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BLOG ARCHIVE: MAY 1-15, 2008.

THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE.

JOHN EDWARDS ENDORSES OBAMA; OH ATTY GEN RESIGNS IN SEX SCANDAL; THE GOP'S GLOOMY HOUSE PROSPECTS.

P2008 - DEMS. Just one day after Hillary Clinton won a landslide victory in the West Virginia primary, Barack Obama found a way to immediately take the wind out of his rival's sails. On Wednesday -- just before the start of the evening news -- former Presidential rival John Edwards made a surprise endorsement of Obama. While Edwards made a point of praising Clinton, this is what he said about Obama: "There is one man who knows and understands that this is a time for bold leadership. There is one man that knows how to create the change, the lasting change, that you have to build from the ground up. There is one man who knows in his heart there is time to create one America, not two ... and that man is Barack Obama." The official response from the Clinton campaign: "We respect John Edwards, but as the voters of West Virginia showed last night, this thing is far from over." As for next week's Oregon primary, a new Portland Tribune poll shows Obama leading Clinton by a 55% to 35% vote. In other news, based upon his most recent gains, Obama now needs just 133.5 more delegates to secure the nomination ... and NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC endorsed Obama.

OHIO. Two weeks after acknowledging he engaged in a sexual affair with his scheduler and has mismanaged the office -- and just one day after Ohio House Democrats filed articles of impeachment against him -- Attorney General Marc Dann (D) resigned on Wednesday. Dann said he needs to "focus on his family now ... I sincerely viewed it as my fiduciary responsibility to fix the problems on my watch, especially as it concerned my own actions. Unfortunately, it is now clear that the last step I must take to fix these problems is to resign as attorney general, effective immediately." Governor Ted Strickland (D) will name an interim replacements, and each party will designate nominees for a special election to held this November for the remaining two years of the term.

CONGRESS. How bad are GOP congressional prospects for November? Here is what Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) -- the former NRCC Chair -- wrote in a memo he released on day after the stunning Republican loss of the Mississippi CD-1 seat. "The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than the fall of 2006, when we lost 30 seats (and our majority) and came within a couple of percentage points of losing another 15 seats," said Davis. The Politico reports several GOP insiders now say the loss of at least another 20 House seats this November is a very realistic prospect.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.15.08 | Permalink |

WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

CLINTON WINS BIG IN WV; DEM SCORES MAJOR UPSET IN MISSISSIPPI CD-1 SPECIAL ELECTION; STATE PRIMARY RESULTS FROM WV, NE.

P2008 - DEMS. As expected, Hillary Clinton rolled to a landslide victory in the West Virginia primary on Tuesday. Clinton won by about a 2.5-to-1 margin. Clinton, in her victory, vowed to continue until the party has a nominee. However, she made a point of noting several times that she and Barack Obama generally share values that contrast sharply with Republican John McCain. In other P2008 news, former Colorado Governor and former Clinton Administration Democratic National Chair Roy Romer endorsed Obama on Tuesday. With his recent superdelegate gains, Obama now needs just 146 more delegates to secure the nomination.

MISSISSIPPI. Prentiss County Clerk Travis Childers (D) scored a major upset victory in the congressional special election for the open CD-1 seat vacated by interim US Senator Roger Wicker (R). Although the seat is solidly Republican in voting history, Childers defeated Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R) by a 54% to 46% vote. Republicans unsuccessfully tried to nationalize the race, tying Childers to Barack Obama and his controversial former minister Jeremiah Wright. The NRCC, Davis' campaign, and a 527-group spent a combined total of nearly $3 million on behalf of the GOP's failing effort in this rural, conservative district. The White House also weighed in, as Vice President Dick Cheney personally stumped in the district for Davis. Childers and Davis will face-off again in a November rematch. GOP insiders in DC now privately acknowledge the Democratic victory in this seat likely foreshadows a dismal general election ahead for congressional Republicans.

