The Most Comprehensive Guide to U.S. Politics ... since 1997
| DIRECTORY:
Home | The Presidency
| P2008 Race | State/Federal
Candidates | Political Parties Calendar | Campaign Products & Services | Issues | News Blog | News Links | Job Bank FAQ | View from Abroad | Bookstore | Our Awards | Advertise | About Us | Email Us |
| BLOG ARCHIVE: AUGUST 1-31, 2008.
HURRICANE CURTAILS GOP CONVO OPENING; BOTH CAMPAIGNS OFFER ASSISTANCE TO STORM VICTIMS.
McCAIN PICKS PALIN FOR VEEP, CONSERVATIVES PRAISE MOVE; NEW PREZ POLLS. McCAIN-PALIN P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: OBAMA'S BIG SPEECH; McCAIN TO NAME VEEP FRIDAY; 1/23 MARINES REDUX; AND SOME NEW POLLS. DEMOCRATIC
CONVENTION. Barack McCAIN. John McCain will announce his VP runningmate choice at an Ohio rally on Friday. According to various news sources, the short-list finalists are reported to include Mitt Romney, Tom Ridge, Tim Pawlenty, Joe Lieberman and Kay Bailey Hutchison. Stay tuned. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. Here are the latest independent polls for US
Senate races. CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. BILL CLINTON EMBRACES OBAMA, JOE'S VP DEBUT; YOUNG HOLDING ON IN ALASKA; LOTS OF SENATE, GOV & HOUSE POLLS. DEMOCRATIC
CONVENTION. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: ALASKA. With 99.8% of the vote counted, embattled 18-term Congressman Don Young (R) moved into a 152 vote lead over Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell in the GOP primary. State election officials say several thousand requested absentee ballots have not yet been returned and any ballots postmarked by primary day will be counted so long as they are received within ten days of Tuesday's primary. Thus, we won't know until late next week whether Young or Parnell is the Republican nominee. The winner will face former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D) in November. US
SENATE. Here are the latest independent polls for US
Senate races. CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US House races. GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: STEVENS WINS IN ALASKA, YOUNG RACE TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL; GOP VEEPSTAKES; HILLARY PRAISES OBAMA. Very brief posting today, as I didn't have time to write much on Tuesday night. I was at the victory party for my boss -- and she won re-election with 82%!! ALASKA. As exepcted, indicted US Senator Ted Stevens (R) easily won renomination Tuesday in the seven-man GOP primary with 63% of the vote. His nearest opponent, former State Representative Dave Cuddy, captured 27%. Stevens -- who goes on trial in Octorber on federal corruption charges -- faces Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) in November. The results of the hot GOP congressional primary remained undecided in the early morning hours. With 89% of the vote counted, embattled 18-term Congressman Don Young (R) was trailing Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell by just 142 votes. State Representative Gabrielle LeDoux was a distant third with just 9%. The official vote count is being posted here. Young is the target of an ongoing federal corruption probe. Former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz won the Democratic primary for the congressional seat. McCAIN. According to various media reports, John McCain is now planning to announce his VP pick on Friday, just one day after the close of the Democratic convention. DEMOCRATIC
CONVENTION. Tuesday night saw Senator Hillary Clinton's
big speech. Clinton said she was a "proud supporter of Barack
Obama" and added that "Barack Obama is my candidate.
And he must be our President." ALASKA, FLORIDA PRIMARY PREVIEW; DEM CONVO UPDATE; SEVEN NEW POLLS. There may -- or may not -- be an update on Tuesday evening. I'll be celebrating at the primary victory party for my boss, so I may not post anything. Or maybe I will. ALASKA.
The hottest political story of FLORIDA. There are eleven congressional contests on Tuesday's ballot, with two races of particular note. In CD-15, four Republicans are competing to replace retiring Congressman Dave Weldon (R). State Senator Bill Posey is solidly backed by Weldon and the GOP establishment, and should win handily. In CD-16, the NRCC has made freshman Congressman Tim Mahoney (D) one of the party's top 3 national targets. Mahoney won in the fluke election after Congressman Mark Foley (R) was forced to withdraw late in the race after being implicated in a sex scandal. Three Republicans are battling it out for the seat, with wealthy attorney Tom Rooney and State Representative Gayle Harrell viewed as the frontrunners. Either one will make this race a toss-up contest in November. DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION. Monday night saw what may be ailing Senator Ted Kennedy's final convention speech to the party, plus Michelle Obama' big address. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. Here are the latest independent polls for US
Senate races. OBAMA TAPS BIDEN; DEM CONVO OPENS IN DENVER; AND 26 NEW POLLS. VEEPSTAKES.
