campaign you are involved in --
feel free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place
a link to official campaign site here on our homepage
blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential
coattails items always appreciated!) My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301. Today's thanks
go out to: E.J.
Pipkin, Republican for US Senate in Maryland. TRACKING
THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. FLORIDA (CNN/USA Today/Gallup):
Bush-49%, Kerry-46%, Nader-2%. FLORIDA (Quinnipiac College):
Bush-49%, Kerry-41%, Nader-5%. A leading national pollster,
who asked not to be named, told Politics1 he was skeptical
of all the recent
FRIDAY
OPEN THREAD. Another hurricane approaches Florida
... belated greetings for a Happy Autumn ... and here's
my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter):
send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate,
Congressional, etc., campaign you are involved in -- feel
free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a
link to the official campaign site here on our homepage
blog in a daily "thank you" note. FYI: Presidential
coattails items always appreciated! My address: Ron Gunzburger,
409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301. Today's thanks
go out to: Mike
Conaway, Republican for Congress in Texas
CD-11. TRACKING
THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. We've got a whole bunch of
new independent polls just out. Bush still appears to holding
onto some of his lead acquired during his convention bounce,
but the Bush lead has narrowed over the past two weeks.
ARIZONA (American Research Group): Bush-49%, Kerry-43%.
ARIZONA (Mason-DIxon):
GOVERNOR
CONTEST NUMBERS. WASHINGTON (KING-TV/SurveyUSA): Attorney
General Chris Gregoire (D) - 47%, State Senator Dino Rossi
(R) - 46%. This race looks to be the most competitive gubernatorial
contest the state has seen in over two decades. Toss-up. CONTROL
OF THE US HOUSE. We're trying to find more independent
polls on the US House races so you can get a better picture
on what is happening there. Republican control of the House
still looks secure for 2004, but that doesn't mean there
won't be a shift of some seats and possibly a few upsets.
KENTUCKY CD-3 (Louisville Courier-Journal): Congresswoman
Anne Northup (R) - 47%, Clerk of Courts Tony Miller (D)
- 40%, George Dick (Libt) - 2%. Leans Northup, but this
is a competitive race. MAINE CD-1 (WCSH-TV/SurveyUSA): Congressman
Tom Allen (D) - 64%, former State Senator Charlie Summers
(R) - 30%. MAINE CD-2 (WCSH-TV/SurveyUSA): Congressman Mike
Michaud (D) - 55%, economic development official Brian Hamel
(R) - 34%. Both House incumbents are pretty safe in Maine.
WASHINGTON CD-5 (KHQ-TV/SurveyUSA): State Rep. Cathy McMorris
(R) - 53%, hotel executive Don Barbieri (D) - 39%. McMorris
is favored to keep this open seat in GOP hands. JEWS
AND MUSLIMS THURSDAY
OPEN THREAD. As you can tell from cruising through the
site, I collect campaign buttons. Here's an open offer for
every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button
or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, etc.,
campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker
and brochure -- and I'll place a link to the official campaign
site here on our homepage blog in a daily "thank you"
note. FYI: Presidential coattails items always appreciated!
My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale,
FL 33301. Today's thanks go out to: Mike
Ferguson, Libertarian for Missouri Lieutenant
Governor; and Melissa
Bean, Democrat for Congress in Illinois CD-8. ANTI-BUSH
DIRTY TRICK IN MINNESOTA? Have the Dems -- or, at least,
some anti-Bush progressives -- cooked up a pretty clever,
dirty trick to play on Religious Right conservatives in Minnesota?
