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| BLOG ARCHIVE: MAY 1-15, 2006
BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. UTAH:
CONGRESSMAN CANNON LOSES AT CONVENTION, TO FACE PRIMARY. FLORIDA:
FEDERAL FILING CLOSES, HARRIS DRAWS 3 CHALLENGERS. NEVADA:
FILING CLOSES, LOTS OF CROWDED CONTESTS. WISCONSIN:
THOMPSON SKIPS GUV RACE, LOOKING AT TWO OTHERS. NEW
MESSAGE FROM RON: A CHANGE OF PLANS. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. CONGRESS:
NEW CORRUPTION PROBE TARGET. KENTUCKY:
GOVERNOR FLETCHER & EX-AIDE INDICTED. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. FLORIDA:
BENSE OUT, HARRIS TO BE GOP SENATE NOMINEE. TEXAS:
STRAYHORN, FRIEDMAN QUALIFY FOR GOVERNOR BALLOT. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. NEBRASKA:
PRIMARY RESULTS.
FREE
SPEECH ZONE. BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. NEBRASKA:
PRIMARY PREVIEW. WEST
VIRGINIA: PRIMARY PREVIEW.
MINNESOTA: DISTRICT CAUCUSES (CONTINUED).
CALIFORNIA: CD-50 SPECIAL ELECTION. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS.
MINNESOTA: DISTRICT CAUCUSES NARROW CONGRESSIONAL FIELDS. OHIO:
PRIMARY LOSER FILES COMPLAINT IN CD-13. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. A
MESSAGE FROM RON. FREE
SPEECH ZONE (AKA: DANA'S FIRST POSTING AS THE NEW SITE EDITOR) POLITICAL
QUICK TAKES. FREE
SPEECH ZONE: POLITICIANS ... HOT OR NOT (CONT.) LOUISIANA:
"I BRIBED CONGRESSMAN JEFFERSON," SAID TECH EXEC. FLORIDA:
JEB LOSES LEG FIGHTS, GOP MAJORITY LEADER DUMPED. PENNSYLVANIA:
SANTORUM UP, SWANN DOWN .... MAYBE.
SITE
OF THE DAY. FREE
SPEECH ZONE: POLITICIANS ... HOT OR NOT. OHIO:
SCHMIDT, REGULA, NEY SURVIVE PRIMARY CHALLENGES. INDIANA:
NO SURPRISES IN US HOUSE PRIMARIES. NORTH
CAROLINA: DITTO, NO SURPRISE HERE. CONNECTICUT:
RELL, LIEBERMAN STRONG. SITE
OF THE DAY. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. OHIO:
PRIMARY PREVIEW. INDIANA:
PRIMARY PREVIEW. NORTH
CAROLINA: PRIMARY PREVIEW. SITE
OF THE DAY. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. NEW
YORK: WELD SECURES NOVEMBER BALLOT SPOT. GEORGIA:
PRIMARY FILING CLOSES. OHIO:
NOT THE NEWS YOU WANT JUST BEFORE A PRIMARY.
PENNSYLVANIA:
THREE-WAY GOV RACE NUMBERS. DELAWARE:
TING WINS GOP ENDORSEMENTS FOR US SENATE. SITE
OF THE DAY.
|
BLOG
ARCHIVE:
POLITICAL BLOG ROLL: KINDA
NEUTRAL: DEM/LEFT: |
Congressman
Chris Cannon (R) unexpectedly placed second this weekend at his
District Republican Convention and was forced into a June 27 primary.
Candidates were required to score a super-majority of 60% to avoid
a primary. On the first ballot, bombastic former Congressman Merrill
Cook finished third and was eliminated. On the second ballot,
wealthy developer John Jacob won with 52%, followed by Cannon
at 48%. Jacob -- who espouses an immigration position similar
to the Frist/Tancredo line -- attacked Cannon as not being sufficiently
conservative and supporting amnesty for illegal immigrants. Cannon
gave a nuanced answer that didn't please many delegates: "We
have to turn off the the sound bites and the pretending that there's
an easy fix [to illegal immigration]." The CD-3 seat is safely
Republican, so the winner of the Cannon-Jacob primary should be
a safe bet for November. In CD-2, State Representative LaVar Christensen
easily won the GOP nomination with 84% of the convention vote
against two rivals. Christensen will next face Congressman Jim
Matheson (D) in November. Race rating: DEM Favored. There were
no nomination contests in CD-1.