Barack DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION. The Democratic convention opens on Monday in Denver. Despite the decision to place Hillary Clinton's name in nomination and allow a Presidential roll call vote, look for the convo to largely be -- at the surface level -- a well-orchestrated love-fest. The key events to watch are the roll call vote and the speeches of Obama, Biden and Hillary Clinton. The GOP convo next week will also likely be equally free of major news. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. Here are the latest independent polls for US
Senate races. CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US Senate races. GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: SATURDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Barack Obama kept everyone waiting
on Friday -- but still no VP pick. Joe Biden and Chet Edwards
are both among those names still believed to be in play. Most
now believe Biden will be the VP candidate. NBC reports Evan Bayh
and Tim Kaine were among those who received calls from Obama informing
them they will not be the runningmate.
FRIDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Barack Obama made a VP announcement
on Thursday: "I know something you don't know" (well,
maybe I'm slightly misquoting him, but this is basically what
he said) ... John McCain and Obama exchanged jabs over their respective
homes. One (albeit big) for Obama, and seven (or maybe eight)
for McCain. McCain wasn't quite sure how many he has ... McCain
also told Politico he is absolutely "not considering"
making a single-term pledge. THURSDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones
(D-OH) died unexpectedly Wednesday at age 58, less than a day
after suffering a brain aneurysm while driving to a meeting. Party
leaders will select a replacement nominee -- likely next month
-- to fill her safely Democratic CD-11 seat ... Also, we updated
our Wyoming and Washington
pages to reflect the primary winners from Tuesday ... And nothing
new on the VP front from either camp. WEDNESDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Some rain, some wind, some waves ...
Fay was rather slow and boring (which was okay, compared with
the 2005 hurricanes) ... and nothing new on the VP front besides
lots of conflicting rumors. Also, here's something new: click
here to view our Ballot Access Chart
to see which Presidential candidates are on the ballot in your
state (note: keep in mind filing is still open in some states). MONDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. While Hurricane Fay is expected to
sweep up and strike the gulf coast side of the Florida, those
of us here on the Atlantic coast are expected to experience tropical
storm conditions on Monday night/Tuesday daytime. Just some heavy
winds (under 40 mph) and lots of rain for us, so no big deal really.
FRIDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Another day, another open thread. THURSDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Arkansas Democratic Chair Bill Gwatney
was shot and killed on Wednesday after a gunman burst into state
party headquarters. The shooter was later killed by police following
a high-speed chase ... John McCain launched a trial balloon in
an interview with the Weekly Standard when he said he
would now possibly be open to selecting a pro-choice VP runningmate
like Tom Ridge, but said he couldn't go so far as to consider
Mike Bloomberg because the NYC Mayor is just too staunchly pro-gay
rights. WEDNESDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Yup, your turn again. TUESDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Tuesday is congressional primary day
in Colorado and Nevada
... Russia's military invasion drives deeper into Georgia ...
Bush returns to the White House ... and the Olympic games continue.
MONDAY
FREE SPEECH ZONE. It's all about you. WEEKEND
FREE SPEECH ZONE. Have at it. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. With the Olympics starting on Friday, it
means most political news will take a back seat for a little while.
The Obama family is going off on vacation, and I'd guess that
John and Cindy McCain will also sneak off for a little down time.
Unless some major political news breaks, I'm just going to post
daily open threads until the end of the games. VEEP PICKS DEFERRED; NEW PREZ, US SEN, CONGRESS, GOV POLLS. VEEPSTAKES. Barack Obama's visit to Indiana -- accompanied by Evan Bayh -- came and went with no VP announcement. Lots of mutual praise, but no Veep pick. In fact, it's starting to look like Obama plans to go off on his Hawaii family vacation and seemingly defer making any public pick until after the Olympics end. Ditto for McCain likely to defer any VP decision until after the games end. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. Here are the latest independent polls for US
Senate races. CONGRESS.