Self-admitted political "flake" and public relations
consultant Tom Harens (right) -- who served one term as a
Democrat in the WILL
THE
"NOVEMBER 2" WEDNESDAY
OPEN THREAD. What's on your mind? TRACKING
THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. In Michigan, the new EPIC/MRA poll
shows the race as Kerry-48%, Bush-44%, Nader-2% A second Michigan
poll out today -- this one the MSNBC/Knight Ridder/Mason-Dixon
poll -- has Kerry leading by a 47% to 41% vote, with Nader at
2%. In Iowa, the MSNBC/Knight Ridder/Mason-Dixon poll showed
Bush ahead by a 48% to 42% vote, with Nader at 2%. UPDATES
ON SOME OTHER RACES. NEVADA: US Senator Harry Reid (D) looks
pretty solid against anti-gay activist Rich Ziser (R). The new
Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll shows Reid
holding a 54% to 34% advantage. HE'S
NEVER HEARD OF YOU, EITHER. Yup, we've brought this reoccurring
feature back to profile yet another of the more eccentric Presidential
candidates you're unlikely to read about anywhere else. Today
we'll introduce you to Jack Grimes of Pennsylvania,
Presidential nominee of the
In the end, that Wisconsin speech had to be cancelled because
the supporters couldn't scrape together enough money for a ticket
to get Grimes to the rally. While Grimes failed to achieve ballot
status in any states in 2000, he falsely boasts on his site
that he was on the ballot in 45 states and placed 6th in the
race. He is again running as a write-in candidate and will probably
announce his fake "third place" finish minutes as
the polls close this year. P.S. SEND MORE CARE PACKAGES. Here's the latest report -- more pix and less words this time -- from our friend and special correspondent Lt. James Crabtree of our "adopted" 1/23 Marines in Iraq:
If
you'd like to send the 1/23d any care packages (food items that
won't melt, batteries, books, magazine, baby wipes, etc.), please
address the packages to Lt Crabtree, 1/23 H&S Co, Unit 41900,
FPO, AP 96426-1900 ... and James will ensure that whatever
you ship gets distributed to the Marines in the 1/23. If you'd
like to read more about our adopted 1/23 Marine battalion in
Iraq, please click here. TUESDAY
OPEN THREAD. "When you trade your values for the hope
of winning, you end up losing and having no values -- so you
keep losing," concludes Howard Dean in his new
book, which comes out later this week. Wise words for any
candidate -- regardless of ideology -- to keep in mind in these
final weeks before the election. NADER
BACK ON FLORIDA NOTHING
EXCITING ... BUT, HEY, IT WAS A PRIMARY. Hawaii voters went
to the polls on Saturday to select nominees for US Senate, Congress
and various other offices. Seven-term US Senator Dan Inouye (D),
80, won his primary in a landslide by capturing 94% against two
minor opponents. He is a safe bet to win another term in November
over former State Rep. Cam Cavasso, the winner of the GOP primary.
In Honolulu, voters narrowed the 10-candidate Mayoral field for
the November run-off. Former City Councilmen Duke Bainum (D) and
Mufi Hannemann (D) qualified for the non-partisan run-off spots.
Bainum spent $2.8 million in the primary and was first with 46%,
versus the $1.2 million spent by Hannemann for his second place
finish at 43%. Former Mayor and perennial candidate Frank Fasi
(R), 84, got the best bang for his buck. He spent just $4,000
and finished third with 10%. Fasi's vote total also blocked either
of the top two from scoring an outright win on Saturday.
MONDAY
OPEN THREAD. Whatever. TRACKING
THE BATTLEGROUND CONSERVATIVE
US
SENATE ...
AND SOME CONGRESSIONAL RACE NEWS. In Arizona, Congressman
Rick Renzi (R) is a top DCCC target, but a Northern Arizona University
poll shows he is thus far holding off the challenge from Coconino
County Supervisor Paul Babbitt (D). The numbers: Renzi-51%, Babbitt-40%.
In Florida, former Wilton Manors Mayor Jim Stork (D) -- who climbed
for a time into being a DCCC target race candidate -- quit the
contest Friday against Congressman Clay Shaw (R) citing health
reasons. Congressman Peter Deutsch (D), who represents an adjacent
district and lost the primary for US Senate last month, is rumored
to be among the possible replacement nominees for Stork that the
party is discussing. A new Dem nominee is expected to be named
next week. ROSH HASHANAH GREETINGS FROM 1/23 MARINES IN IRAQ. Here's the latest report from our friend and special correspondent Lt. James Crabtree of our "adopted" 1/23 Marines in Iraq:
If
you'd like to send the 1/23d any care packages (food items that
won't melt, batteries, books, magazine, baby wipes, etc.), please
address the packages to Lt Crabtree, 1/23 H&S Co, Unit 41900,
FPO, AP 96426-1900 ... and James will ensure that whatever
you ship gets distributed to the Marines in the 1/23. If you'd
like to read more about our adopted 1/23 Marine battalion in Iraq,
please click here. FRIDAY
OPEN THREAD. It's an open thread ... you know what to do. ROSH
HASHANAH (THURSDAY) OPEN THREAD. Thursday is Rosh
Hashanah -- the Jewish New Year high holiday -- so Ron is
taking the day off for religious reasons. Feel free to use this
thread to discuss anything political that you'd like ... and Ron
will be back with updates on Friday.
