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| BLOG ARCHIVE: JUNE 16-30, 2008.
OBAMA PLANS TRIP ABROAD; LATEST POLLS; GOP LEADER BLEAK ON SENATE RACES; R.I. FILING CLOSES. P2008.
Barack Obama announced he will travel to Iraq, Israel, Jordan,
and Europe this summer to meet with various heads of state. Meanwhile,
here are the latest independent polls from swing states: US SENATE. "We are not going to be back in the majority in the Senate next year. The numbers make that impossible ... I'm optimistic we can stay roughly where we are," said US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) on Sunday to CNN. McConnell is one of the GOP incumbents the Dems are targeting for defeat this year. GEORGIA. US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) holds comfortable leads over all of his Democatic challengers, according to a new Rasmussen poll. Depending on the challenger, Chambliss leads by margins ranging from 13-27 points. In all matchups, Chambliss hovers a few points above the 50% mark. The closest contest: Chambliss - 52%, former State Representative Jim Martin - 39%. RHODE
ISLAND. Filing closed in Rhode Island
last week, leaving all three federal incumbents safe. US Senator
Jack Reed (D) faces two gadfly primary opponents in September,
then is expected to roll to a landslide victory in November over
casino worker Bob Tingle (R). Congressmen Patrick Kennedy (D)
and Jim Langevin (D) both drew minor general election challengers. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Have at it. LOTS OF NEW PREZ SWING STATE & US SENATE POLLS. P2008.
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton US
SENATE. Some new polls ... SWING STATE POLLS; JOHANNS WIDENS LEAD; CHAFFETZ OUSTS REP CANNON ... AND AN EDITORIAL AGAINST HOYER'S FISA COMPROMISE. P2008.
No surprise, but the AFL-CIO is finally set to endorsed Barack
Obama on Thursday. Meanwhile, here are the latest independent
polls from swing states:
UTAH. Jason Chaffetz (R) -- former Chief of Staff to Governor Jon Huntsman (R) -- scored a landslide primary victory Tuesday over Congressman Chris Cannon (R). Until election day, polls showed the two men locked in a close race. Chaffetz successfully attacked Cannon as a supporter of asylum for illegal immigrants. Most impressively, Chaffetz spent under $100,000 on his race and had no paid campaign staffers. The final vote: Chaffetz - 60%, Cannon - 40%. Chaffetz is a safe bet to win this CD-3 seat in November. Cannon is the third US House member this year to lose a primay for renomination. In other Utah news, a new Rasmussen reports poll shows Governor Huntsman leading businessman Bob Springmeyer (D) by a 66% to 19% vote. EDITORIAL.
Senator Obama, please demonstrate your support for protecting
our civil liberties by supporting Senators Chris Dodd and Russ
Feingold planned filibuster against the so-called FISA "compromise"
(or sell-out, depending upon your perspective). Do not grant immunity
to the telecoms who helped the Bush Administration unlawfully
spy on millions of law-abiding Americans by allowing federal agents
to secretly listen to phone calls without obtaining any warrants.
And -- one other aside -- House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD)
was the key player who helped broker this sell-out deal with the
Republicans, thus proving he is not fit to ever be Speaker. Anyone
who is willing to so readily cast aside our constitutional protections
simply to broker a politics-as-usual deal doesn't have the values
we need in the Speaker's chair. OBAMA OPENS WIDE NATIONAL LEAD; PELOSI'S VEEP PICK; INDIANA GUV POLL. P2008. The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg national poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by a lopsided vote of 48% to 33%, with 7% split between Bob Barr (Libertarian) and Ralph Nader (Independent). In a two-way race, the poll shows Obama leading McCain by a 12-point margin. These numbers seemingly confirm the Newsweek poll of a few days ago, which was initially seen as a possible outlier.
Here
are the latest independent polls from swing states: INDIANA.