WEST VIRGINIA. Governor Joe Manchin (D) and US Senator Jay Rockefeller (D) both cruised to primary victories by 3-to-1 margins. Both men are very safe in November. Anne Barth -- the long-time state director for US Senator Robert Byrd and the candidate backed by the Dem establisment -- easily won the congressional primary in District 2. Barth will face Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R) in November. Race rating: Leans GOP. Click here to see the November nominees.

NEBRASKA. Most eyes were on the open US Senate race. Former Governor and former US Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns won the GOP primary with 79% over businessman Pat Flynn. Rancher and '06 congressional nominee Scott Kleeb likewise rolled to a big Dem primary win with 68% over three opponents. Race rating: GOP Favored. Click here to see the November nominees.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.14.08 | Permalink |

TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

OBAMA GAINS 4 SUPERS; WV PRIMARY DAY; MISSISSIPPI CD-1 SPECIAL ELECTION; NEBRASKA PRIMARY; RON PAUL REVOLUTION CONTINUES; NC SEN POLL.

P2008 - DEMS. Barack Obama scored the endorsements of four more superdelegates on Monday: US Senator Dan Akaka (D-HI), Congressman Tom Allen (D-ME) and two non-enelected officials. Despite Obama's rapidly rising delegate total, Hillary Clinton is expected to score a landslide win in the West Virginia primary on Tuesday. Governor Joe Manchin (D) told CNN that -- despite what is expected to happen to Obama in the primary -- Obama "would also be able to carry the state in the general election" over John McCain.

MISSISSIPPI. The most-watched contest of the day is the congressional special election for the open CD-1 seat vacated by interim US Senator Roger Wicker (R). Prentiss County Clerk Travis Childers (D) narrowly edged Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R) in last months primary for this usually safe GOP seat. Both men are social and fiscal conservatives, but they differ sharply on the Iraq War. Davis strongly supports the war, while Childers advocates a swift withdrawal of US forces from Iraq. Davis and the NRCC have spent extensively to run TV spots trying to tie Childers to the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the national Democrats. The NRCC has spent $1.3 million, a pro-GOP 527-group spent another $450,000, and Davis himself spent $1.2 million. By contrast, the DCCC spent $1.8 million and Childers spent $680,000. Vice President Dick Cheney also stumped in the district in support of Davis. The GOP made the major push to avoid an embarrassing defeat in another House special election. A Childers victory -- if it happens -- in a place like rural Mississippi would appear to be an ominous harbinger of a cataclysmically devastating year ahead for the GOP.

WEST VIRGINIA. Besides the largely non-contested Presidential primary, there are lots of other races on Tuesday's primary ballot. Governor Joe Manchin will win a massive renomination victory in the Dem primary over State Delegate Mel Kessler. Ditto for US Senator Jay Rockefeller (D), who will easily trounce two primary challengers. Both Manchin and Rockefeller are safe bets to win re-election in November. One race worth watching is the Democratic congressional primary for the CD-2 swing seat. The winner will face Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R) in November. Anne Barth, the long-time state director for US Senator Robert Byrd, is the frontrunner. Her two opponents are attorney Thornton Cooper and former South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb.

NEBRASKA. Tuesday is also a non-Presidential primary day in Nebraska. Former Governor and former US Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns is expected to easily win the GOP primary for the open US Senate seat. Rancher and '06 congressional nominee Scott Kleeb is favored to win the Dem contest over wealthy businessman Tony Raimondo and two others. Johanns is favored over Kleeb in the general election. There are also primaries for both major parties in CD-2 and CD-3.

NORTH CAROLINA. A new Public Policy Polling survey shows the US Senate race is rapidly tightening. The numbers: US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 48%, State Senator Kay Hagan - 43%.

P2008 - GOP. Congressman Ron Paul (R) is continuing his insurgent, libertarian campaign for President against John McCain. The Los Angeles Times reports Paul is sitting on roughly $5 million in his campaign account and plans to have his supporters cause major turmoil at this summer's GOP convention. They want to embarrass McCain and the party for purportedly abandoning the fiscal and foreign policy values they believe the Republicans traditionally held. The move is also intended to give Paul clout to negotiate for a prime-time televised speaking slot at the convention.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.13.08 | Permalink |

MONDAY NEWS UPDATE.