Here are the latest independent polls for US Senate races. GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: JENKINS, HULSHOF & KILPATRICK WIN NARROW PRIMARY VICTORIES; MARTIN WINS BIG IN GA. KANSAS. The hottest Kansas race of the day was the GOP primary in CD-2. State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins narrowly defeated social conservative former Congressman Jim Ryun by a vote of 51% to 49%. Jenkins is a a GOP centrist, while Ryun is a leader of the Religious Right wing of the Kansas Republican Party. Jenkins is expected to be a highly competitive challenger in the general election against vulnerable freshman Congressman Nancy Boyda (D). Jenkins' first test will be to forge party unity after a bruising primary in a state well known for lasting rifts between the two rival GOP ideological factions. Also, as expected, former Congressman Jim Slattery (D) scored a landslide win in his US Senate primary on Tuesday. Slattery will face US Senator Pat Roberts (R) in November. MICHIGAN. Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick narrowly won her renomination fight in CD-13. Kilpatrick won 39%, followed by former State Representative Mary Waters at 36%, and State Senator Martha Scott third with 25%. Kilpatrick enjoyed a lopsided advantage in primary campaign cash: $500,000 for the incumbent versus roughly $10,000 apiece spent by each of the two challengers. Waters said on Monday she may continue her campaign into the general election as either a write-in or under a third party banner. Waters refused to concede the race Tuesday night. MISSOURI. Congressman Kenny Hulshof defeated State Treasurer Sarah Steelman in the costly gubernatorial primary by a vote of 49% to 45%. Hulshof will face Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) in November. In the open CD-9 contest to fill Hulshof's House seat, former State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer won the GOP nomination by a 9-point lead over the nearest of his four opponents. On the Dem side, State Representative Judy Baker likewise won by a 9-point margin over the nearest of her three primary competitors. GEORGIA. Former State Representative Jim Martin (D) cruised on Tuesday to an easy US Senate run-off victory over DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones. Martin had placed second in the primary, but the party seemed to rally behind Martin over the past few weeks as Independent polls show he was significantly stronger than Jones against US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) for the general election. Martin defeated Jones by a 60% to 40% vote. US
SENATE. Just one independent poll today for the US Senate
races: ANOTHER CONGRESSIONAL INCUMBENT COULD FALL ON PRIMARY DAY IN KANSAS, MICHIGAN, MISSOURI; RUN-OFF DAY IN GEORGIA; AND SIX NEW PREZ POLLS. KANSAS. Former Congressman Jim Slattery (D) will win an easy victory in Tuesday's US Senate primary. Slattery will face US Senator Pat Roberts (R) in November. Senate race rating: GOP Favored. The hot race to watch in the state on Tuesday is the GOP primary in CD-2. State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins and former Congressman Jim Ryun are locked in a very tough contest symbolic of the ongoing split within the Kansas Republican Party. Jenkins is from the moderate wing of the party, while Ryun is closely aligned with the hardcore Religious Right faction. Traditionally the candidates from the conservative wing of the party win low turnout primary contests, so we'd give Ryun a slight edge. Either one will provide a highly competitive challenge in the general election against freshman Congressman Nancy Boyda (D). Boyda is possibly the most endangered House Democrat in the nation. Race rating: No Clear Favorite.
MISSOURI. Two Republicans -- Congressman Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman -- are waging a costly gubernatorial primary to replace unpopular retiring Governor Matt Blunt (R). Polls in the final days show Hulhof holding an advantage. The winner will face Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) in November. Race rating: Leans DEM. The two CD-9 primaries for Hulshof's open seat are also hotly contested, with five Republicans and four Democrats running. On the GOP side, former State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer and State Representative Bob Onder are the frontrunners, although former pro football player Brock Olivo also continues to generate some attention. On the Dem side, State Representative Judy Baker appears to be a slight favorite over former State House Speaker Steve Gaw, former State Senator Ken Jacob and Marion County Commissioner Lyndon Bode. The three men are all to the right of Baker, which is likely help her by splitting the more centrist and Blue Dog vote. Baker has also outraised her primary foes in campaign cash. Race rating: GOP Favored. GEORGIA. Tuesday is also primary run-off day in the Peach State. While DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones placed first in last month's Democratic primary for US Senate, he is likely to lose today. The primary opponents eliminated last month have rallied behind former State Representative Jim Martin -- the '06 Lieutenant Governor nominee -- and Martin appears likely to defeat Jones. Independent polls also show Martin significantly stronger against US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) in the general election, although the incumbent will still be favored over Martin. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: BAYH, CANTOR RISE IN VEEPSTAKES; SIX PREZ POLLS; MORE ALASKA NUMBERS ON STEVENS; SENATORS DOLE, CORNYN LEAD; NIXON LEADS FOR MO GOV; MO CD-6 RACE TIGHTENS. VEEPSTAKES.
