SUNUNU
SINKS; GRANITE (STATE) SHIFTS; IMMIGRATION REFORM DIES; STUPID
CANDIDATE TRICKS IN MN. NEW HAMPSHIRE #1: A new American Research Group poll shows
US Senator John Sununu (R) is potentially in big trouble next
year. In a match-up against former
Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), she leads the incumbent by a 57%
to 29% vote. Sununu defeated Shaheen by a narrow margin for the
seat in 2002. NEW HAMPSHIRE #2:
Governor John Lynch (D) signed a law this week that gives Secretary
of State Bill Gardner virtually unfettered discretion to set the
state's Presidential primary date, along with the candidate filing
period, absentee ballot mailing date, and so on. The move is intended
to enable the Granite State to outmaneuver all other states to
maintain the state's first-in-the-nation status for the Presidential
primary. This mean the NH primary could be in November is Gardner
wants -- but look for him to keep it in the early January period
barring unforeseen moves by states he sees as encroaching on their
coveted status (i.e., like my homestate of Florida). IMMIGRATION
REFORM: The Kennedy-McCain immigration reform bill -- strongly
backed by the Bush Administration -- died in the US Senate on
Thursday. The latest compromise version of the bill, back
yet again from the political grave just days ago, died by a fourteen
vote margin after 6 Democrats and twelve Republicans changed their
votes from earlier this week to oppose the bill on Thursday's
vote. US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Presidential
candidate Sam Brownback (R-KS) were among those who switched sides.
Observers agree the issue is now dead in Congress until after
the 2008 elections. President Bush announced himself "disappointed"
in the outcome. The immigration issue is largely viewed as the
cause of of Senator John McCain (R-AZ) seeing his campaign tank
into the single-digits and second-tier status in recent weeks.
MINNESOTA: In the category of stupid candidate tricks,
meet gadfly hopeful James D. McBroom (Independence-MN). McBroom
just legally changed his name to "James Broom Wellstone"
and announced his candidacy against US Senator Norm Coleman (R).
The seat was formerly held by the late US Senator Paul Wellstone
(DFL), who died in a plane crash one month before the 2002 election.
And talk about misleading, the guy's new campaign website features
video and pix of Senator Wellsone. This ploy has failed in Minnesota
in the past, when frequent candidate Mary Jane Rachner legally
changed her name to Patricia Reagan to run for Congress yet again
in the 2000 GOP primary. It made no difference, as Reagan/Rachner
lost by the same lopsided margin as she always did. Look for the
strategy to work just as well for McBroom/Wellstone next year.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.29.07 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
The daily open thread.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.29.07 | Permalink
|
THURSDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
ROMNEY,
HILLARY GORE LEAD IN NH; REALLY OLD GOV WEIGHS RETURN;
WY UPDATES. NEW HAMPSHIRE: A new WHDH-TV/Suffolk University
poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters shows Mitt Romney
and Hillary Clinton (or Al Gore) leading in the state. Let's
start with the GOP, because that picture is clearer: Romney -
26%, Rudy Giuliani - 22%, and Fred Thompson and John McCain tied
with 13% each. This represents a 7-point gain for Romney, a 15-point
drop for Giuliani, and a 14-point drop for McCain since the last
WHDH poll. As for the Democrats, Clinton led with 37%, followed
by Barack Obama at 17%, John Edwards and, Bill Richardson tied
with 9% apiece. However, when Gore's name was added to the field,
Gore jumped into the lead. with 32% and Clinton loses a quarter
of her support. Now there's a mischievous poll question for 'ya! LOUISIANA: Former
Governor Dave Treen (R) said he's considering jumping into the
gubernatorial race. Treen, age 78, told BayouBuzz.com that he
likes frontrunner Bobby Jindal (R) "but is not convinced
he can win." WYOMING: Former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis and former
US Attorney Matt Mead -- both Republicans who unsuccessfully sought
the US Senate appointment in Wyoming last week -- said they are
each considering GOP primary challenges next year to newly appointed
US Senator John Barrasso. Lummis said she won't run against Congresswoman
Barbara Cubin (R) because she's a Republican incumbent, but said
Barrasso "is an interim appointment, so that is a different
circumstance." State House Majority Leader Colin Simpson
(R) also sounded like a candidate for federal office next year,
but he's already indicated he prefers to challenge Cubin in her
primary.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.28.07 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
The daily open thread.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.28.07 | Permalink
|
WEDNESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
NEW
IOWA POLL; RICHARDSON FIRST IN CD-37 PRIMARY; GOOD NEWS FOR SENATOR
DOLE. IOWA: A new Strategic
Vision-R poll of likely Iowa caucus participants shows John Edwards
(D) and Mitt Romney (R) currently leading in the state.