OBAMA LEAD GROWS; SEX SCANDAL N.Y. CONGRESSMAN MAY RUN AGAIN; QUESTIONS ABOUT LAUTENBERG'S TRUE HOME; ISAKSON WON'T RUN FOR GA GOV IN '10.

P2008 - DEMS. Barack Obama scored the endorsements of more superdelegates throughout the weekend -- so much so it is clear he will officially lock-up the nomination by the end of the primary season. In fact, at this pace, he may secure a sufficient number of delegates for the nomination by the end of this month. Despite this, Clinton is expected to easily win the West Virginia primary on Tuesday. "It's not over until the lady in the pantsuit says it is," joked Clinton at a campaign stop on Sunday. Obama is just 155 delegates shy of winning the nomination as of Sunday evening.

NEW YORK. Congressman Vito Fossella (R) -- mired in an embarrassing extramarital sex scandal following his recent DUI arrest -- appears to be reconsidering rumored plans to either resign or retire. According to the NY-1 cable channel, Fossella has yet to make a formal decision but apparently he now is leaning towards seeking re-election. GOP leaders are generally pushing Fossella to quit, saying they need a stronger candidate now to be able to hold the NYC seat in November. Congressman Peter King (R-NY), a Fossella friend, said that his fellow Republicans need to stop pressuring Fossella and give him the time to make a thoughtful decision.

NEW JERSEY. US Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) declared his $2 million condo in DC as his "permanent residence" until 2005 in order to claim a valuable homestead property tax exemption in DC. Only after reporters asked about it did he end the practice, according to a source. Interestingly, Lautenberg's wife maintains a luxury apartment at 555 Park Avenue in New York City were she is registered to vote. Lautenberg is registered to vote at his NJ condo. The concierge at Lautenberg's NJ condominium building in Bergen County told our source that Lautenberg rarely visited the premises in the last couple of years and only began using the apartment again in the last couple of months. The concierge said that Lautenberg’s office sends a staffer to pick up his mail each week. By the way, Lautenberg also owns a $2 million ski chalet in Vail, Colorado. Look for Congressman Rob Andrews's to make an issue of all this in the primary, raising questions about the sincerity of Lautenberg's commitment to New Jersey residents.

GEORGIA: US Senator Johnny Isakson (R) announced this weekend he will not be a candidate for Governor in 2010. The move was a surprise, as he was viewed as the likely frontrunner for the job. Instead, Isakson said he plans to seek re-election. Governor Sonny Perdue (R) is term-limited.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.12.08 | Permalink |

FRIDAY NEWS UPDATE.

OBAMA LANDS TWO MORE SUPERS; CONGRESSMAN FOSSELLA, OHIO A.G. SINKING IN SEX SCANDALS; ... AND HOW BIG OF A TENT?

P2008 - DEMS. Barack Obama landed two more superdelegates on Thursday: Congressmen Rick Larsen (D-WA) and Brad Miller (D-NC). The Larsen endorsement came after Obama paid a surprise visit to the House floor. No new supers on Thursday for Hillary Clinton.

NEW YORK. Congressman Vito Fossella (R) appears on the verge of retirement -- something seemingly unthinkable a week ago -- after his DUI arrest and subsequent admissions of fathering a child during an extramartal affair. "I have had a relationship with Laura Fay, with whom I have a three-year-old daughter. My personal failings and imperfections have caused enormous pain to the people I love and I am truly sorry. While I understand that there will be many questions, including those about my political future, making any political decisions right now are furthest from my mind," said Fossella in a written statement on Thursday. GOP insiders expect Fossella to shortly announce he will not seek re-election to the CD-13 seat. If convicted on the DUI charge, he faces a five-day mandatory minimum jail sentence. Fossella is the only Republican currently representing a New York City district.

