ARCHIVE: JUNE 16-30, 2008.
PLANS TRIP ABROAD; LATEST POLLS; GOP LEADER BLEAK ON SENATE RACES;
R.I. FILING CLOSES.
Barack Obama announced he will travel to Iraq, Israel, Jordan,
and Europe this summer to meet with various heads of state. Meanwhile,
here are the latest independent polls from swing states:
ARIZONA (Rasmussen): McCain
- 49%, Obama - 40%.
NEW JERSEY (Fairleigh
Dickinson Univ): Obama - 49%, McCain - 33%.
OHIO (SurveyUSA): Obama
- 48%, McCain - 46.
TEXAS (Rasmussen): McCain
- 48%, Obama - 39%.
Obama - 49%, McCain - 47%.
SENATE. "We are not going to be back in the majority
in the Senate next year. The numbers make that impossible ...
I'm optimistic we can stay roughly where we are," said US
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) on Sunday to CNN.
McConnell is one of the GOP incumbents the Dems are targeting
for defeat this year.
US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) holds comfortable leads over all
of his Democatic challengers, according to a new Rasmussen poll.
Depending on the challenger, Chambliss leads by margins ranging
from 13-27 points. In all matchups, Chambliss hovers a few points
above the 50% mark. The closest contest: Chambliss - 52%, former
State Representative Jim Martin - 39%.
ISLAND. Filing closed in Rhode Island
last week, leaving all three federal incumbents safe. US Senator
Jack Reed (D) faces two gadfly primary opponents in September,
then is expected to roll to a landslide victory in November over
casino worker Bob Tingle (R). Congressmen Patrick Kennedy (D)
and Jim Langevin (D) both drew minor general election challengers.
by Ron Gunzburger - 06.30.08 | Permalink
SPEECH ZONE. Have at it.
by Ron Gunzburger - 06.28.08 | Permalink
OF NEW PREZ SWING STATE & US SENATE POLLS.
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton hold
their first unity event on Friday in -- fittingly -- Unity, New
Hampshire. Also, conservative columnist Robert Novak reports that
former Secretary of State Colin Powell is poised to break with
GOP and endorse Obama for President some time this summer. Meanwhile,
here are the latest independent polls from swing states:
COLORADO (Quinnipiac University):
Obama - 49%, McCain - 44%.
MICHIGAN (Quinnipiac University):
Obama - 48%, McCain - 42%.
University): Obama - 54%, McCain - 37%.
McCain - 50%, Obama - 44%.
McCain - 51%, Obama - 36%.
TEXAS (Texas Lyceum):
McCain - 43%, Obama - 38%.
University): Obama - 52%, McCain - 39%.
SENATE. Some new polls ...
COLORADO (Quinnipiac University):
Congressman Mark Udall (D) - 48%, former Congressman Bob Schaffer
(R) - 38%.
University): US Senator Norm Coleman (R) - 51%, humorist Al Franken
(D) - 41%.
MISSISSIPPI - REGULAR
ELECTION (Rasmussen): US Senator Thad Cochran (R) - 59%, State
Rep. Erik Fleming (D) - 32%.
MISSISSIPPI - SPECIAL
ELECTION (Rasmussen): US Senator Roger Wicker (R) - 48%, former
Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) - 47%.
NEW JERSEY (Fairleigh
Dickinson University): US Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) - 48%,
former Congressman Dick Zimmer (R) - 28%.
TEXAS (Texas Lyceum):
US Senator John Cornyn (R) - 38%, State Representative Rick Noriega
(D) - 36%.
by Ron Gunzburger - 06.27.08 | Permalink
STATE POLLS; JOHANNS WIDENS LEAD; CHAFFETZ OUSTS REP CANNON ...
AND AN EDITORIAL AGAINST HOYER'S FISA COMPROMISE.
No surprise, but the AFL-CIO is finally set to endorsed Barack
Obama on Thursday. Meanwhile, here are the latest independent
polls from swing states:
ARIZONA (Arizona State
Univ.): McCain - 38%, Obama - 28%.
Obama - 58%, McCain - 30%.
McCain - 50%, Obama - 43%.
NEW MEXICO (SurveyUSA):
Obama - 49%, McCain - 46%.