Candidate
filing for all races closed on Friday, with lots of crowded contests.
In the open gubernatorial race, Congressman Jim Gibbons is a prohibitive
favorite in the GOP primary against Lieutenant Governor Lorraine
Hunt, State Senator Bob Beers, porn star Melody Damayo and retired
janitor Stan Lusak. As a porn actress, Damayo is better known
by the stage name of Mimi Miyagi. On the Democratic side, State
Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson
and liberal activist Leola McConnell are running. US Senator John
Ensign (R) and Presidential scion Jack Carter (D) both are expected
to easily win their primaries before meeting in November. In the
open CD-2 race, three heavyweight Republicans and a viable Democrat
filed. In CD-3, Congressman Jon Porter (R) drew a credible challenge
from former congressional aide Tessa Hafen (D), but Porter remains
favored. The conservative Independent American Party -- a state
affiliate of the Constitution Party -- impressively filed a complete
slate of candidates. Libertarians also filed for many offices,
and the Greens filed a candidate for Governor. 
Broward
County Court Judge here in South Florida. I received a great amount
of support from elected officials, labor leaders, community leaders
and others, and I collected a bunch of financial pledges -- and,
at least as of this weekend, it still appears reasonably likely
I would run unopposed. Clearly, 2006 appears likely to be my best
chance to reach the bench. However, I'm NOT going to run for judge
this year. As much as I would love to serve as a judge, my heart
tells me I cannot and should not leave the world of politics at
this crucial time. I have much to contribute to the political
process -- both in campaigns and here in this blog -- in helping
the Democrats regain control of our state and nation. I cannot
sit back and watch civil liberties and privacies eroded; to read
daily of the additional Americans tragically killed overseas in
a war were mislead into fighting; and to see our nation rapidly
slipping towards a reactionary future state that truly scares
me. I need to continue fighting this fight on the proverbial "barricades"
-- even if it means I may never get to realize my dream of someday
serving on the bench. If that is my fate, so be it. But, as it
says in the Bible, what will it profit a man to gain the whole
world but lose his own soul? I would always feel guilty if I walked
away from this fight for America's soul just for the personal
gain of landing a great job. I want to work to elect a Democratic
Governor here in Florida and a Democratic majority in Congress
this year. I want to work to elect 
MICHIGAN
- GOVERNOR: Billionaire businessman Dick DeVos (R) -
46%, Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) - 45%. (EPIC/MRA).
Lewis
investigation is an outgrowth of the investigation that started
with now-imprisoned former Congressman Duke Cunningham (R-CA).
Federal prosecutors have already "issued subpoenas in an
investigation into the relationship between Lewis and a Washington
lobbyist linked" to Cunningham. Lewis claimed he has no knowledge
the feds are investigating him. "For goodness sake, why would
they be doing that," he asked the Times. The lobbyist
at issue is former Congressman Bill Lowery (R-CA). Lowery served
in Congress from 1981-93. Lowery represented defense contractor
Brent Wilkes, an unindicted co-conspirator in the Cunningham case.
Some more details from the Times: "Wilkes and his companies
have given Lewis at least $60,000 in campaign contributions over
the years, making them among the lawmaker's largest contributors.
At the same time, Wilkes has paid Lowery's firm more than $160,000
in lobbying fees ... Lewis has earmarked at least $70 million
in federal funds for a mapping software company in Redlands. The
company, Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc., is one
of Lowery's largest clients and has paid more than $320,000 in
lobbying fees ... Investigators are said to be particularly interested
in the intermingling of Lewis' and Lowery's staffs and whether
it led to favorable treatment for Lowery's clients in securing
government contracts." Other Congressional corruption news: Indicted
Congresssman Tom DeLay (R-TX), who previously announced he would
resign from Congress on an unspecified date, picked June 9 as
his departure date.
special
grand jury investigating state hiring practices on Thursday indicted
Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) on three misdemeanor charges of conspiracy,
official misconduct and political discrimination.