OHIO: Another brewing sex scandal involves Attorney General Marc Dann (D). Over the past two weeks, Dann -- elected in 2006 as a self-styled reformer -- has acknowledged he engaged in a sexual affair with his scheduler and has mismanaged the office. Two top aides to Dann were fired and a third resigned last week following an internal investigation into sexual harassment claims by two female staffers. Dann says he lacked any professional management experience required to properly run a staff as large as the AG's office. Governor Ted Strickland (D), the Ohio AFL-CIO and leading state Dems openly called on Dann to resign or face impeachment. The AFL-CIO called Dann "a disgrace." In a sign that Dann plans to fight back, he hired a Texas political consultant Thursday who specializes in crisis management.

FLORIDA. Republicans love to use the phrase "Big Tent" to describe the purported range of views welcomed within the GOP -- but a new Republican candidate in Florida may be testing the limits. Meet criminal defense attorney Gary Ostrow, the new GOP nominee for Broward County Public Defender. Ostrow garnered media coverage when he previously represented Miami Dolphins star runningback Ricky Williams for testing positive for marijuana, in violation of the NFL's substance abuse policies. Does Ostrow have unusual views? Ostrow is a Republican who plagiarizes Karl Marx for his personal quote on his AOL Instant Messenger page. "Organized religion is the sign of the oppressed creature ... It is the opium of the people," writes Ostrow. Colorful? Check out Ostrow's personal YouTube page -- linking to all his favorite soft-core porn and stripper videos. But -- most unorthodox of all -- was how Ostrow celebrated the last-minute filing his candidacy papers just before last Friday's deadline: by announcing he put $200,000 of his own money into his campaign account ... and then getting himself arrested a few hours later on felony cocaine possession charges.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.09.08 | Permalink |

THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE.

OBAMA LOOKS TO FALL CAMPAIGN AS MORE SUPERS START TO COMMIT; CLINTON LIKELY TO EXIT RACE IN MID-JUNE.

P2008 - DEMS. A day after essentially eliminating Hillary Clinton as a viable rival, Barack Obama started to lock up the remaining superdelegates needed to clinch the nomination. Superdelegate and Virginia State Delegate Jennifer McClellan unendorsed Clinton and switched to Obama. Other supers endorsing Obama on Wednesday: Florida State House Minority Leader Dan Gelber, North Carolina Democratic State Chair Jerry Meek, and two DNC members. "I think that Senator Obama is going to be a tremendous boost for down-ballot races in North Carolina. He's going to turn out segments of the electorate -- particularly young people and African-Americans -- who have historically low turnout levels. That will help candidates up and down the ballot," said Meek to the AP. Clinton also picked up three superdelegates: Congressmen Heath Shuler (D-NC) and Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) and a Texas labor union leader. While Clinton made a brief campaign visit to West Virginia -- in large part to kill the rumors she was on the verge of exiting the race -- her standard stump speech eliminated all of her previous criticisms of Obama and now contained a muted vow to remain in the race "until we have a nominee" (versus her former "until the convention" pledge). Lawrence O'Donnell reported that a senior Clinton strategist hinted Clinton is planning to exit the White House race in mid-June. The insider said the Democrats "will have a nominee by June 15." The source emphasized to O'Donnell that Clinton will be "reasonable" and make a "reality-based" decision in June about the outcome of the race. Meanwhile, Obama took Wednesday off from the campaign trail -- and his staff announced the candidate will immediately start focusing on the general election by scheduling a quick series of visits to key swing states.

INDIANA REDUX. Here is the one race result we couldn't call last night. Former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson scored a very narrow 0.5% victory over wealthy businessman Jim Schellinger in the Dem gubernatorial contest. Schellinger conceded the race and will not request a recount. Long Thompson will face Governor Mitch Daniels (R) in November. Race rating: Toss-Up.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.08.08 | Permalink |

WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

OBAMA WINS LANDSLIDE IN NC; INDIANA TOO CLOSE TO CALL; ALL CONGRESSIONAL INCUMBENTS SURVIVED TUESDAY'S PRIMARIES.