IS YOUR CAMPAIGN HIRING? If so, then let us know. We'll post the ad for free for any paid campaign staff positions. See our Jobs page for more details. |
THE
BATTLEGROUND STATES. FLORIDA (CNN/USA Today/Gallup):
Bush widens his lead in this key contest state.
Bush-52%, Kerry-43%, Nader-1%. NEW JERSEY (Fairleigh
Dickinson Univ.): Race in this usualy Dem stronghold
remains very close. The numbers: Kerry-45%,
Bush-44%. OHIO (CNN/USA Today/Gallup): Bush's
narrow lead still holding. The results: Bush-49%,
Kerry-47%. PENNSYLVANIA (CNN/USA Today/Gallup):
The lead keeps see-sawing here. The new numbers:
Bush-49%, Kerry-46%.
KOAA-TV/SurveyUSA
poll, State Rep. John Salazar (D) is leading
State Natural Resources Director Greg Walcher
(R) by a surprisingly wide vote of 52% to 40%.
Interestingly, the same statewide poll showed
Salazar's brother Ken trailing by 5% in the
open US Senate race. Toss-Up. KENTUCKY: Congresswoman
Ann Northup (R) -- who usually faces close races
-- appears to be holding onto her swing seat
in CD-3. The new WHAS-TV/SurveyUSA poll shows
Northup at 52% and Clerk of Courts Tony Miller
(D) at 41%. Leans Republican. WASHINGTON STATE:
In the open CD-8 seat, Dems are hoping to score
a pickup for the seat being vacated by Congresswoman
Jennifer Dunn (R). The new KING-TV/SurveyUSA
poll -- the first post-primary survey -- shows
a very tight contest. The numbers: radio talk
show host Dave Ross (D) - 45%, King County Sheriff
Dave Reichert (R) - 43%. Toss-Up. OKLAHOMA:
CD-1 Congressman John Sullivan (R) is safely
cruising to re-election over former Tulsa School
Board President Doug Dodd (D). A KJRH-TV/SurveyUSA
poll shows Sullivan leading by a 60% to 31%
vote. Safe Republican. ARKANSAS: Another strong
incumbent is CD-2 Congressman Vic Snyder (D).
The incumbent is always viewed as a promising
GOP target, but he surives every time. This
year appears to be similar. The new KTHV-TV/SurveyUSA
poll shows Snyder leading State House Minority
Leader Melvin Parks (R) by a comfortable vote
of 54% to 37%. Democrat favored.
GOVERNOR
RACE UPDATE. DELAWARE: A new WHYY-TV/West
Chester University poll shows that Governor Ruth
Ann Minner (D) appears to be cruising to re-election
over retired Judge Bill Lee (R). The numbers:
Minner-42%, Lee-26%, Frank Infante (Libt) - 2%.
US
HOUSE RACE UPDATE. SOUTH DAKOTA: In the at-large
race, the latest Sioux Falls Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon
poll shows that freshman Congresswoman Stephanie
Herseth (D) is maintaining a comfortable lead
over former State Senator Larry Diedrich (R).
Herseth defeated Diedrich for the seat in the
June 2004 special election by a narrow 51% to
49% vote. The new poll numbers: Herseth-49%, Diedrich-42%,
Terry Begay (Libt)-1%. At this point Herseth looks
more secure that her boyfriend, 4-term Congressman
Max Sandlin (D-TX). Sandlin was gerrymandered
into a newly redrawn Republican-leaning district
late last year. DELAWARE: I have no idea why anyone
wanted to poll on this non-competitive at-large
race, but they did. A new WHYY-TV/West Chester
University poll shows that Congressman Mike Castle
(R) leads social services caseworker Paul Donnelly
(D) by a whopping 61% to 15% vote.