Fletcher is the first sitting Kentucky Governor to ever be indicted.
Former Fletcher Cabinet official Sam Beverage was indicted on
a felony count of perjury, related to the investigation. State
newspaper are also reporting the grand jury also delivered 14
additional sealed indictments in the case to the presiding judge.
Some of the indictments may cover Fletcher aides -- already given
blanket pardons by Fletcher -- for any criminal acts committed
before he issued the pardons in August 2005. Fletcher did not
pardon himself last summer. The charges all relate to allegations
Fletcher and his aides violated the state's civil service protection
laws by hiring, firing, promoting and demoting lower-ranking state
employees based upon political affiliations. Fletcher says the
entire investigation is a political witchhunt led by Attorney
General Greg Stumbo (D). Stumbo is a likely candidate against
Fletcher in 2007. 
MINNESOTA
- GOVERNOR: Attorney General Mike Hatch (D) - 49%, Governor
Tim Pawlenty (R) - 39%. State Sen. Becky Lourey (D) - 43%, Pawlenty
- 40%. State Sen. Steve Kelley (D) - 43%, Pawlenty - 38%. (Rasmussen
Reports).
Congresswoman
Katherine Harris (R) as their nominee against US Senator Bill
Nelson (D). Governor Jeb Bush, the White House, and other prominent
GOP leaders failed twice in their attempts to recruit State House
Speaker Allan Bense into the primary against Harris. Months ago,
Bense backed away from the contest. In the past two weeks, Governor
Bush and others made public statements that Harris was unelectable
and Bense should reconsider. However, on Wednesday, Bense again
said he would not run against Harris. "My decision came down
to the fundamental question of whether I was willing to spend
the next six, 12 or possibly 18 years of my life away from my
family and my home serving Florida in the US Senate. After much
thought and prayer, I realized the answer to that question is
'no,'" explained Bense. With federal candidate filing in
the state closing Friday, Republicans must now put months of sniping
behind them and rally on behalf of a nominee they did not want.
MAINE-
GOVERNOR: Governor John Baldacci (D) - 44%, Ex-Congressman
Dave Emery (R) - 36%. Baldacci - 44%, State Sen. Peter Mills (R)
- 36%. Baldacci - 46%. State Sen. Chandler Woodcock (R) - 33%.
(Rasmussen Reports).
WEST
VIRGINIA: PRIMARY RESULTS.
Tom
Osborne started the race for Nebraska Governor as a heavy favorite.
He is facing incumbent Governor Dave Heineman in Tuesday's Republican
primary. Heineman as Lieutenant Governor moved up last year to
the big job when President Bush picked incumbent Governor Mike
Johanns (R) for a Cabinet spot. Heineman unexpectedly made the
primary very competitive, but news reports say Osborne remains
a slight favorite. Heineman is supported by US Senator Chuck Hagel,
the Farm Bureau, Nebraska Right to Life, and the NRA. Osborne
is endorsed by US Senator John McCain, several of the state's
largest labor unions, and the four biggest state newspapers. In
the US Senate race, multimillionaire investment executive Pete
Ricketts, ex-Attorney General Don Stenberg and ex-State Republican
Chair David Kramer are all competing for the Republican nomination
to face incumbent Ben Nelson (D) in November. Polls showed Stenberg
started the favorite in the primary, but Ricketts spent millions
from his pocket to close the gap. The other race of interest is
the Republican primary for Congress for the open CD-3 seat. Five
Republicans are competing in the primary. Democratic candidate
Scott Kleeb is unopposed.
Former
Congressman Brian Bilbray (R) appears stronger this week. Businessman
Eric Roach, his leading Republican primary opponent, withdrew
from the race this week. Roach had continued running radio spots
and sending campaign mailings in the few weeks since the special
election primary. Bilbray faces college professor Francine Busby
(D) on June 6 for the vacant seat.