P2008 - DEMS. Barack Obama rolled to a big victory in North Carolina -- so big that it virtually wiped out all of the delegate and overall popular vote gains Hillary Clinton made two weeks ago in Pennsylvania. Although Obama had lead in NC polling for weeks, Clinton dropped advertising money and paid staffers into the state, was endorsed last week by Governor Mike Easley, and Bill Clinton spent most of the final week campaigning full-time in the Tarheel State. The NC numbers: Obama - 56%, Clinton - 42%. By contrast, Indiana was a much closer fight. Clinton led by a 51% to 49% vote with 91% counted, but many of the unreported precincts were from communities where Obama was peforming strongly. Thus, as of midnight, the contest remained too close to call. Clinton, however, claimed victory in her remarks. Obama, in a brilliant political move, also declared Clinton the Indiana winner in his NC victory speech. Thus, if Obama wins a narrow upset win in Indiana when the final votes are counted, it will appear all the more damaging to Clinton. Actually, an Obama win in Indiana would likely force Clinton to suspend her campaign by the end of this week. If Clinton scores a narrow victory -- which still seems more likely than not -- Obama will be on track to instead lock-up the nomination within the next 2-4 weeks. Stay tuned. Either way, Tuesday's results solidly confirmed that Obama will be the nominee. Look for the "unity ticket" calls to grow louder in coming days -- particularly from the Clinton backers -- as they try to pressure Obama to at least consider Clinton for his VP runningmate.

P2008 - GOP. Here is a set of Tuesday election numbers you're not hearing discussed, but which seem significant. John McCain won the NC primary with 74% -- meaning that 26% of North Carolina Republicans showed up at the polls and voted against McCain. In Indiana, 22% of Republicans voted against McCain in the primary. Looks like McCain still has a ways to go to shore up his base for November.

NORTH CAROLINA. Here are the results of key down-ballot races from Tuesday's primaries. GOVERNOR: Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue won the Democratic nomination over State Treasurer Richard Moore, winning by a 55% to 41% vote. On the GOP side, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory won the primary with 46%. State Senator Fred Smith was second with 36%, and three others split the remaining votes. Race rating: Leans DEM. US SENATE: State Senator Kay Hagan -- the DSCC's candidate -- won the Democratic nomination in a landslide, taking 60% against four opponents. She will face US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) in November. Race rating: GOP Favored. CD-3: Congressman Walter Jones Jr. -- a vocal Iraq War opponent and Ron Paul ally -- scored a surprisingly lopsided GOP primary win. The district is heavily dominated by giant military bases, but Jones still won by a 60-40 vote. Race rating: Safe GOP. CD-10: Congressman Pat McHenry (R) defeated retired USAF officer Lance Sigmon by a 2-to-1 margin, despite a weathering a very nasty attack campaign from the challenger and a widespread whispering campaign that McHenry is gay. Race rating: Safe GOP. CD-11: Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower captured 48% in the three-way GOP contest for the right to oppose freshman Congressman Heath Shuler (D) in November. Race rating: DEM Favored.

INDIANA. Here are the notable gubernatorial and congressional primary results. GOVERNOR: Former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson and wealthy architectural firm owner Jim Schellinger were locked in a virtual tie nearly all night long as the Democratic primary results were counted. Schellinger held a narrow lead at 50.4% with most votes counted. A recount is possible. The winner will face vulnerable Governor Mitch Daniels (R) in November. Race rating: Toss-Up. CD-5: Congressman Dan Burton (R) survived an aggressive, year-long challenge to defeat former Marion County Coroner John McGoff by a 52% to 45% vote. Race rating: Safe GOP. CD-7: Congressman Andre Carson (D), who was recently elected in a special election to replace his late grandmother, won his crowded primary race. Carson took 46%, versus 24% for former State Health Commissioner Woody Myers, and 21% for State Representative David Orentlicher, and 8% for State Representative Carolene Mays. State Representative Jon Elrod (R) won his primary and will face Carson in a November rematch of the special election. Race rating: DEM Favored.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.07.08 | Permalink |

TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE.