The Dems: Edwards - 26%, Barack Obama - 21%, Hillary Clinton -
20%, Bill Richardson - 11%, Joe Biden - 4%, Chris Dodd - 2%, Dennis
Kucinich - 1%. The GOP: Romney - 23%, Fred Thompson - 17%, Rudy
Giuliani - 14%, John McCain - 10%, Tommy Thompson - 6%, Mike Huckabee
- 5%, Newt Gingrich - 4%, Sam Brownback - 3%, Ron Paul and Tom
Tancredo tied with 2% each, and Chuck Hagel, Duncan Hunter and
Jim Gilmore tied with 1% apiece. The same poll also showed Iowa
Republicans favor a "withdrawal of all US military from Iraq
within the next six months" by a margin of 56%-38%. Dems
favored the same stance by a more lopsided 83%-6% margin. CALIFORNIA: Voters
went to the polls on Tuesday in the CD-37 special election to
replace the late Congresswoman Juanita Millender-McDonald (D),
advancing candidates to the August 21 run-off. Seventeen candidates
ran in the open primary, with the top finishers for each party
moving forward as no one candidate won a majority of the vote
to score an outright victory. The real fight in this minority
district was between State Senator Jenny Oropeza (D), a Latina,
and State Assemblywoman Laura Richardson (D), a black. Oropeza
hoped for a large enough split in the black vote between the various
black candidates so as to allow her to place first. However, Richardson
ran an aggressive campaign and defeated Oropeza by a 37% to 31%
vote. The late Congresswoman's daughter Valerie McDonald (D) was
third with 9%. The top GOP candidate, police officer John Kanaley,
was next with 8%. Also advancing to the run-off are social
worker Daniel Brezenoff (Green) and retired engineer Herb Peters
(Libertarian). Richardson is assured of victory in this safe Dem
seat in the run-off. NORTH CAROLINA: Congressman Brad Miller (D) announced Tuesday
he would not challenge US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) next year,
despite the DSCC courting him to run. He said personal family
considerations mde him decide against running. With Miller out,
the Dems appear to be looking at a group of second tier hopefuls
interested in the seat. The most likely Democratic candidates
appear to be either Afghan War veteran and State Representative
Grier Martin or State Senator Kay Hagan.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.27.07 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
The daily open thread.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.27.07 | Permalink
|
TUESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
WARNER
RETIREMENT LOOMS; CD-37 PREVIEW; PRIMARIED IN ALASKA; FEENEY DEFENDS;
LITMUS TEST. VIRGINIA: The Washington Timesreports
that US Senator John Warner (R) "is giving clear indications
that he will not return for another term and that his coyness
is merely an attempt to help" centrist Congressman Tom Davis
(R) position himself as his successor. Warner's vague response:
"I am seriously considering running again for the Senate
and ... I will announce my decision about the Senate race in September."
If Warner quits, the conservative newspaper said others possibly
interested in challenging Davis for the GOP nomination include
former Governor Jim Gilmore, former State GOP Chair Kate Griffin,
and Congressmen Eric Cantor, Bob Goodlatte and Randy Forbes. Former
US Senator George Allen (R) announced last week he would not run
if the seat comes open next year. Davis' supporters acknowledge
he is a social moderate -- which might not appeal to GOP religious
conservatives -- but that his Northern Virginia base makes him
the most electable Republican candidate in an open seat race.
The newspaper also reports that former Governor Mark Warner is
likely to be the Democratic candidate if Senator Warner retires. CALIFORNIA: Voters
go to the polls on Tuesday to cast ballots in the CD-37 special
election to replace the late Congresswoman Juanita Millender-McDonald
(D). Seventeen candidates are running -- 11 Democrats, 4 Republicans,
a Green and a Libertarian -- and the top candidates from each
party will meet in an August 21 run-off if no one candidate captures
a majority of the vote. State Senator Jenny Oropeza (D), State
Assemblywoman Laura Richardson (D) and the late congresswoman's
daughter Valerie McDonald (D) are viewed as the frontrunners.
Oropeza is believed to hold an edge, but
Richardson has been running a very aggressive campaign in these
closing days. The winner of the Dem primary is sure to win the
run-off in this safe Democratic seat NEVADA: A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Fred Thompson (R)
and Hillary Clinton (D) leading their respective contests among
likely participants in the state's early January 19 caucuses.
The GOP numbers: Thompson - 25%, Mitt Romney - 20%, Rudy
Giuliani - 17%, and John McCain - 8%. The Dem numbers: Clinton
- 39%, Barack Obama - 17%, John Edwards - 12%, and Bill Richardson
- 7%. ALASKA: Roll Call reports former Lieutenant Governor
Loren Leman (R), former State Senate President Mike Miller (R),
former State Senator John Binkley (R) and State House Speaker
John Harris (R) are all "weighing challenging" either
US Senator Ted Stevens (R) or Congressman Don Young (R) in next
year's primary. FLORIDA: Congressman Tom Feeney (R) has launched a legal
defense fund, according to the Orlando Sentinel. Feeney
is seemingly seeking contributions to the fund to help defer his
legal expenses in the criminal investigation of his ties to disgraced
lobbyist and convicted felon Jack Abramoff. Feeney denies he is
the "target of a federal probe" but acknowledged in
FEC filings that he's already spent over $23,000 during 1Q-07
in legal expenses to a DC firm that handles criminal matters. LITMUS
TEST: A few days ago, US Senator Sam Brownback (R) said he's
use an abortion litmus test in selecting US Supreme Court justices
-- saying only one more vote was needed to overturn Roe v.
Wade. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (D) agrees abortion
should be a litmus test, but from the other side of the issue.
"I know that I am going to upset some people. I would say,
'Do you believe Roe v. Wade is settled law?' and if they
say, 'Yes,' they have a good chance of being picked. If they say
'No,' I will not pick them," said Richardson in Des Moines.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.26.07 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
So ... what else is going on today in the world of politics?