IOWA
- GOVERNOR: Secretary of State Chet Culver (D) - 46%,
Congressman Jim Nussle (R) - 40%. Nussle 43%, Ex-State Economic
Development Director Mike Blouin (D) - 41%. Nussle - 44%, State
Representative Ed Fallon (D) - 36%. (Rasmussen).
Kennedy
(D-RI) was involved in a 3:00 am auto accident two blocks from
the Capitol. Kennedy reportedly crashed his car into a barrier,
staggered while walking around, and told police he was rushing
to get to "a vote." According to the Providence
Journal, Capitol Police officers complained that higher ranking
officials interfered with their investigation by whisking Kennedy
home without administering a sobriety test. Kennedy denied alcohol
was a contributing factor in the crash, suggesting two sleep medications
he was taking may have caused the accident ... Congresswoman Katherine
Harris (R-FL) responded to suggestions from the White House and
Governor Bush via a new TV spot she launched this week. In the
ad -- and directly responding to her GOP critics who want her
to get out of the race before the May 12 filing deadline -- Harris
said she's not a quitter. "I never give up and I never give
in," vows Harris in the spot. Party leaders would like State
House Speaker Allan Bense (R) to jump into the race, but he doesn't
want to do so unless Harris first exits the contest ... Finally,
here's some news on a level of races I don't usually cover (but
this explains the brevity of today's report): County Court Judge.
If HB-113 is signed into Florida law in its current form of creating
six new elected judgeships for Broward County, I'm seriously thinking
of running for County Court Judge. Running for a County Court
seat seems a wiser idea, as I'm already on record (repeatedly)
as opposing the death penalty (and that would get me disqualified
from hearing any capital cases). I'll keep you apprised when I
make a decision (and, if I do, anything you guys could
do to generously support my non-partisan judicial campaign would
be greatly appreciated). Stay tuned.
Yesterday's
announcement that we plan to again publish our popular online
polls to determine the hottest looking woman and man in US politics
drew lots of comments. So much so that I'm continuing the thread
here (consider it Part 2) as I prepare to post the first part
-- the men -- next week. Before we create our short-list of then
for the contest, submit any names you'd like. The rules: the "candidates"
in the poll must be either elected officials or 2006/08 candidates
for
elective office. Our 2004 winners -- Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth
(
argued
the idea was too costly. The biggest defeat, however, came this
week when the State Senate rejected by one vote Jeb's attempt
to revise his beloved school vouchers program. A court had struck
down the voucher program, and the new proposal was designed to
withstand a new legal challenge. The proposals were defeated when
State Senate Majority Leader Alex Villalobos (R) and three other
GOP Senators joined with the Democrats to kill Jeb's proposal.
Minutes after the voucher vote, State Senate President Tom Lee
(R) fired Villalobos as Majority Leader for working against him.
"My legacy, whatever it is, was not going to be that I helped
bring down public education in the state of Florida. And if I
have to lose my position in the Senate because of that, then that's
fine. And if I don't get to come back as a senator, then that's
fine, too. I will not sell my soul or sell my vote," said
Villalobos to the Miami Herald. Villalobos, a GOP centrist,
is married to a public school teacher. Villalobos was also supposed
to be the next Senate President, but his GOP colleagues dumped
him as President-Designate in a coup earlier this year. "This
wasn't a vote about school choice. Trust me. It was about people's
feelings being hurt, it was about personal pride, it's about a
dysfunctional Republican caucus. That's what it's about,"
complained Jeb. "I guess you're not allowed to vote your
conscience up here. You're only supposed to do what people tell
you. I'm sick of it. We have constituents back home. We represent
them," responded State Representative Evelyn Lynn (R) to
the Herald. Jeb is now reportedly trying to convince
a State House member to challenge Villalobos in this year's GOP
primary.
GAY
MARRIAGE BAN: "SILLY" SAYS EX-GOP US SENATOR.