P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent state polls on the Presidential race: US
SENATE. ALASKA - Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell (R)
told Roll Call he does not intend to switch into the
US Senate race if indicted incumbent Ted Stevens (R) withdraws
after the primary, nor does he expect Governor Sarah Palin (R)
to become the replacement nominee if it comes open (note: Parnell
doesn't expect Stevens to quit). Meanwhile ... here are the latest
independent polls for US Senate races: GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests: CONGRESS.
The new independent polls for the US House contests: OBAMA AHEAD IN FL, OH, PA; McCAIN LEADING IN ID, KY, TX; SEN STEVENS TRAILS BY 13; McCONNELL WIDENS LEAD; MICHIGAN CONGRESSWOMAN ENDANGERED IN PRIMARY. P2008
- DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the
latest independent polls from swing states (and states that appear
to be evolving into swing states): US
SENATE. Here are the latest independent polls for US
Senate races.
CONGRESS.
DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen told Roll Call there are
75 House seats seriously "in play" this year -- and
50 of those seats are currently held by Republicans. The new independent
polls for the US House contests. |
JOIN
THE POLITICS1
BLOG
ARCHIVE: POLITICAL BLOG ROLL: KINDA
NEUTRAL: DEM/LEFT: GOP/RIGHT: OTHER:
For those who would like to track Politics1 with a newsreader, we publish a RSS feed:
|
REPUBLICAN
CONVENTION. As killer Hurricane Gustav approached the
Louisiana coast -- with an expected landfall Monday -- GOP leaders
announced a curtailing of Monday's opening day schedule in Minneapolis-St.
Paul. President Bush and Vice President Cheney both canceled planned
convention speeches and will instead focus on storm response activities.
Other canceled speakers include First Lady Laura Bush and California
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The RNC will instead hold a brief
"business only" session. The Tuesday schedule may also
be impacted, but there will be no decision until some time on
Monday. Also, the McCain campaign chartered a jet to fly 30+ Alabama,
Mississippi and Louisiana delegates home to the Gulf region on
Sunday to check on family and property, and will give them the
option of returning on the jet to Minnesota with additional family
members. Republicans understand that they cannot be seen to be
overly partisan in the face of a national catastrophe -- but also
are concerned that curtailing too many convention activities may
minimize any "convention bounce" for McCain. In related
news, the Barack Obama campaign announced plans to use their massive
email list of supporters to solicit money and volunteers for disaster
relief activities in the aftermath of the storm.
.
John McCain used his 72nd birthday on Friday to name Alaska Governor
Sarah Palin -- a 44-year-old mother of five -- as his Vice Presidential
runningmate. It was a bold political gamble to select Palin as
his runningmate. Conservative Republicans quickly praised the
choice, saying Palin is an energetic campaigner and political
reformer. Religious right leader James Dobson said the selection
made it easy for him to now support McCain. Conservatives note
Palin is staunchly pro-life, pro-gun rights, pro-tax cuts and
pro-oil drilling. The Anchorage Daily News also reported
Palin "thinks creationism should be taught alongside evolution
in the state's public classrooms." Conservative pundit Pat
Buchanan also noted on MSNBC that Palin openly supported his 2000
cultural conservative Presidential run for the GOP nomination:
"She's a great choice for the base ... She's a Buchananite."