SENATE
OPEN SEAT UPDATES. COLORADO: In a reversal of
fortune, Attorney General Ken Salazar (D) finds
himself trailing for the first time in the state's
open US Senate race. The new KUSA-TV/SurveyUSA poll
shows beer magnate Pete Coors (R) at 51%, and Salazar
at 46%. Incumbent Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) is
retiring. Toss-up. ILLINOIS: State Senator Barack
Obama (D) still holds a landslide lead over former
Ambassador Alan Keyes (R). The new Chicago Tribune/Market
Shares poll gives the advantage to Obama by a 68%
to 17% vote, with "Others" at 3%. Obama
has widened his lead by 10 more points since last
month's poll. US Senator Peter Fitzgerald (R) is
retiring. Safe Democrat. NORTH CAROLINA: Former
White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) is
still holding a solid lead in the race for incumbent
John Edwards' (D) open seat. According to the new
WRAL-TV/Mason-Dixon poll, Bowles leads Congressman
Richard Burr (R) by a vote of 49% to 40%. Bowles
has held similar leads in most independent polls
over the past few months. Leans Democrat.
Also,
I didn't report on this story until a day after
many of the other sites covered it -- so I'm not
doing the outing. Maya is featured in a family photo
on the Keyes campaign site (left), and frequently
campaigns with her father (although Maya bragged
on her own blog site that she usually wears a bunch
of "gay pride" rainbow bracelets while
doing so). The Chicago political blog 
SENATE
RACE UPDATE. In South Dakota, a new independent
poll shows US Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D)
starting to pull away from former Congressman John
Thune (R). The two men had been virtually tied in
nearly all polls for the past seven months. The new
Sioux Falls Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon poll now
show Daschle leading his challenger by a vote of 50%
to 45%. Voters don't seem to particularly like either
man all that much: Daschle has a 37% unfavorable rating
(up 4 points since May) and Thune has a 34% unfavorable
rating (up 11 points since May). The NRSC and White
House have made Daschle a top national target for
the GOP.
RACE
UPDATES. PENNSYLVANIA (Keystone Poll/Franklin
& Marshall College): In the open CD-13 contest,
State Senator Allyson Schwartz (D) appears likely
to win the swing seat being vacated by Congressman
Joe Hoeffel (D). According to the poll, Schwartz leads
surgeon Melissa Brown (R) by a 45% to 34% vote. Schwartz
previously lost a primary for US Senator in 2000,
while Brown previously lost runs for this US House
seat in 1998, 2000 and 2002. Schwartz has raised nearly
$2.7 million as of the most recent FEC reporting period,
versus $1 million for Brown. FLORIDA: According to
Florida Secretary of State Glenda Hood's office, former
Wilton Manors Mayor Jim Stork (D) waited until too
late to file papers withdrawing his once highly touted
candidacy for Congress against incumbent Clay Shaw
(R). State Democratic official formally disagree with
Hood's interpretation -- but it probably won't matter.
However, a well-placed Dem source said that the party
-- after failed attempts to convince several big-name
Dems to run -- had already abandoned plans to find
any replacement nominee for Stork even before Hood
issued her decision.
Florida
polls over the past two weeks. "Conditions from Panama
City to Pensacola are still just beginning to recover
[from Hurricane Ivan], and as of yesterday hundreds of
thousands were still without power and essential services.
How is it that [those pollsters] could have conducted
a statewide poll in Florida [on those dates] and include
voters from the western panhandle counties? Any poll that
did not include those areas is heavily skewed in favor
of Kerry, and I would question the ability to survey voters
during a weekend when most were in the process of picking
up the pieces from the storm. I have wanted to poll in
Florida for the past several weeks, but because at least
one part of the state was evacuated under threat of a
storm, being hit by a hurricane and/or was without power
and phones because of a hurricane strike, it has been
impossible to do so in a responsible and professional
manner. This fact calls into question the legitimacy of
these ... polls," he explained. Interesting. IOWA
(WHO-TV/SurveyUSA); Bush-50%, Kerry-46%, Nader-1%. IOWA
(KCCI-TV/Research 2000): Bush-47%, Kerry-45%, Nader-2%.