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.26.07 | Permalink
|
MONDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
BARRASSO
GETS WY SEN SEAT; CALIF GOP IMPORTS ALIENS; ROMNEY'S MORMON PROBLEM. WYOMING: Governor Dave Freudenthal (D) on Friday appointed
State Senator John
Barrasso (R) to fill the US Senate seat left vacant by the June
4 death of Craig Thomas (R). By state law, the Governor was required
to select one of the three Republican names submitted to him by
the Wyoming GOP. Barrasso, a surgeon, takes office immediately
and will serve until November 2008. Barrasso has already stated
he will be a candidate in the November 2008 special election to
fill the remaining four years of Thomas' term. "I believe
in limited government, lower taxes, less spending, traditional
family values, local control and a strong national defense ...
I have voted for prayer in schools, against gay marriage and have
sponsored legislation to protect the sanctity of life ... I'm
very grateful to the [Republican State] Central Committee, and
I'm very grateful to the Governor," said Barrasso on Friday.
Barrasso lost the 1996 open seat GOP primary for US Senate to
Mike Enzi, before being elected to the State Senate in 2002. He
starts as a strong favorite to hold the seat next year, based
upon the state's GOP voting history. CALIFORNIA: The
California Republican Party finds its own hiring practices subject
to the political debate surrounding the immigration reform issues.
State GOP Chair Ron Nehring hired Michael Kamburowski to be the
party's Chief Operating Officer and hired Christopher Matthews
to be the party's Political Director. Kamburowski is an Australian
immigrant who was ordered deported in 2001, jailed three years
later for visa violations, sold real estate in the Dominican Republic
last year, and has now filed a $5 million wrongful arrest lawsuit
against the US Department of Homeland Security. He recently obtained
his Green Card status in the US. Kamburowski worked several years
ago in DC for a group headed by conservative lobbyist Grover Norquist.
As for Kamburowski's
work last year in the Caribbean, his former boss didn't have much
nice to say about him to the
San Francisco Chronicle: "He didn't rent anything
and he didn't sell anything ... I have no idea what he was doing."
Matthews is a Canadian citizen in the US on an H1B "skilled
worker" visa -- which he obtained due to his job offer from
the state party. "The fact that we have two people on staff
who want to become Americans ... is a great story that is at the
heart of what the Republican Party is all about," responded
Nehring to the newspaper. Some Republican activists are upset
the party did not hire US citizens for the two high-ranking positions. ROMNEY: Subtle -- and less-than-subtle -- damaging
attacks on former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney's Mormon
faith in the past few weeks may finally force Romney to more directly
discuss the LDS Church's beliefs and his view of them. The McCain
and Brownback campaigns were both caught in disseminating anti-Mormon
messages in Iowa. And last week, for example, a prominent Southern
Baptist leader released a statement explaining why he thought
fundamentalist Christians would be unable to support Romney due
to religious beliefs. Romney supporter Ryan Bell -- a Utah attorney
and Mormon -- launched RomneyExperience.com
this month to directly address the attacks. Bell wrote the site
exists to explain "Mitt and Mormonism to an underinformed
world." Since this is becoming a significant issue in the
campaign of this "first tier" GOP White House hopeful
-- one he must soon address at length and directly -- let me take
a moment to recommend a book. Mormons:
History, Culture, Beliefs is a concise, unbiased, richly
illustrated, non-judgmental introduction to the LDS Church and
its beliefs. Interestingly, the book is published by White Horse
Books, one of the only non-LDS publishers in Utah. This one-hour
read will not make you an expert on the Mormons, but it will certainly
make you better informed than 99% of people are on the topic.
Highly informative and recommended.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.25.07 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Nah, nah, nah, nah. Nah, nah, nah, nah. Hey, hey, hey ... goodbye.
Since we asked about the Republican hopefuls last week, let's
speculate now as to which Democratic White House candidate will
be the first to quit the race? Chris Dodd? Joe Biden? Bill Richardson?
My guess: nobody is going anywhere until the Iowa caucuses narrows
the field next January. Unlike the GOP, the Dems have no significant
mid-summer straw poll in Iowa that may force someone from the
race prematurely.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.25.07 | Permalink
|
FRIDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
NADER
RETURNS; DSCC RECRUITS IN NH, NE; TAX GROUP SNUBS PAUL; GOD'S
CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE; KEYES DRAFTS HIMSELF. NADER: Consumer advocate Ralph
Nader (I-CT) is again sounding like a probable White House candidate.
In a series of media interviews on Wednesday and Thursday, the
73-year-old Nader acknowledged he is "seriously thinking"
of making a fifth White House run in 2008. He said 2008 looks
to be another "Tweedledum-Tweedledee election that offers
little real choice to voters." Nader offered some mild praise
for NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg's possible Indy run -- saying it
could help ease ballot and debate access for other Independents
as well -- and said Bloomberg "is interesting, unpredictable.