Democrats, by contrast, questioned the wisdom of selecting someone
so inexperienced to be just a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
They note Palin was formerly mayor of a town of 9,000 residents
and is now just 20 months into her first term as Governor. McCain
clearly intends the move to help him pick-up support from independent
women voters. Untested on the national stage, it is simply too
early to tell if Palin will prove on the trail to be a brilliant
political pick or another Dan Quayle.
Obama
gave his biggest campaign speech to date before a outdoor crowd
of 80,000 in Denver, just one day after he officially became the
Democratic Presidential nominee. In trademark Obama style, he
delivered another impressive, landmark address. At turns inspiring,
at others feisty, he talked of his America and defined his vision
for a better America than we've had for these past eight years.
Like his speech the night of his Iowa victory in January, Obama
gave another speech that will be remembered as great American
political oratory. FYI: Don't know if any of you caught it
but wounded Iraq War veteran Jon Kuniholm -- one of the 1/23 Marines
that Politics1 "adopted" in 2004 during our 
Barack
Obama officially became the Democratic Presidential nominee, with
Senator Hillary Clinton interrupting the delegate roll call to
personally move Obama's nomination be made unanimous by acclimation.
Former President Bill Clinton enthusiastically jumped onto the
Obama bandwagon on Wednesday, giving a rousing pro-Obama speech
at the convention. Senator Joe Biden also gave a VP acceptance
speech which praised John McCain's record of service but blistered
his political stances. Biden clearly relishes taking up the traditional
runningmate role of being the ticket's attack dog.
Tuesday
comes form the coldest state in the nation. US Senator Ted Stevens
(R) -- recently indicted on federal corruption charges -- is facing
an aggressive primary challenge from former State Representative
Dave Cuddy and wealthy businessman Vic Vickers. Polls, however,
show Stevens holding a landslide lead over his GOP foes. With
Stevens likely to win Tuesday's primary, he will remain a slim
underdog against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) in November.
The big upset on Tuesday may come in the at-large US House race.
Congressman Don Young (R) -- also the target of a federal corruption
probe -- appears much more endangered on Tuesday. Polls show the
powerful 18-term incumbent locked in a virtual tie with Lieutenant
Governor Sean Parnell for the Republican nomination, with State
Representative Gabrielle LeDoux trailing far behind. Popular Governor
Sarah Palin and the Club for Growth are backing Parnell, but Young
has been running a very feisty and combative campaign in these
final days. Former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz
will easily win the Democratic congressional primary. If Young
wins the primary, Berkowitz will be a slight favorite in the general
election. If Parnell defeats Young, he will be favored to win
in November.
MICHIGAN.
There are five congressional primaries on Tuesday, but the only
race worth watching is the hot CD-13 Democratic primary. Congresswoman
Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick -- the mother and staunchest defender
of indicted Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick -- is facing the fight
of her political life. State Senator Martha Scott and former State
Representative Mary Waters are both aggressive challengers to
the incumbent, although recent polling shows Waters being the
stronger of the two. Kilpatrick is counting on the two challengers
splitting the opposition vote, allowing her to narrowly win another
term. However, Kilpatrick is clearly vulnerable and appears likely
to lose Tuesday if Waters can gain a solid advantage over Scott.
The winner of the primary -- any of the three -- will win in November
in this solidly Dem district.
The
new buzz this weekend -- and, let's face it, even the so-called
experts are all guessing here -- is that Obama plans to announce
Evan Bayh as his runningmate on Tuesday. Why? Because the Obama
press corps was informed over the weekend they will be in Indiana
on Tuesday and Wednesday, yet there are no campaign events in
the state on Obama's published schedule. On the GOP side, the
media's spotlight of speculation was shining on US House Chief
Deputy Minority Whip Eric Cantor. Cantor reportedly is being seriously
vetted. Why?x He's young, conservative, Jewish, and from the swing
state of Virginia. Stay tuned.
NORTH
CAROLINA (Research 2000): US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 50%,
State Senator Kay Hagen (D) - 42%.
GOVERNOR.
The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests.
The
Presidency | P2008 Race | The
States | Calendar | Blog Archives
Political Parties | News
Links | Issues | Job Bank
| Issues | FAQ
Campaign Products & Services | Campaign
Buttons | Bookstore | About
Us | E-Mail
© 1997-2008 by Ron Gunzburger. All rights reserved.