According to a new Rasmussem survey, former Governor Mike Johanns
(R) now leads rancher Scott Kleeb (D) by a wide margin of 60%
to 33% in the open US Senate race. Johanns has widened his lead
by 12-points since last month's poll.
Jason Chaffetz (R) -- former Chief of Staff to Governor Jon Huntsman
(R) -- scored a landslide primary victory Tuesday over Congressman
Chris Cannon (R). Until election day, polls showed the two men
locked in a close race. Chaffetz successfully attacked Cannon
as a supporter of asylum for illegal immigrants. Most impressively,
Chaffetz spent under $100,000 on his race and had no paid campaign
staffers. The final vote: Chaffetz - 60%, Cannon - 40%. Chaffetz
is a safe bet to win this CD-3 seat in November. Cannon is the
third US House member this year to lose a primay for renomination.
In other Utah news, a new Rasmussen reports poll shows Governor
Huntsman leading businessman Bob Springmeyer (D) by a 66% to 19%
Senator Obama, please demonstrate your support for protecting
our civil liberties by supporting Senators Chris Dodd and Russ
Feingold planned filibuster against the so-called FISA "compromise"
(or sell-out, depending upon your perspective). Do not grant immunity
to the telecoms who helped the Bush Administration unlawfully
spy on millions of law-abiding Americans by allowing federal agents
to secretly listen to phone calls without obtaining any warrants.
And -- one other aside -- House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD)
was the key player who helped broker this sell-out deal with the
Republicans, thus proving he is not fit to ever be Speaker. Anyone
who is willing to so readily cast aside our constitutional protections
simply to broker a politics-as-usual deal doesn't have the values
we need in the Speaker's chair.
by Ron Gunzburger - 06.26.08 | Permalink
OPENS WIDE NATIONAL LEAD; PELOSI'S VEEP PICK; INDIANA GUV POLL.
The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg national poll shows Barack
Obama leading John McCain by a lopsided vote of 48% to 33%, with
7% split between Bob Barr (Libertarian) and Ralph Nader (Independent).
In a two-way race, the poll shows Obama leading McCain by a 12-point
margin. These numbers seemingly confirm the Newsweek poll of a
few days ago, which was initially seen as a possible outlier.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said Tuesday that Barack Obama's
VP consideration list should include at least one US House member.
Speaking to Newsweek, Pelosi said Congressman "Chet Edwards
(D-TX) is a person many of us think would be a good person to
have in the [VP] mix." Edwards told The Hill he
was "humbled" by Pelosi's suggestion, but hadn't yet
spoken to anyone in the Obama campaign about the idea. He added
that anyone would "consider it an honor to serve our country
as Vice President."
are the latest independent polls from swing states:
INDIANA (SurveyUSA): McCain
- 48%, Obama - 47%.
MICHIGAN (PPP-D): Obama
- 48%, McCain - 39%.
A new SurveyUSA poll shows Governor Mitch Daniels (R) leading
former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson (D) by a vote of 50% to
by Ron Gunzburger - 06.25.08 | Permalink
DENOUNCES OWN STRATEGISTS REMARKS; REP CANNON FACES UTAH PRIMARY;
GOV OTTER THREATENS IDAHO CONGRESSMAN; NEW HILL-SODREL REMATCH
John McCain quickly distanced himself on Monday from remarks by
his senior strategist Charlie Black. In an interview with Fortune
magazine, Black said a new terrorist attack on the United States
"certainly would be a big advantage" for McCain's campaign.
Black also said the December assassination in Pakistan on Benazir
Bhutto "helped us." Replied McCain: "If he said
that -- and I don't know the context -- I strenuously disagree."
Within hours, Black issued an apology: "I deeply regret the
comments. They were inappropriate." In other news, Barack
Obama and Hillary Clinton will hold their first joint unity appearance
in -- of all places -- Unity, New Hampshire, a town in which they
evenly split the vote in the primary. Also, here are the latest
independent polls from swing states:
NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen):
Obama - 47%, McCain - 39%.
OREGON (SurveyUSA): Obama
- 48%, McCain - 45%.
Obama - 46%, McCain - 42%.