I really like the stand he took against smoking, but he goes along
with corporate welfare in New York and tax-funded stadiums. So
he is unfinished in that way." Nader told The Politico
Hillary Clinton as "a political coward ... [who] goes around
pandering to powerful interest groups on the one hand and flattering
general audiences on the other. She doesn't even have the minimal
political fortitude of her husband." As for candidates he
respects, he named two: Ron Paul (R) and Mike Gravel (D). Nader
said his biggest obstacle to running again was simply putting
together enough volunteers and pro bono lawyers to win him ballot
access in enough states. US SENATE: According
to the Rothenberg Political Report, it now appears the
DSCC is succeeding in efforts to recruit former Governor Jeanne
Shaheen (D-NH) and former US Senator Bob Kerrey (D-NE) into US
Senate races next year. Rothenberg said Shaheen is now "likely"
to run and Kerrey is "inching toward entering"
the race. Kerrey has recently done polling in the state and is
already speaking at Democratic events in Nebraska. Score two major
coups for the DSCC, as this would seriously place the NH and NE
seats into play if both Shaheen and Kerrey run. US Senator John
Sununu (R-NH) is seeking re-election, while US Senator Chuck Hagel
(R-NE) seems unlikely to run again. PAUL: In an unfair
move, Iowans for Tax Relief have decided to exclude Congressman
Ron Paul from their GOP Presidential forum next week in Des Moines.
Ed Failor Jr., VP of the group, offered the weak excuse
that they did not invite Paul because he was not a "credible"
candidate. Paul does not yet have an Iowa HQ, although his campaign
is currently trying to fill two full-time staff positions in the
state. The group, however, invited second tier hopefuls Mike Huckabee,
Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, and Tom Tancredo.
If there is one issue upon which Paul -- "Dr. No" --
has been most vocal during his many years in Congress, it is his
strident opposition to any and all taxes. To denounce Paul as
a non-credible candidate while inviting Hunter, Tancredo and Tommy
Thompson -- all generally tied with him in the polls -- smacks
of disingenuousness on behalf of the group's leadership. Shame
on them. MARYLAND: Former Cumberland Mayor Frank Nethken (R) announced
his primary challenge this week against Congressman Roscoe Bartlett
(R). Sounding a very conservative note, Nethken said fighting
illegal immigration is his top concern and he sees himself as
a conservative in the mold of Ronald Reagan and Jesse Helms. Where
Nethken probably lost all credibility is when he told the Hagerstown
Daily-Mail why he decided to challenge Bartlett: "God
told me I'm going to be the next Congressman." He also told
the newspaper he very much respected Joe Lieberman. "I love
a good Jew," he added. KEYES:Not
that there aren't already a large pack of second tier White House
hopefuls fighting for attention, but it now appears former Ambassador
Alan Keyes (R-MD) is readying to enter the race. Check out alankeyes.com
-- a site which Keyes has controlled for many years and which
is owned by Alan Keyes Enterprises, Inc. The website disclaimer
said it is paid for by "We Need Alan Keyes for President,
Inc." The group is described on the site as "a political
action committee organized according to rules established by the
FEC ... [and] not managed by Alan Keyes, but rather is an organization
designed to determine and rally support for a presidential candidacy
by Dr. Keyes, should he choose to run." Yup, Alan Keyes is
drafting Alan Keyes to run for President. To date, the bombastic
Keyes has lost two GOP nomination runs for President and three
very lopsided bids for the US Senate.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.22.07 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Nah, nah, nah, nah. Nah, nah, nah, nah. Hey, hey, hey ... goodbye.
Just musing here, but who do you think will be the first GOP White
House candidate to quit the race? Jim Gilmore, Tom Tancredo, Tommy
Thompson, John McCain? Name your choice for the most likely first
casualty. My guess -- pure speculation -- is Thompson or McCain.
(Yes, we'll ask about the Dem hopefuls next week.)
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.22.07 | Permalink
|
THURSDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
LIBS
LOVE OBAMA, EDWARDS; STEVENS LAWYERS UP; HILLARY & RUDY ENJOY
THE SUNSHINE; ARNOLD LOVES MIKE. P2008: The Democratic White House hopefuls
all made appearances at the Take Back America conference on Wednesday,
a large national gathring of liberal activists. Senator Hillary
Clinton -- who attended the event despite warning the crowd was
hostile to her candidacy because of her refusal to apologize for
her vote in favor of the Iraq War -- was booed by the crowd when
she made remarks praising the US military. The Politico
sponsored a straw poll of attendees, and 720 participated. Senator
Barack Obama placed first with 29%, followed closely by John Edwards
with 26%. Clinton was third with 17%, followed by Bill Richardson
at 9%, write-in non-candidate Al Gore at 8%, Dennis Kucinich at
5%, and all others with 1% or less apiece. Dem pollster Stan Greenberg,
who conducted the survey, said the results confirmed yet again
that Obama and Edwards are the favorite of the party's progressive
base. FYI: Some attendees at the convo loudly heckled House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for not doing enough to oppose the Iraq War. ALASKA: According to The Politico, US Senator Ted
Stevens (R-AK) has now hired a criminal defense lawyer to represent
him in the ongoing FBI corruption probe as to whether he received
illegal gifts in exchange for helping secure financing for specific
appropriations projects. FLORIDA: A new
Strategic Vision-R poll of likely Florida
primary votes show New Yorkers Hillary Clinton (D) and Rudy Giuliani
(R) holding comfortable leads in their respective primary
contests. The Dem numbers: Clinton - 37%, Barack Obama - 21%,
John Edwards - 20%, Bill Richardson - 4%, Joe Biden - 3%,
Chris Dodd - 2%, Dennis Kucinich -1%. The GOP numbers: Giuliani
- 30%, Fred Thompson - 24%, John McCain - 11%, Mitt Romney - 8%,
Newt Gingrich - 4%, and all others with 2% or less each. BLOOMBERG: California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)
appears to be throwing his support behind the possible Indy Presidential
candidacy of billionaire NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg. The Governator
told reporters Bloomberg should considering jumping into the race
because he would be an "excellent candidate [because he's]
all about fixing problems and creating a great vision for the
future." When asked about Bloomberg abandoning the GOP, Schwarzenegger's
spokesman said "the Governor has always said it doesn't matter
what party you are a member of, what matters is serving the public."