A new SurveyUSA poll shows Governor Mitch Daniels (R) leading
former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson (D) by a vote of 50% to
45%. McCAIN DENOUNCES OWN STRATEGISTS REMARKS; REP CANNON FACES UTAH PRIMARY; GOV OTTER THREATENS IDAHO CONGRESSMAN; NEW HILL-SODREL REMATCH POLL. P2008.
John McCain quickly distanced himself on Monday from remarks by
his senior strategist Charlie Black. In an interview with Fortune
magazine, Black said a new terrorist attack on the United States
"certainly would be a big advantage" for McCain's campaign.
Black also said the December assassination in Pakistan on Benazir
Bhutto "helped us." Replied McCain: "If he said
that -- and I don't know the context -- I strenuously disagree."
Within hours, Black issued an apology: "I deeply regret the
comments. They were inappropriate." In other news, Barack
Obama and Hillary Clinton will hold their first joint unity appearance
in -- of all places -- Unity, New Hampshire, a town in which they
evenly split the vote in the primary. Also, here are the latest
independent polls from swing states:
IDAHO. Governor Butch Otter (R) is hinting he may work behind the scenes to defeat bombastic freshman Congressman Bill Sali (R) in November. Otter is upset that Sali backed a candidate against Otter's preferred choice for State Republican Chair. Otter's candidate lost, setting off a new round of open warfare between the two men who have never been close. When the Idaho Statesman asked Otter -- who formerly held the CD-1 seat -- if he was planning to get even with Sali, Otter responded by email: "Wait and see." Sali is facing an aggressive challenge from wealthy businessman Walt Minnick (D). INDIANA.
A new SurveyUSA poll shows Congressman Baron Hill (D) looking
well positioned to win re-election in CD-9. The numbers: Hill
- 51%, former Congressman Mike Sodrel (R) - 40%, college professor
Eric Schansberg (Libertarian) - 4%. SWING STATE POLLS; LIBERTARIAN PARTY RIFTS; NRCC LOSES CANDIDATES IN INDIANA & NY.
LIBERTARIAN PARTY. The schism caused the ongoing moderate-versus-hardcore libertarian wings continues, and now is manifesting itself related to the LP's Presidential nomination of former GOP Congressman Bob Barr of Georgia. In New Hampshire, the NHLP is placing college professor George Phillies onto the ballot as the Libertarian candidate for President. Phillies, a leader of the LP "reform" movement of moderates, lost to Barr for the LP nomination. Meanwhile, the Boston Tea Party -- which was created two years ago following a bitter rift at the 2006 LP national convention when the party's platform and statement of principles was modified -- has nominated a rival ticket. The BTP nominated Charles Jay for President and Tom Knapp for VP. Jay, a pro boxing publicist, was the Personal Choice Party nominee for President in 2004. Knapp is a frequent LP nominee for office in Missouri. The BTP ticket hopes to qualify for the ballot in Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, New Jersey, Tennessee and Utah. INDIANA. State Representative Jon Elrod (R) has ended his challenge to freshman Congressman Andre Carson (D), who won the special election earlier this year. Elrod called his run for the CD-7 seat a "longshot race" -- according to the Indiana Star -- as said he intends to instead jump back into the race for his State House seat. The party may now select a replacement for Elrod in the Congressional race, but Carson now must move into the safe category. "I take no pleasure in walking away from a fight, but two elections have passed, and the voters have chosen a victor," said Elrod, referring to the special election and Carson's subsequent primary win last month. NEW
YORK. More sad and politically frustrating news for the
NRCC. Wealthy retired Wall Street executive Frank Powers, 67 --
the Republican Party's officially endorsed candidate for the seat
being vacated by retiring Congressman Vito Fossella (R) -- died
in his sleep on Sunday. Powers had been unanimously endorsed by
the Staten Island Republican Party just a month ago after he promised
to largely self-finance his own campaign. With Powers gone, the
NRCC appears much less likely to field a first-tier for the seat.