Tuesday is primary day in Utah, but the only primary of note is
the GOP race in CD-3. Congressman Chris Cannon (R) -- a perennial
primary target -- yet again faces another stiff contest. Cannon
is being challenged by former gubernatorial chief of staff and
marketing executive Jason Chaffetz, who was also a BYU college
football player. A Deseret News poll this week shows
Cannon narrowly leading by a vote of 44% to 40%. Chaffetz attacks
Cannon as insufficiently liberal, while Cannon responds that he
is a reliable conservative vote in Congress. The winner of the
GOP primary is a safe bet to win in November.
Governor Butch Otter (R) is hinting he may work behind the scenes
to defeat bombastic freshman Congressman Bill Sali (R) in November.
Otter is upset that Sali backed a candidate against Otter's preferred
choice for State Republican Chair. Otter's candidate lost, setting
off a new round of open warfare between the two men who have never
been close. When the Idaho Statesman asked Otter -- who
formerly held the CD-1 seat -- if he was planning to get even
with Sali, Otter responded by email: "Wait and see."
Sali is facing an aggressive challenge from wealthy businessman
Walt Minnick (D).
A new SurveyUSA poll shows Congressman Baron Hill (D) looking
well positioned to win re-election in CD-9. The numbers: Hill
- 51%, former Congressman Mike Sodrel (R) - 40%, college professor
Eric Schansberg (Libertarian) - 4%.
by Ron Gunzburger - 06.24.08 | Permalink
STATE POLLS; LIBERTARIAN PARTY RIFTS; NRCC LOSES CANDIDATES IN
INDIANA & NY.
During May, both Barack Obama and John McCain each raised $22
million apiece. Also, we have a batch of new independent polls
released over the past few days from some swing states:
Obama - 53%, McCain - 41%.
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): McCain
- 47%, Obama - 39%.
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac Univ.):
Obama - 47%, McCain - 43%.
GEORGIA (Insider Advantage):
McCain - 44%, Obama - 43%, Bob Barr (Libertarian) - 6%.
NEVADA (Rasmussen): McCain
- 45%, Obama - 42%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Rasmussen):
Obama - 50%, McCain - 39%.
OHIO (Quinnipiac Univ.):
Obama - 48%, McCain - 42%.
Univ.): Obama - 52%, McCain - 40%.
Obama - 55%, McCain - 40%.
PARTY. The schism caused the ongoing moderate-versus-hardcore
libertarian wings continues, and now is manifesting itself related
to the LP's Presidential nomination of former GOP Congressman
Bob Barr of Georgia. In New Hampshire, the NHLP is placing college
professor George Phillies onto the ballot as the Libertarian candidate
for President. Phillies, a leader of the LP "reform"
movement of moderates, lost to Barr for the LP nomination. Meanwhile,
the Boston Tea Party
-- which was created two years ago following a bitter rift at
the 2006 LP national convention when the party's platform and
statement of principles was modified -- has nominated a rival
ticket. The BTP nominated Charles Jay for President and Tom Knapp
for VP. Jay, a pro boxing publicist, was the Personal Choice Party
nominee for President in 2004. Knapp is a frequent LP nominee
for office in Missouri. The BTP ticket hopes to qualify for the
ballot in Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, New Jersey, Tennessee
State Representative Jon Elrod (R) has ended his challenge to
freshman Congressman Andre Carson (D), who won the special election
earlier this year. Elrod called his run for the CD-7 seat a "longshot
race" -- according to the Indiana Star -- as said
he intends to instead jump back into the race for his State House
seat. The party may now select a replacement for Elrod in the
Congressional race, but Carson now must move into the safe category.
"I take no pleasure in walking away from a fight, but two
elections have passed, and the voters have chosen a victor,"
said Elrod, referring to the special election and Carson's subsequent
primary win last month.
YORK. More sad and politically frustrating news for the
NRCC. Wealthy retired Wall Street executive Frank Powers, 67 --
the Republican Party's officially endorsed candidate for the seat
being vacated by retiring Congressman Vito Fossella (R) -- died
in his sleep on Sunday. Powers had been unanimously endorsed by
the Staten Island Republican Party just a month ago after he promised
to largely self-finance his own campaign. With Powers gone, the
NRCC appears much less likely to field a first-tier for the seat.