IOWA (Fox News): Bush-48%, Kerry-45%. MAINE (WCSH-TV/SurveyUSA):
Bush-47%, Kerry-46%, Others/Undecided-7%. The "Nader
factor" is clearly having an effect here. MICHIGAN
(WDIV-TV/SurveyUSA): Kerry-52%, Bush-42%. MICHIGAN (Fox
News): Kerry-46%, Bush-44%, Nader-1%. OHIO (Fox News):
Bush-48%, Kerry-45%, Nader-2%. PENNSYLVANIA (Fox News):
Kerry-50%, Bush-45%, Nader-1%. WASHINGTON (Elway Poll):
Kerry-52%, Bush-38%. WISCONSIN (Milwaukee Journal
Sentinel/Badger Poll): Bush-52%, Kerry-38%, Nader-4%.
SENATE
RACE UPDATES. FLORIDA (CNN/USA Today/Gallup):
Former State Education Commissioner Betty Castor (D) -
51%, Former HUD Secretary Mel Martinez (R) - 45%. FLORIDA
(Quinnipiac College): Castor-43%, Martinez-42%. Toss-up
race for this Dem open seat. IOWA (KCCI-TV/Research 2000):
US Senator Chuck Grassley (R) - 66%, former State Senator
Art Small (D) - 15%. Republican safe seat. OKLAHOMA (KFOR-TV/SurveyUSA):
Congressman Brad Carson (D) - 45%, former Congressman
Tom Coburn (R) - 45%, Sheila Bilyeu (I) - 6%. Toss-up
-- and a possible Dem pickup -- in the GOP open seat race.
Coburn is running nearly 20-points behind Bush in the
state. WASHINGTON (Elway Poll): US Senator Patty Murray
(D) - 57%, Congressman George Nethercutt (R) - 37%. Dem
favored. Nethercutt will find it very tough to narrow
this wide gap.
GOVERNOR
CONTEST NUMBERS. WASHINGTON (Elway Poll): Attorney
General Chris Gregoire (D) - 49%, State Senator Dino Rossi
(R) - 38%. WASHINGTON (Tacoma News Tribune/Ipsos):
Gregoire-49%, Rossi-43%. One newspaper poll yesterday
said the race is a virtual tie, but these two both give
the edge to the Dem. Toss-up.
SENATE
RACE UPDATES. COLORADO (Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli):
Attorney General Ken Salazar (D) - 46%, beer magnate Pete
Coors (R) - 45%. Toss-up. SOUTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): Congressman
Jim DeMint (R) - 51%, State Superintendent of Education
Inez Tenenbaum (D) -39%. The Dem recently shook-up her staff,
but that has not revived her flagging campaign. DeMint favored.
WASHINGTON (KING-TV/SurveyUSA): US Senator Patty Murray
(D) - 53%, Congressman George Nethercutt (R) - 41%. Netherecutt
still looks weak, as he continues to lag several points
behind the other top GOP statewide candidates here. Murray
favored. WISCONSIN (ABC News): US Senator Russ Feingold
(D) - 51%, construction executive Tim Michels (R) - 45%.
The incumbent's once huge lead here has rapidly dwindled.
Leans Feingold. 
APPEAR
TO AGREE ON SOMETHING. They don't usually agree on any
issues relating to the Middle East, Israel, Arafat, Iraq,
and so forth ... but both American Jews and Muslims appear
to agree on which candidate they support for President.
A poll conducted for the American Jewish Committee -- a
group closely aligned with the Israeli hardliners supportive
of the Ariel Sharon government -- found that 69% of Jewish-Americans
plan to vote for Kerry, while 24% support Bush. These numbers
reflect a drop for Bush, who had the support of 31% of Jewish
voters in the last AJC poll several months ago. Jewish voters
are reliably a heavy pro-Democratic voting block. The surprise
is that Arab-Americans have apparently abandoned their previous
support for Bush. A new American Muslim Poll conducted by
Zogby for Georgetown University's Muslims in the American
Public Square (Project MAPS) shows that Muslim-Americans
currently back Kerry by a 76% to 7% landslide margin. The
same poll of voters in the 2000 race showed that Bush won
the Muslim vote over Gore by a healthy 11-point margin.