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.21.07 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Have at it.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.21.07 | Permalink
|
WEDNESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
BLOOMBERG
GOES INDY; IA POLL; GA CD-10 RESULTS; THE WYO THREE; SC TREASURER
INDICTED; THE RETURN OF JOHNNY SACK. BLOOMBERG: Billionaire businesman
and New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg switched his registration
from Republican to Independent on Tuesday. This makes Bloomberg
now a former Democrat and former Republican -- and seemingly more
likely to become an Indy Presidential candidate for 2008. "Although
my plans for the future haven’t changed, I believe this
brings my affiliation into alignment with how I have led and will
continue to lead our city," explained Bloomberg. He also
said he has "no plans" to run for President in 2008
-- yet another evasive non-denial from the Mayor who told NBC
he blames most of this nation's current political problems on
"the politicians in Washington." A story in Politco
two days ago reported that Bloomberg met in Oklahoma last month
with university president and former US Senator Dave Boren (D-OK)
to discuss a possibly Indy run next year. Hmm. IOWA: A new Mason-Dixon/McClatchy Newspapers poll of likely
Iowa caucus participants shows Mitt Romney holding a lead in the
GOP race, but a close contests exists among the "big 3"
Dems in their contest. The GOP numbers: Romney - 25%, Fred Thompson
- 17%, Rudy Giuliani - 15%, Mike Huckabee - 7%, and John McCain
and Sam Brownback tied with 6% apiece. McCain's leading role on
the recent immigration legislation push is seemingly causing his
support to implode quicker than
any candidate since Gary Hart in 1988. On the Dem side, Hillary
Clinton has 22%, John Edwards has 21%, Barack Obama has 18%, Bill
Richardson has 6%, Joe Biden has 4%, and all others had 2% or
less apiece. GEORGIA: Voters
cast ballots on Tuesday in the CD-10 special election to replace
the late Congressman Charlie Norwood (R). As no candidate captured
a majority of the vote, the top two contenders will advance to
a July 17 run-off. Conservative State Senator Jim Whitehead (R)
placed first with 44% of the vote. With all but 3 scattered precincts
counted, physician and frequent candidate Paul Broun (R)
appeared to edge out wealthy
former Yahoo internet executive Jim Marlow (D) for second place
by a 20.6% to 20.4% vote. The two men are separated by a margin
of 115 votes. All of the seven others in the race finished in
the low single digits. The 64-year-old Whitehead remains
a heavy favorite to win the run-off based upon the district's
GOP demographics. The CD-10 seat represents parts of 21 different
counties. CLINTON:
Kudos to Hillary Clinton's campaign for their Sopranos
parody video used to unveil her official new campaign song.
FYI: Keep in mind, I'm one of those Sopranos fans who thought
the series ending was brilliant. Bonus points to HRC for the onion
rings, parallel parking, Journey music, the pair of black guys,
and the "focus on the good times" references -- and
mega-points for getting "Johnny Sack" to return from
the grave to appear in her video. Subtract a few points for filming
it in daylight, but it was still an a very cool move. Sadly, after
this great lead-up, Clinton picked the uninspiring choice of "You
and I" by Canadian singer Celine Dion as her new campaign
song. It was originally written for an Air Canada television commercial.
What a terrible dénouement for her song choice! WYOMING: The Wyoming Republican Central Committee on Tuesday
narrowed from 30 to five the list of candidates to replace the
late US Senator Craig Thomas (R). The state party must submit
a list of three names to Governor Dave Freudenthal (D), who must
then select one of the three to fill the seat until the November
2008 special election. After three rounds of voting, the party
activists cut the list to three names: former State GOP Chair
Tom Sansonetti, State Senator John Barrasso and former State Treasurer
Cynthia Lummis. Sansonetti -- the most conservative of the three
finalists -- placed first in all three rounds of voting. Barrasso,
a physician, said his top priority is promoting rural health care.