New York City Councilman Mike McMahon is the likely Democratic
nominee for the open CD-13 swing seat.
by Ron Gunzburger - 06.23.08 | Permalink
is busy switching over everything from this old laptop to his
new laptop ... which takes lots of time ... so the next update
will be on Monday. Sorry for any inconvenience.
by Ron Gunzburger - 06.19.08 | Permalink
WANTS MORE OFF-SHORE DRILLING; SWING STATE POLLS; LOTS OF US SENATE
POLLS; AND THE PROHIBITION NOMINEE EXPLAINS HOMOSEXUALITY CAUSES,
McCain is taking a very risky stance calling for expanded off-shore
oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and off the California coast
-- as even Republicans in both those states almost universally
oppose drilling. In Florida, for example, Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist,
and the GOP Congressional members all strongly oppose any offshore
drilling along Florida's Gulf coast. Supporting off-shore drilling
in Florida is seen as an political topic so toxic that Sunshine
State candidates are afraid to even discuss the possibility. GOP
activists in Florida are already worried McCain's new position
could cause problem in Florida, which McCain needs to carry if
he is to have any chance at scoring an electoral victory. Also,
Several new independent polls today from some swing states:
McCain - 53%, Obama - 41%.
Obama - 47%, McCain - 46%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas/TelOpinion-R):
McCain - 45%, Obama - 41%.
OHIO (Public Policy Polling):
Obama - 50%, McCain - 39%.
Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%.
SENATE. Here are a several new US Senate polls:
ALASKA (Rasmussen): US
Senator Ted Stevens (R) - 46%, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D)
IOWA (Rasmussen): US Senator
Tom Harkin (D) - 53%, businessman Chris Reed (R) - 37%.
KANSAS (Rasmussen): US
Senator Pat Roberts (R) - 48%, former Congressman Jim Slattery
(D) - 39%.
US Senator Mitch McConnell (R) - 50%, businessman Bruce Lunsford
(D) - 46%.
US Senator Carl Levin (D) - 55%, State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R)
US Senator Norm Coleman (R) - 48%, humorist Al Franken (D) - 45%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen):
US Senator Elizabeth Dole - 53%, State Senator Kay Hagan (D) -
US Senator Jim Inhofe - 53%, State Senator Andrew Rice (D) - 31%.
OREGON (Rasmussen): US
Senator Gordon Smith (R) - 47%, State House Speaker Jeff Merkley
(D) - 38%.
Former Governor Mark Warner (D) - 60%, former Governor Jim Gilmore
(R) - 33%.
PARTY. Just when you think the Prohibition Party is only good
for comic relief ... they go and prove you right. Prohibition
Presidential nominee and pastor Gene
Amondson was a guest this week on The
Weekly Filibuster political radio program in Maine and
he offered rather, umm, unusual views on several topics. Here
are his comments on what causes homosexuality and the sexual molestation
of children: "I had a professor in college that said that
the rising of homosexuality really came when our diets were changed,
when they took out vitamin E, which was found in whole grains
and real butter. You can change the diets of rats and remove vitamin
E from them and rats can become homosexual. So, our diets need
-- if you got kids, feed them whole grains, feed 'em real butter,
none of this margarin -- [and] when I used to go home as a kid
in college, I'd say to my folks, 'Pass the...pass the homo-margarin.'
Well my dad didn't think that was funny -- but our diets need
to be right and if we ... keep having drunk moms and dads...drunk
dads molesting their children, that's where this homosexuality
comes around a lot." Want to know what ruined morality, families
and women? "Now see the Devil woke up and said 'How can I
ruin America,' he says 'this is what I'll do, I'll go to the Catholic
churches and the Protestant churches and I'll get all these women
that used to do things like fight alcohol and I'll get them into
Bible studies and they'll learn scripture, and scripture and they'll
forget about fighting alcohol that hurts our children,'"
explained Amondson. Yup ... everything went to hell in
America when we started using margarine and women started reading
the Bible for themselves instead on trusting their husbands to
tell them what they needed to know.
by Ron Gunzburger - 06.18.08 | Permalink
ENDORSES OBAMA; McCAIN, OBAMA CLOSE IN NEVADA; MARYLAND CD-4 SPECIAL
Monday was a rather light day on the Presidential front. Former
Vice President Al Gore endorsed Barack Obama at a prime time rally
in Michigan. Gore vowed to campaign actively for Obama in the
general election. A new Mason-Dixon/Las Vegas Review Journal
poll shows John McCain leading Obama by a 44% to 42% vote in Nevada.