While Jews and Muslims combine to form less than 5% of the
US electorate, Jews are a significant voting block in Florida
and Arab-Americans are a large voting block in Michigan.
Minnesota
State House in the early 1980s -- qualified for a spot on
the Presidential ballot in that battleground state. Harens,
who left the Democratic Party in favor of Jesse Ventura's
Independence Party several years ago, will appear on the ballot
as the nominee of the "
CHAFEE
"DO A JEFFORDS" NEXT YEAR? US Senator Lincoln
Chafee (R-RI) is one of the most liberal Republicans in the
US Senate. He's pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control
and pro-environmental protections. And -- if the Senate ends
up a 50-50 tie after the November elections -- DC insiders
believe he would likely weigh the option of bolting to the Democrats.
Shortly after US Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont quit the
GOP in 2001 and gave majority control of the Senate to the
Democrats, Chafee was quoted in some stories saying he would
consider switching parties if he ever thought it would "make
a difference" on the issues he cares about. In a new
sign that Chafee is making an extra effort to draw attention
to his independent streak, he surprised a group of journalists
Tuesday morning with his comments on the Presidential race.
The Providence Journal reported that Chafee backed
off his earlier comments about supporting Bush. Today, Chafee
stunned listeners by saying that he plans to vote for a Republican
for President in November ... but that it would probably not
be Bush. When asked to clarify, Chafee said he would likely
write-in a Republican but did not yet know who he planned
to write-in. When asked if he would write-in for John McCain's
name, Chafee said probably not. Chafee -- the only GOP Senator
to vote against the President's 2002 Iraq war resolution --
explained: "I'm not sure I like his position on the war."
Besides, added the Senator, it doesn't matter who he votes
for because Kerry is expected to win Rhode Island by a wide
margin. Chafee next faces re-election in 2006.
"WORKERS
OF THE WORLD, BUY STUFF!" While doing site updates
here the other day, I visited the official site of the Communist
Party-USA. The CPUSA -- once the slavish propaganda tool and
a spy network of the now defunct Soviet Central Committee
-- has clearly experienced a forced transformation in recent
years since the fall of global communism. Gone are the days
of Gus Hall, Earl Browder and the other late hardliners of
American communism. In their place is a party that now espouses
a Gorbachev-style perestroika system of democratic
socialism. Of course, the most amusing proof of this new embrace
of capitalism is the online store on the 
CAMPAIGN.
More
than just a date on the calendar -- which, of course, happens
to be Election Day -- "NOVEMBER 2" is also a creative
advertising campaign created by 
Meanwhile,
the CD-3 contest in Nevada is starting to look competitive.
That same Mason-Dixon poll shows Congressman Jon Porter (R)
leading wealthy gaming executive Tom Gallagher (D) by a 51%
to 40% vote. Gallagher has narrowed Porter's lead by 12-points
since the same poll of two months ago. Porter said he was "cautiously
optimistic" about the numbers, while Gallagher says he
now has the momentum. ILLINOIS: A new KMOV-TV/Research 2000
poll shows Barack Obama (D) pulling even further ahead and now
certain to score a landslide in November over Alan Keyes (R)
for the open US Senate seat. The numbers: Obama-68%, Keyes-23%.
KENTUCKY: The Louisville Courier Journal shows that
challenger State Senator Dan Mongiardo (D) has not developed
into any threat to the re-election chances of US Senator Jim
Bunning (R). The numbers: Bunning-51%, Mongiardo-34%. MISSOURI:
The new St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Research 2000 poll
shows US Senator Kit Bond (R) continuing to hold a comfortable
lead over State Treasurer Nancy Farmer (D) by a 53% to 38% vote.
However, the open gubernatorial contest remains extremely close:
Matt Blunt (R)-46%, Claire McCaskell (D)-45%.