Lummis is a longtime Freudenthal foe, so her appointment seems
unlikely. (FYI: Former State Agriculture Director Ron Micheli
made the short list of five, but was eliminated on the third round
of voting. Ron was my immediate supervisor when I worked 25 years
ago for the National Cattlemen's Association.) SOUTH CAROLINA: State Treasurer Tom Ravenel (R) was indicted
on Tuesday by a federal grand jury on charges of conspiracy to
possess cocaine with the intent distribute. According to the indictment,
Ravenel and another man possessed cocaine and criminally conspired
for the past two years to distribute it within the state. If convicted,
Ravenel faces up to 20 years in prison. Ravenel -- a wealthy real
estate developer who made a competitive run for US Senate in the
2004 primary -- is currently state chair of Rudy Giuliani's Presidential
campaign. Governor Mark Sanford (R) immediately suspended Ravenel
from office after the indictment was announced. "Given the
grave nature of these charges and what is alleged in this indictment,
we're left with no choice but to suspend Treasurer Ravenel immediately,"
said Sanford. Conservatives had been trying to convince Ravenel
to make a primary challenge to US Senator Lindsey Graham (R) next
year -- based largely on their opposition to the incumbent's views
on immigration and some War on Terror related issues -- but Ravenel
recently announced he would not seek the Senate seat. NEW HAMPSHIRE: Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) confirmed
this week she is considering a run next year against US Senator
John Sununu (R). Shaheen's husband said she will announce a decision
on the race within the next three months. Portsmouth Mayor Steve
Marchand, former Space Shuttle astronaut Jay Buckey and Democratic
activist Katrina Swett are already announced Dem candidates for
the seat. Marchand is a progressive who says he would quit the
race if Shaheen runs. Swett -- wife of former Congressman Dick
Swett (D) -- is a more conservative Dem who campaigned in support
of US Senator Joe Lieberman's Indy re-election run last fall.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.20.07 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Here in my backyard, Broward County Circuit Judge Larry Seidlin
resigned from the bench to reportedly accept a job as a TV show
judge on CBS. That's fine by me, as Broward County's gain is CBS's
loss.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 06.20.07 | Permalink
|
TUESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
GA
CD-10 SPECIAL ELECTION; 10 MORE YEARS IN IRAQ; MORE PROBLEMS FOR
STEVENS. GEORGIA: Voters go to the polls on Tuesday to cast ballots
in the CD-10 special election to replace the late Congressman
Charlie Norwood (R). Conservative State Senator Jim Whitehead
(R) is the prohibitive frontrunner to win the seat, which favors
the GOP in registration and voting history. Whitehead has acted
like a frontrunner, avoiding nearly all of the debates so as to
avoid appearing as just "one of the ten" seeking the
seat. Wealthy former Yahoo internet executive Jim Marlow (D) appears
likely to secure the second place spot. Six Republicans, three
Democrats and a Libertarian are competing in
the primary. If Whitehead fails to win a majority in the primary,
the top two will compete in a run-off on July 17. IRAQ: Army
General David Petraeas, speaking this weekend on Fox News, seemingly
discounted Congressional GOP hopes that President Bush's surge
strategy would produce measurable results by this September. Instead,
Petraeus said a successful military campaign against the Iraqi
insurgents could take as many as 9-10 more years. If that view
holds, it is clear many key Congressional Republicans -- including
top members of the House and Senate GOP Leadership -- plan to
rapidly distance themselves from President Bush's war strategy
by this fall. "Most members of my conference in the Senate
believe [that September will be] the critical point to evaluate
where we are ... I think everybody anticipates that there's going
to be a new strategy in the fall. I find growing support in the
Senate among Republicans, and for that matter, some Democrats
as well, for the recommendations of the [Baker-Hamilton] Iraq
Study Group," said US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
(R) to CBS. ALASKA: According to The Politico, both the DSCC
and DCCC are attempting to recruit popular Anchorage Mayor Mark
Begich (D) as a candidate next year. The DSCC reportedly believes
US Senator Ted Stevens (R) is vulnerable as he now appears to
be the target of an aggressive FBI corruption investigation. According
to the Anchorage Daily News, federal prosecutors began
presenting witnesses and evidence about Stevens to separate grand
juries last month in both Alaska and DC -- meaning the investigation
appears more advanced than previously believed. The DCCC would
like Begich -- son of the late Congressman Nick Begich (D-AK)
-- to instead challenge Congressman Don Young (R). The DCCC thinks
Young's support for numerous questionable funding earmarks could
make him a ripe target. According to Politico, Begich is
more interested in the Stevens race than in seeking his father's
former House seat.
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MONDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
OBAMA
& THOMPSON LEAD IN S.C.; LEPPERT WINS IN DALLAS; GOOD NEWS
FOR SESSIONS. SOUTH CAROLINA: A new Mason-Dixon/McClatchy Newspapers
poll of likely South Carolina primary voters shows Barack Obama
(D) and Fred Thompson (R) leading their respective primary fields.
On the Dem side, Obama had 34%, Hillary Clinton had 26%, John
Edwards was at 12%, Joe Biden had 2%, Bill Richardson captured
1%, and all others were below the 1% mark. Edwards won the SC
primary in 2004. Obama's strong lead is largely attributable to
his 41%-18% lead over Clinton with black voters. Here are the
numbers from the GOP side: Thompson - 25%; Rudy Giuliani - 21%;
Mitt Romney - 11%; John McCain - 7%; Mike Huckabee - 5%; Sam Brownback,
Duncan Hunter and Tommy Thompson each had 1%; and all others were
below the 1% mark. McCain had previously polled well in the state,
visits the state repeatedly, and has significant endorsements
from state GOP leaders. Thompson, however, appeared to score most
of his gains at the expense of McCain. Pollster Brad Coker said
the numbers show Thompson is quickly establishing himself as the
major Southern candidate in the GOP race. DALLAS: Wealthy
businessman Tom Leppert (R) defeated openly gay City Councilman
Ed Oakley (D) in the non-partisan runoff for Dallas Mayor on Saturday
by a 58%-42% margin. Oakley carried all of the city's largely
black and Hispanic area, while Leppert carried all of the largely
white communities. The white communities also produced a significantly
larger turnout, giving Leppert his comfortable victory. ALABAMA: State Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks (D)
confirmed he will not run against US Senator Jeff Sessions (R)
next year. Instead, Sparks said he is keeping the earlier promise
he made to defer to State Senator Vivian Davis Figures (D). "I
don't want to divide the Democratic Party," said Sparks to
the AP. He said he promised Figures he would not run if she entered
the race and that she recently told him she decided to run. Figures
would not say she was a candidate, but says an official announcement
would be "forthcoming." Sessions appears a safe bet
to win over a second tier candidate like Figures.