Voters on Tuesday will select a replacement for former Congressman
Al Wynn (D) in a very low-key special election. Progressive attorney
Donna Edwards (D), who trounced Wynn in the February primary in
CD-4, will win in a landslide over Ron Paul campaign activist
Peter James (R). Wynn resigned his seat after his renomination
defeat to immediately accept a lucrative lobbying job.
by Ron Gunzburger - 06.17.08 | Permalink
BLACK CONSERVATIVES CONSIDER OBAMA; INDICTED LA. CONGRESSMAN DRAWS
PRIMARY FOES; MONTANA SILLY SEASON; OK STATE AUDITOR CONVICTED.
On the GOP side, John McCain' joked Friday he's been using Google
to research his possible runningmates. Also, former House Speaker
Newt Gingrich said on CBS's Meet the Press that Louisiana
Bobby Jindal is "far and away the best candidate" for
VP. On the Dem side, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner has
taken himself out of consideration. Speaking to the Virginia Democrat
Convention this weekend, Warner told the delegates he was "110%
committed" to staying in the open race to replace retiring
US Senator John Warner (R). "Let me be clear about this:
I have been working very hard these last few months to ask the
people of Virginia to give me the honor of being their United
States Senator. I will not seek, and I will not accept, any other
opportunity," said Warner, according to the Washington
Post. Of course, with Warner out of the mix, two more Virginians
seem to remain under consideration: Governor Tim Kaine and US
Senator Jim Webb.
- GOP. Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) said he this weekend he
will not endorse John McCain for President, reported the Los
Angeles Times. Paul says he still strongly disagrees with
McCain's stance on the Iraq War.
- DEM. According to the AP, several prominent black conservatives
say they may vote for Barack Obama in November. Conservative talk
show host Armstrong Williams -- who says he has never voted for
any Democrat -- said "for the first time in my life, history
thrusts me to really seriously think about it. I can honestly
say I have no idea who I'm going to pull that lever for in November.
" Former Congressman J.C. Watts (R-OK), once a member of
the House GOP leadership, said he is also considering voting for
Obama. Watts said the Republican Party regularly "neglects"
the black community while the Democrats regularly "reaches
out" to black voters. Watts explained he may cast his vote
for Obama because he expects Obama will seriously address issues
such as poverty and urban policy while "Republicans often
seem indifferent to those things."
CLOSE. Primary candidate filing closed on Friday in Kansas
and New Hampshire. Click on the state names
to view the respective race filings.
Jefferson (D) -- who remains under indictment on federal corruption
charges -- has drawn two new primary rivals in recent days. State
Representative Cedric Richmond and Jefferson Parish Councilman
Byron Lee both announced their candidacies for the CD-2 over the
past week. The Louisiana Democratic Party broke with Jefferson
over the corruption issue during the 2006 race, backing his unsuccessful
Dem primary opponent.
Perennial candidate Bob Kelleher, who earlier this month won the
GOP primary for US Senate in an upset, has announced he supports
abolishing the Presidency and Congress in favor of a Prime Minister
and parliament. That prompted former State House Majority Leader
Mike Lange (R) -- who lost the primary to Kelleher -- to jump
back into the race as a write-in candidate for the general election.
US Senator Max Baucus (D) is a safe bet to score an easy win over
the two challengers.
State Auditor Jeff McMahan (D) and his wife were convicted on
three federal felony corruption and bribery charges on Saturday,
related to McMahan's past campaigns. Jurors found that the McMahans
knowingly accepted illegal campaign contributions, jewelry and
trips from businessman Steve Phipps. In return, McMahan -- with
his wife's help -- allegedly provided favors for Phipps' business.
The couple was acquitted on five other felony charges. Both of
the McMahans are likely to receive prison sentences -- with Jeff
receiving a longer sentence -- under federal sentencing guidelines
for political corruption cases. "In light of the guilty verdict,
I believe he should resign his office immediately so the state
of Oklahoma can move forward under the leadership of a new State
Auditor," said Governor Brad Henry (D). State House Speaker
Chris Benge (R) said he will quickly initiate impeachment proceedings
if McMahan doesn't resign in the coming days.
by Ron Gunzburger - 06.16.08 | Permalink