United
Fascist Union. Grimes -- who previously ran for President as
a write-in candidate in 2000 -- bills himself as the "Leader
and Director of the United Fascist Union." As for his use
of the word "Fascist," this former Army corporal explains
he wants to restore a New World Order based upon the governmental
style of Imperial Rome "to institute a military dictatorship
form of government over the Earth." Grimes believes that
"the psychic is the next great step in the evolution of
humankind on this planet." And it gets even weirder: Grimes
wants to address "the dilemmas now facing America and the
whole of Western civilization: Democracy, Christianity, International
Capitalism, Earth Changes, U.F.O.'s, government cover-ups, and
others." Citing to Cayce and Nostradamus, Grimes predicts
that "the United States will be reduced from its present
size to a small triangular-shaped land mass through the loss
of many of its coastal states." While those quotes come
from his old 2000 campaign site, 
BALLOT.
The Florida Supreme Court ruled 6-1 on Friday to reinstate
Ralph Nader to the ballot in the state. A lower court knocked
Nader off the ballot a week earlier, ruling that the Reform Party
of the US was no longer a legitimate national party entitled to
automatic ballot status for their nominee and that the party's
conference call that bestowed the nomination on Nader did not
meet the state law requirement that Nader was nominated at a "national
convention" of the party. The Florida Supremes hled that
as Florida did not specifically define what qualifies as a national
party or as a national convention, the court would not seek to
do so at this late date in the election season. .
LEADER
SAVAGES OHIO GOP GOV. Anti-tax activist Grover Norquist --
one of the founding members of today's national conservative movement
within the Republican Party -- was captured on tape this week
making some very unflattering comments about Ohio Governor Bob
Taft (R). While answering questions from the Republicans Abroad
group, he was asked to speak about the key battleground states
for President Bush. Here is how Norquist answered: "The key
battleground states: we have to hold Ohio. Okay, we have an idiot,
stupid, corrupt, dumb, rotten, Republican Governor in the state,
who's been busy looting the state, and raising taxes, and lying
to gun owners. And his state is the only state in the nation that's
lost jobs and isn't recovering because he's been beating the economy
to death in the state. But [Taft] is not on the ballot -- George
Bush is on the ballot. And we've got to overcome what we've had
in Illinois, too, [in 2000] which is a Republican Governor busy
raising taxes and pissing everybody off -- and now we've got that
in Ohio. It's not helpful. He should be taken out and horsewhipped."
RACE
UPDATES. In Georgia, Congressman Johnny Isakson (R) looks
well on his was to scoring a GOP pickup over Congresswoman Denise
Majette (D). The new WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA poll shows Isakson holding
a huge lead: 58% to 38%. Dems are poised to immediately cancel
out that pickup with one of their own in Illinois. The WBBM-TV/SurveyUSA
poll shows State Senator Barack Obama (D) destroying conservative
activist Alan Keyes (R) by a landslide vote of 65% to 24%. In
Oklahoma, Sooner Poll -- a GOP polling firm -- released a new
state survey that shows Congressman Brad Carson (D) leading former
Congressman Tom Coburn (R) by a 42% to 35% vote. Coburn has been
hit in recent days by negative stories related to comments he
made calling some state legislators "crapheads," some
insensitive remarks about Native Americans made before a group
of Cherokee Nation voters, and news stories in which a woman has
come forward to say that Coburn -- as a physician -- involuntarily
sterilized her during an operation and later allegedly lied to
claim he had her oral permission to perform the procedure. Coburn
said he performed the procedure years ago while trying to save
the woman's life during emergency surgery. In Pennsylvania, yet
another poll gives US Senator Arlen Specter (R) a big lead over
Congressman Joe Hoeffel (D). According to the ABC News poll, the
race is: Specter-55%, Hoeffel-38%.
SPECIAL:
"THINGS THAT I HATE" OPEN THREAD. Thursday is not
only the Jewish New Year, but it is also the first day of the
NHL hockey lockout following the breakdown of the NHL-NHLPA negotiations
on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Thus, I hereby declare
today to be "I'm pissed off at the NHL-Gary Bettman-Owners/NHLPA-Bob
Goodenow-Players" Day #1. The score: Greed-1, Fans-0. So
... what gets you pissed off? CBS documents ... or Swift Boat
vet claims ... Bush or Kerry ... Nader ... spoilers ... major
party arrogance ... or possibly some non-political stuff? Tell
us! 
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