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IMMIGRATION
REFORM: The Kennedy-McCain immigration reform bill -- strongly
backed by the Bush Administration -- died in the US Senate on
Thursday. The latest compromise version of the bill, back
yet again from the political grave just days ago, died by a fourteen
vote margin after 6 Democrats and twelve Republicans changed their
votes from earlier this week to oppose the bill on Thursday's
vote. US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Presidential
candidate Sam Brownback (R-KS) were among those who switched sides.
Observers agree the issue is now dead in Congress until after
the 2008 elections. President Bush announced himself "disappointed"
in the outcome. The immigration issue is largely viewed as the
cause of of Senator John McCain (R-AZ) seeing his campaign tank
into the single-digits and second-tier status in recent weeks.
University
poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters shows Mitt Romney
and Hillary Clinton (or Al Gore) leading in the state. Let's
start with the GOP, because that picture is clearer: Romney -
26%, Rudy Giuliani - 22%, and Fred Thompson and John McCain tied
with 13% each. This represents a 7-point gain for Romney, a 15-point
drop for Giuliani, and a 14-point drop for McCain since the last
WHDH poll. As for the Democrats, Clinton led with 37%, followed
by Barack Obama at 17%, John Edwards and, Bill Richardson tied
with 9% apiece. However, when Gore's name was added to the field,
Gore jumped into the lead. with 32% and Clinton loses a quarter
of her support. Now there's a mischievous poll question for 'ya!
Strategic
Vision-R poll of likely Iowa caucus participants shows John Edwards
(D) and Mitt Romney (R) currently leading in the state.
The Dems: Edwards - 26%, Barack Obama - 21%, Hillary Clinton -
20%, Bill Richardson - 11%, Joe Biden - 4%, Chris Dodd - 2%, Dennis
Kucinich - 1%. The GOP: Romney - 23%, Fred Thompson - 17%, Rudy
Giuliani - 14%, John McCain - 10%, Tommy Thompson - 6%, Mike Huckabee
- 5%, Newt Gingrich - 4%, Sam Brownback - 3%, Ron Paul and Tom
Tancredo tied with 2% each, and Chuck Hagel, Duncan Hunter and
Jim Gilmore tied with 1% apiece. The same poll also showed Iowa
Republicans favor a "withdrawal of all US military from Iraq
within the next six months" by a margin of 56%-38%. Dems
favored the same stance by a more lopsided 83%-6% margin.
reports
that US Senator John Warner (R) "is giving clear indications
that he will not return for another term and that his coyness
is merely an attempt to help" centrist Congressman Tom Davis
(R) position himself as his successor. Warner's vague response:
"I am seriously considering running again for the Senate
and ... I will announce my decision about the Senate race in September."
If Warner quits, the conservative newspaper said others possibly
interested in challenging Davis for the GOP nomination include
former Governor Jim Gilmore, former State GOP Chair Kate Griffin,
and Congressmen Eric Cantor, Bob Goodlatte and Randy Forbes. Former
US Senator George Allen (R) announced last week he would not run
if the seat comes open next year. Davis' supporters acknowledge
he is a social moderate -- which might not appeal to GOP religious
conservatives -- but that his Northern Virginia base makes him
the most electable Republican candidate in an open seat race.
The newspaper also reports that former Governor Mark Warner is
likely to be the Democratic candidate if Senator Warner retires.
but
Richardson has been running a very aggressive campaign in these
closing days. The winner of the Dem primary is sure to win the
run-off in this safe Democratic seat
LITMUS
TEST: A few days ago, US Senator Sam Brownback (R) said he's
use an abortion litmus test in selecting US Supreme Court justices
-- saying only one more vote was needed to overturn Roe v.
Wade. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (D) agrees abortion
should be a litmus test, but from the other side of the issue.
"I know that I am going to upset some people. I would say,
'Do you believe Roe v. Wade is settled law?' and if they
say, 'Yes,' they have a good chance of being picked. If they say
'No,' I will not pick them," said Richardson in Des Moines.
John
Barrasso (R) to fill the US Senate seat left vacant by the June
4 death of Craig Thomas (R). By state law, the Governor was required
to select one of the three Republican names submitted to him by
the Wyoming GOP. Barrasso, a surgeon, takes office immediately
and will serve until November 2008. Barrasso has already stated
he will be a candidate in the November 2008 special election to
fill the remaining four years of Thomas' term. "I believe
in limited government, lower taxes, less spending, traditional
family values, local control and a strong national defense ...