FINAL IN, NC DEM PREZ POLLS; NC & INDIANA PRIMARIES FOR GOVERNOR, CONGRESS.

P2008 - DEMS. Since the NHL playoffs are going on these days, a hockey metaphor seems rather appropriate. Barack Obama is clearly playing the trap -- safe, runs out the clock, dull as hell to watch, but usually works. Let's face reality -- and risk pissing off the Hillary Clinton folks out there -- but most observers now acknowledge Obama will win the nomination. It's a matter of mathematics. Securing the nomination won't look like a knockout win (unless possibly if Obama wins both Indiana and North Carolina), but a win is always a win. So can we please get this thing over with already! That said, here are some new polls for Tuesday's primary contests:
INDIANA (Zogby): Obama - 44%, Clinton - 42%.
INDIANA (Insider Advantage): Clinton - 48%, Obama - 44%.
INDIANA (SurveyUSA): Clinton -54%, Obama - 42%.
INDIANA (Suffolk Univ.): Clinton - 49%, Obama - 43%.
INDIANA (PPP): Clinton - 51%, Obama - 46%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Zogby): Obama - 48%, Clinton - 40%.
NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): Obama - 50%, Clinton - 45%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Insider Advantage): Obama - 48%, Clinton - 45%.
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama - 53%, Clinton - 43%.

NORTH CAROLINA. Several other races are also on Tuesday's Presidential primary ballot. GOVERNOR: Governor Mike Easley (D) is term-limited, so both parties have competitive primaries to replace him. On the Dem side, polls show Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue leading State Treasurer Richard Moore by several points. On the GOP side, initial frontrunner Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory has seen his advantage disappear. State Senator Fred Smith has either tied or narrowly passed McCrory in recent polls, although GOP insiders believe McCrory may be a stronger candidate in November with better crossover appeal. Three other Republicans are also running. US SENATE: Incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) will win her primary in a landslide. State Senator Kay Hagan -- the DSCC's candidate -- is favored over investment banker Jim Neal for the Democratic nomination. CD-3: Congressman Walter Jones Jr. (R) is facing an aggressive primary challenge from Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin. Jones -- a former Iraq War supporter-turned-vocal critic -- was the only Congressman to endorse Ron Paul for President. McLaughlin strongly supports the Iraq War, which is helping him in this district heavily dominated by giant military bases. This race could go either way. CD-10: Congressman Patrick McHenry (R) is being challenged by retired USAF officer Lance Sigmon. Sigmon argues McHenry is dishonest and has "character" flaws, but the challenge really seems to be grounded upon the ongoing whispering campaign that McHenry may be a closeted gay man. Retired Congressman Cass Ballenger (R) has endorsed Sigmon, but McHenry is still expected to win by a comfortable margin. CD-11: Three Republicans are fighting to win the right to oppose freshman Congressman Heath Shuler (D) in November. Based upon fundraising to date, none of the Republicans look to be particularly viable against Shuler.

INDIANA. There are also gubernatorial and congressional primaries here on Tuesday. GOVERNOR: Former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson appears to have a slight edge over architectural firm owner Jim Schellinger in the Dem gubernatorial primary. Schellinger had fallen far behind, but recent polls show him rapidly closing the gap again. The winner will face vulnerable Governor Mitch Daniels (R) in November. CONGRESS: While the ballot is filled with US House races, only two primaries merit real attention. In CD-5, Congressman Dan Burton appears likely to score a comfortable win over former Marion County Coroner John McGoff. In CD-7, recently elected Congressman Andre Carson (D) should be able to fend off an aggressive and free-spending primary challenge from wealthy former State Health Commissioner Woody Myers. State Representatives David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays, plus four other Dems, are also running.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.06.08 | Permalink |

MONDAY NEWS UPDATE.