New York City Councilman Mike McMahon is the likely Democratic
nominee for the open CD-13 swing seat. COMPUTER UPDATE TIME. Ron
is busy switching over everything from this old laptop to his
new laptop ... which takes lots of time ... so the next update
will be on Monday. Sorry for any inconvenience. McCAIN WANTS MORE OFF-SHORE DRILLING; SWING STATE POLLS; LOTS OF US SENATE POLLS; AND THE PROHIBITION NOMINEE EXPLAINS HOMOSEXUALITY CAUSES, WOMEN'S RIGHTS. P2008.
US
SENATE. Here are a several new US Senate PROHIBITION
PARTY. Just when you think the Prohibition Party is only good
for comic relief ... they go and prove you right. Prohibition
Presidential nominee and pastor GORE
ENDORSES OBAMA; McCAIN, OBAMA CLOSE IN NEVADA; MARYLAND CD-4 SPECIAL
ON TUESDAY. P2008. Monday was a rather light day on the Presidential front. Former Vice President Al Gore endorsed Barack Obama at a prime time rally in Michigan. Gore vowed to campaign actively for Obama in the general election. A new Mason-Dixon/Las Vegas Review Journal poll shows John McCain leading Obama by a 44% to 42% vote in Nevada. MARYLAND.
Voters on Tuesday will select a replacement for former Congressman
Al Wynn (D) in a very low-key special election. Progressive attorney
Donna Edwards (D), who trounced Wynn in the February primary in
CD-4, will win in a landslide over Ron Paul campaign activist
Peter James (R). Wynn resigned his seat after his renomination
defeat to immediately accept a lucrative lobbying job. VEEPSTAKES; BLACK CONSERVATIVES CONSIDER OBAMA; INDICTED LA. CONGRESSMAN DRAWS PRIMARY FOES; MONTANA SILLY SEASON; OK STATE AUDITOR CONVICTED. VEEPSTAKES.
On the GOP side, John McCain' joked Friday he's been using Google
to research his possible runningmates. Also, former House Speaker
Newt Gingrich said on CBS's Meet the Press that Louisiana
P2008 - GOP. Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) said he this weekend he will not endorse John McCain for President, reported the Los Angeles Times. Paul says he still strongly disagrees with McCain's stance on the Iraq War. P2008 - DEM. According to the AP, several prominent black conservatives say they may vote for Barack Obama in November. Conservative talk show host Armstrong Williams -- who says he has never voted for any Democrat -- said "for the first time in my life, history thrusts me to really seriously think about it. I can honestly say I have no idea who I'm going to pull that lever for in November. " Former Congressman J.C. Watts (R-OK), once a member of the House GOP leadership, said he is also considering voting for Obama. Watts said the Republican Party regularly "neglects" the black community while the Democrats regularly "reaches out" to black voters. Watts explained he may cast his vote for Obama because he expects Obama will seriously address issues such as poverty and urban policy while "Republicans often seem indifferent to those things." FILINGS CLOSE. Primary candidate filing closed on Friday in Kansas and New Hampshire. Click on the state names to view the respective race filings. LOUISIANA.
Congressman MONTANA. Perennial candidate Bob Kelleher, who earlier this month won the GOP primary for US Senate in an upset, has announced he supports abolishing the Presidency and Congress in favor of a Prime Minister and parliament. That prompted former State House Majority Leader Mike Lange (R) -- who lost the primary to Kelleher -- to jump back into the race as a write-in candidate for the general election. US Senator Max Baucus (D) is a safe bet to score an easy win over the two challengers. OKLAHOMA.
State Auditor Jeff McMahan (D) and his wife were convicted on
three federal felony corruption and bribery charges on Saturday,
related to McMahan's past campaigns. Jurors found that the McMahans
knowingly accepted illegal campaign contributions, jewelry and
trips from businessman Steve Phipps. In return, McMahan -- with
his wife's help -- allegedly provided favors for Phipps' business.