I have voted for prayer in schools, against gay marriage and have
sponsored legislation to protect the sanctity of life ... I'm
very grateful to the [Republican State] Central Committee, and
I'm very grateful to the Governor," said Barrasso on Friday.
Barrasso lost the 1996 open seat GOP primary for US Senate to
Mike Enzi, before being elected to the State Senate in 2002. He
starts as a strong favorite to hold the seat next year, based
upon the state's GOP voting history.
damaging
attacks on former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney's Mormon
faith in the past few weeks may finally force Romney to more directly
discuss the LDS Church's beliefs and his view of them. The McCain
and Brownback campaigns were both caught in disseminating anti-Mormon
messages in Iowa. And last week, for example, a prominent Southern
Baptist leader released a statement explaining why he thought
fundamentalist Christians would be unable to support Romney due
to religious beliefs. Romney supporter Ryan Bell -- a Utah attorney
and Mormon -- launched 
Ralph
Nader (I-CT) is again sounding like a probable White House candidate.
In a series of media interviews on Wednesday and Thursday, the
73-year-old Nader acknowledged he is "seriously thinking"
of making a fifth White House run in 2008. He said 2008 looks
to be another "Tweedledum-Tweedledee election that offers
little real choice to voters." Nader offered some mild praise
for NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg's possible Indy run -- saying it
could help ease ballot and debate access for other Independents
as well -- and said Bloomberg "is interesting, unpredictable.
I really like the stand he took against smoking, but he goes along
with corporate welfare in New York and tax-funded stadiums. So
he is unfinished in that way." Nader told The Politico
Hillary Clinton as "a political coward ... [who] goes around
pandering to powerful interest groups on the one hand and flattering
general audiences on the other. She doesn't even have the minimal
political fortitude of her husband." As for candidates he
respects, he named two: Ron Paul (R) and Mike Gravel (D). Nader
said his biggest obstacle to running again was simply putting
together enough volunteers and pro bono lawyers to win him ballot
access in enough states.
unfair
move, Iowans for Tax Relief have decided to exclude Congressman
Ron Paul from their GOP Presidential forum next week in Des Moines.
Ed Failor Jr., VP of the group, offered the weak excuse
that they did not invite Paul because he was not a "credible"
candidate. Paul does not yet have an Iowa HQ, although his campaign
is currently trying to fill two full-time staff positions in the
state. The group, however, invited second tier hopefuls Mike Huckabee,
Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, and Tom Tancredo.
If there is one issue upon which Paul -- "Dr. No" --
has been most vocal during his many years in Congress, it is his
strident opposition to any and all taxes. To denounce Paul as
a non-credible candidate while inviting Hunter, Tancredo and Tommy
Thompson -- all generally tied with him in the polls -- smacks
of disingenuousness on behalf of the group's leadership. Shame
on them.
Not
that there aren't already a large pack of second tier White House
hopefuls fighting for attention, but it now appears former Ambassador
Alan Keyes (R-MD) is readying to enter the race. Check out 
hopefuls
all made appearances at the Take Back America conference on Wednesday,
a large national gathring of liberal activists. Senator Hillary
Clinton -- who attended the event despite warning the crowd was
hostile to her candidacy because of her refusal to apologize for
her vote in favor of the Iraq War -- was booed by the crowd when
she made remarks praising the US military. The Politico
sponsored a straw poll of attendees, and 720 participated. Senator
Barack Obama placed first with 29%, followed closely by John Edwards
with 26%. Clinton was third with 17%, followed by Bill Richardson
at 9%, write-in non-candidate Al Gore at 8%, Dennis Kucinich at
5%, and all others with 1% or less apiece. Dem pollster Stan Greenberg,
who conducted the survey, said the results confirmed yet again
that Obama and Edwards are the favorite of the party's progressive
base. FYI: Some attendees at the convo loudly heckled House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for not doing enough to oppose the Iraq War.
primary
contests. The Dem numbers: Clinton - 37%, Barack Obama - 21%,
John Edwards - 20%, Bill Richardson - 4%, Joe Biden - 3%,
Chris Dodd - 2%, Dennis Kucinich -1%. The GOP numbers: Giuliani
- 30%, Fred Thompson - 24%, John McCain - 11%, Mitt Romney - 8%,
Newt Gingrich - 4%, and all others with 2% or less each. 
in
the primary. If Whitehead fails to win a majority in the primary,
the top two will compete in a run-off on July 17.
fields.
On the Dem side, Obama had 34%, Hillary Clinton had 26%, John
Edwards was at 12%, Joe Biden had 2%, Bill Richardson captured
1%, and all others were below the 1% mark. Edwards won the SC
primary in 2004. Obama's strong lead is largely attributable to
his 41%-18% lead over Clinton with black voters. Here are the
numbers from the GOP side: Thompson - 25%; Rudy Giuliani - 21%;
Mitt Romney - 11%; John McCain - 7%; Mike Huckabee - 5%; Sam Brownback,
Duncan Hunter and Tommy Thompson each had 1%; and all others were
below the 1% mark. McCain had previously polled well in the state,
visits the state repeatedly, and has significant endorsements
from state GOP leaders. Thompson, however, appeared to score most
of his gains at the expense of McCain. Pollster Brad Coker said
the numbers show Thompson is quickly establishing himself as the
major Southern candidate in the GOP race.