DEM SCORES UPSET PICKUP IN LOUISIANA CONGRESSIONAL SPECIAL ELECTION; OBAMA WINS GUAM BY 7-VOTE MARGIN; NEW NC, IN POLLS.

LOUISIANA. State Senator Steve Scalise (R) easily won the CD-1 congressional seat left vacant by the election last year of Congressman Bobby Jindal as Governor. Scalise won 75% of the vote against three opponents in the special election run-off. The big news of the day, however, was the upset win of State Representative Don Cazayoux (D) in the CD-6 special election. Cazayoux defeated former State Representative and newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins (R) by a 49% to 46% vote, with three Independents capturing the remainder. The CD-6 seat had been in GOP hands for over 30 years. Cazayoux -- a self-proclaimed centrist "Blue Dog Democrat" -- won despite a heavy barrage of Republicans TV ads and mailings trying to equate Cazayoux with "liberal" Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama/Jeremiah Wright and House Speaker "Nancy Pelosi and her San Francisco values." The same NRCC message also failed to sway conservative voters in the Mississippi special election primary last month.

P2008 - DEMS. Barack Obama narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton on Saturday's Guam primary. Voters in Guam cast ballots for delegate slates committed to a candidate. Delegates pledged to Obama won 2,264 votes, while Clinton's slate captured 2,257 votes. Obama's seven vote victory -- a virtual tie -- means that Obama and Clinton won two delegates apiece. There are also some new polls for Tuesday's primary contests:
INDIANA (Zogby): Obama - 43%, Clinton - 41%.
INDIANA (Insider Advantage): Clinton - 47%, Obama - 40%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Zogby): Obama - 48%, Clinton - 39%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Obama - 49%, Clinton - 40%.

GEORGIA. Candidate filing closed in Georgia. Click here to view the statewide and congressional candidate listings.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.05.08 | Permalink |

WEEKEND OPEN THREAD.

FREE SPEECH ZONE. Filing for Congress closed in Florida on Friday. Follow the link to check out who filed, as several hot November contests seem likely ... Louisiana holds congressional special election run-offs in CD-1 and CD-6. While the GOP is expected to easily keep the CD-1 seat, the Dems seem likely to score a pickup in CD-6 ... and John McCain's campaign senior advisor Charlie Black told the Chicago Tribune that McCain acting as his own VP selection committee. Nobody else -- staff or otherwise -- is purportedly involved in the process at this time.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.03.08 | Permalink |

FRIDAY NEWS UPDATE.

FORMER DNC CHAIR SWITCHES FROM CLINTON TO OBAMA; NEW IN, NC, OR POLLS.

P2008 - DEMS. Former DNC Chair Joe Andrew -- an Al Gore ally who served as the party's national chair during the Clinton Administration -- withdrew his endorsement of Hillary Clinton and endored Barack Obama on Thursday. Andrew said it was time for the nomination fight to end and for the party to unify behind Obama. Here are the latest primary polls:
INDIANA (WRTV-TV/TeleResearch): Clinton - 48%, Obama - 38%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Research 2000): Obama - 51%, Clinton - 44%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Mason-Dixon): Obama - 49%, Clinton - 42%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Insider Advantage): Clinton -44%, Obama - 42%.
OREGON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 50%, Clinton - 44%.

Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.02.08 | Permalink |

THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE.

A SUPER(-DELEGATE) DAY; NC GOV & US SEN POLLS; A "MAY DAY" HISTORY LESSON.

P2008 - DEMS. Several new superdelegate endorsements to announce. Three members of Congress -- Bruce Braley (D-IA), Lois Capps (D-CA) and Baron Hill (D-IN) -- endorsed Barack Obama. Congressman Ike Skelton (D-MO) and two non-elected official "supers" endorsed Hillary Clinton. The Wall Street Journal and The Politico both reported that nearly all of the 80+ uncommitted superdelegates remaining in Congress have actually picked sides and conveyed their future announcement plans to the respective campaigns. According to WSJ, a majority of the remaining superdelegates in Congress plan to endorse Obama. FYI: No new primary polls to report today.