The couple was acquitted on five other felony charges. Both of
the McMahans are likely to receive prison sentences -- with Jeff
receiving a longer sentence -- under federal sentencing guidelines
for political corruption cases. "In light of the guilty verdict,
I believe he should resign his office immediately so the state
of Oklahoma can move forward under the leadership of a new State
Auditor," said Governor Brad Henry (D). State House Speaker
Chris Benge (R) said he will quickly initiate impeachment proceedings
if McMahan doesn't resign in the coming days. |
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hold
their first unity event on Friday in -- fittingly -- Unity, New
Hampshire. Also, conservative columnist Robert Novak reports that
former Secretary of State Colin Powell is poised to break with
GOP and endorse Obama for President some time this summer. Meanwhile,
here are the latest independent polls from swing states:
NEBRASKA.
According to a new Rasmussem survey, former Governor Mike Johanns
(R) now leads rancher Scott Kleeb (D) by a wide margin of 60%
to 33% in the open US Senate race. Johanns has widened his lead
by 12-points since last month's poll.
Meanwhile,
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said Tuesday that Barack Obama's
VP consideration list should include at least one US House member.
Speaking to Newsweek, Pelosi said Congressman "Chet Edwards
(D-TX) is a person many of us think would be a good person to
have in the [VP] mix." Edwards told The Hill he
was "humbled" by Pelosi's suggestion, but hadn't yet
spoken to anyone in the Obama campaign about the idea. He added
that anyone would "consider it an honor to serve our country
as Vice President." 
UTAH.
Tuesday is primary day in Utah, but the only primary of note is
the GOP race in CD-3. Congressman Chris Cannon (R) -- a perennial
primary target -- yet again faces another stiff contest. Cannon
is being challenged by former gubernatorial chief of staff and
marketing executive Jason Chaffetz, who was also a BYU college
football player. A Deseret News poll this week shows
Cannon narrowly leading by a vote of 44% to 40%. Chaffetz attacks
Cannon as insufficiently liberal, while Cannon responds that he
is a reliable conservative vote in Congress. The winner of the
GOP primary is a safe bet to win in November.
John
McCain is taking a very risky stance calling for expanded off-shore
oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and off the California coast
-- as even Republicans in both those states almost universally
oppose drilling. In Florida, for example, Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist,
and the GOP Congressional members all strongly oppose any offshore
drilling along Florida's Gulf coast. Supporting off-shore drilling
in Florida is seen as an political topic so toxic that Sunshine
State candidates are afraid to even discuss the possibility. GOP
activists in Florida are already worried McCain's new position
could cause problem in Florida, which McCain needs to carry if
he is to have any chance at scoring an electoral victory. Also,
Several new independent polls today from some swing states:
polls:
Gene
Amondson was a guest this week on 
Governor
Bobby Jindal is "far and away the best candidate" for
VP. On the Dem side, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner has
taken himself out of consideration. Speaking to the Virginia Democrat
Convention this weekend, Warner told the delegates he was "110%
committed" to staying in the open race to replace retiring
US Senator John Warner (R). "Let me be clear about this:
I have been working very hard these last few months to ask the
people of Virginia to give me the honor of being their United
States Senator. I will not seek, and I will not accept, any other
opportunity," said Warner, according to the Washington
Post. Of course, with Warner out of the mix, two more Virginians
seem to remain under consideration: Governor Tim Kaine and US
Senator Jim Webb.
Bill
Jefferson (D) -- who remains under indictment on federal corruption
charges -- has drawn two new primary rivals in recent days. State
Representative Cedric Richmond and Jefferson Parish Councilman
Byron Lee both announced their candidacies for the CD-2 over the
past week. The Louisiana Democratic Party broke with Jefferson
over the corruption issue during the 2006 race, backing his unsuccessful
Dem primary opponent.
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