NORTH CAROLINA. The latest WTVD-TV/SurveyUSA poll gives us a good snapshot of next week's primaries for US Senate and Governor. In the Dem primary for US Senate, State Senator Kay Hagan leads investment banker Jim Neal by a 38% to 17% vote, with all others in the low single-digits. The winner will face US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) in November. In the open gubernatorial race, both parties are seeing competitive contests. The Democrats: Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue - 45%, State Treasurer Richard Moore - 38%, Other - 2%. The Republicans: Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory - 36%, State Senator Fred Smith - 32%, former Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr - 7%, attorney Bill Graham - 5%. Governor Mike Easley (D) is term-limited.

HAPPY MAY DAY. Today was the original International Labor Day (or International Workers Day, depending upon the translation) -- the date selected by the international trade union movement in honor of the memory of Chicago's framed Haymarket martyrs -- but the date of the formal Labor Day in the US was later moved to the first weekend in September when May 1 become associated too closely with the Labor Day celebration around the globe by international socialists and communists.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.01.08 | Permalink |

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January 17-31, 2004
January 1-16, 2004
December 16-31, 2003
December 1-15, 2003
November 17-30, 2003

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POLITICAL BLOG ROLL:

KINDA NEUTRAL:
ABC News: The Note
CNN: Morning Grind
CQ Politics
Political Wire
MSNBC: First Read
CJR Daily
Rothenberg Pol. Report
LexisNexis: US Politics
Stateline.org
Governing.com
Political State Report
Hotline On Call
Hotline's Blogometer
Beltway Blog
WatchBlog
Lawmakers Blog
Centerfield Aggregator
Command Post
FactCheck.org
WSJ: Best of the Web
WSJ: Washington Wire
D.C.'s Political Report
2008 Political Perspective
Media Bistro
Larry Sabato: Crystal Ball
PressThink
Politics-Line
TheCapitol.Net: Blog
MyElectionAnalysis.com

DEM/LEFT:
DNC Blog
DCCC Blog
DailyKos
Lefty Blogs
Howard Dean/DFA
OurSenate.com
Frameshop
The Washington Note
Emerging Dem Majority
Think Progress
AmericaBlog.com
Amer Prospect: Tapped
Arianna Huffington
Al Franken
BAG News Notes
Eric Alterman
Senate Majority Project
FishBowl DC
Fired Up! America
TalkLeft
TNR: The Plank
The Raw Story
Blogging of the President
Joe Trippi
Swing State Project
Media Matters
Josh Marshall
Wonkette
MyDD
Working for Change
Crooks & Liars
Mathew Gross
Penndit
Progressive Dems: Blog
Atrios/Eschaton
Off the Kuff
Tom Tomorrow
Mother Jones
Jerry Springer
TruthOut
Dem Bloggers
Liberal Oasis
Penndit
Firedoglake
Good As You
AtariDemocrat
Henry Lewis
BuzzFlash
Brad Blog
Dean Nation
Louise Slaughter
TruthDig
Dem Underground
Jared Hall
Bad Attitudes
The American Street
District Blogs

GOP/RIGHT:
RNC (GOP.com)
Club for Growth
National Review: Corner
C-Log
Real Clear Politics
Andrew Sullivan
John Ellis
StoneZone
Mickey Kaus
Virginia Postrel
RedState.org
WSJ Opinion Journal
Free Republic
Instapundit
Drudge Report
Pajamas Media
Hugh Hewitt
Daniel Drezner
Daily Pundit
Bully Pulpit
Outside the Beltway
Little Green Footballs
World Mag Blog
Right Wing News
Volokh Conspiracy
Brothers Judd
David Frum
Mister Politics
Enter Stage Right
Right Wing News
PoliPundit
Power Line
Hedgehog Report
Right Voices
Booker Rising
Don Singleton
Save the GOP

OTHER:
ThirdPartyWatch.com
Centrist Coalition
Kn@ppster
Green Commons
News for Greens


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