It's
rapidly approaching that time again when Politics1 briefly becomes
utterly superficial, flippant and puckish ... we morph into the
People magazine of US politics ... yup, time again for
our popular online polls to determine the hottest looking woman
and man in US politics. The rules: the "candidates"
in the poll must be either elected officials or 2006/08 candidates
for
elective office. Our 2004 winners -- Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth
(
The
two men spent millions on costly TV attack spots that trashed
each other. Petro congratulated Blackwell for running a "masterful
campaign" but did not yet offer him an endorsement. Race
rating: Leans DEM. US SENATE: In the US Senate
race, incumbent Mike DeWine (R) won renomination with 72% and
Congressman Sherrod Brown (D) won his primary with 78% of the
vote. Race rating: Leans GOP. CONGRESS: In CD-2,
gaffe-prone Congresswoman Jean Schmidt fended off the GOP primary
challenge from social conservative former Congressman Bob McEwen
by a 48% to 42% vote. Schmidt is pretty safe in November in this
GOP district. In the open CD-4 contest, State
Senator Jim Jordan won the GOP primary over banker Frank Guglielmi
by a 51% to 30% vote, with the remainder split among four others.
The seat is reliably Republican, so Jordan can start planning
his move to Washington. In CD-6, the NRCC ran
TV spots which unsuccessfully tried to derail the primary write-in
campaign of State Senator Charlie Wilson (D). It didn't make a
difference, as Wilson won the Dem primary on write-in votes with
66% against two opponents. State House Speaker Pro Tempore Chuck
Blasdel unimpressively won the GOP primary with 49% against three
nominal foes. Race rating: Leans DEM. In the open CD-13
race, eight Democrats and six Republicans ran for this
Dem-leaning seat. 
Former
State Representative Betty Sutton captured by the Democratic nomination
with 31%, followed by shopping mall heiress Capri Cafaro at 25%,
former Congressman Tom Sawyer at 22%, and five others trailed
behind. On the GOP side, Lorain Mayor Craig Fortin won the primary
by a 15-point margin over his nearest opponent. Race rating: DEM
Favored. In CD-18, Congressman Bob Ney (R) won
renomination in the face of a looming corruption indictment over
little-known GOP challenger James Harris by a 68% to 32% vote.
On the Democratic side, Dover Law Director Zach Space defeated
Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer by a 38% to 26% vote. The Ney-Space
race will be a hot race to watch in November. Race rating: Leans
GOP. CD-16 was a race not on anyone's radar:
17-term Congressman Ralph Regula's GOP primary, however, was surprisingly
close. At one point, with what appeared to be all votes counted,
the 81-year-old Regula held a bare 205 vote lead over 29-year-old
Ashland County Commissioner Matt Miller. Later in the evening,
the numbers changed to reflect quite a bit more votes. The revised
totals showed Regula winning by a 58% to 42% vote. THE
TAFT TAINT: State Treasurer Jennette Bradley (R), who
had the misfortune of being Governor Bob Taft's Lieutenant Governor
runningmate before Taft appointed her Treasurer two years ago,
lost her GOP primary to Ashtabula County Auditor Sandra O'Brien
by a 52% to 48% vote.
Bradley was not linked to any of Taft's scandals, but the mere
taint of the former close connection to the unpopular Taft was
hard for Bradley to overcome even among Republican voters.
Buckeye
State on Tuesday is the open GOP primary for Governor. Attorney
General Jim Petro and Secretary of State Ken Blackwell have been
slugging it out and spending millions on costly TV attack spots
that accuse each other of dishonesty, hypocracy, corruption, etc.
Petro is seen as more moderate than Blackwell and the one who
was once more closely aligned with hated incumbent Governor Bob
Taft (R). While the centrist record could help Petro in a general
contest, the latter reason is why Blackwell will defeat Petro
in the primary, likely by a margin of at least 15-points. The
real questions are how long it will take for Petro to endorse
Blackwell and how tepid will his endorsement sound. On the Democratic
side, Congressman Ted Strickland will win the gubernatorial primary
in a landslide -- and start the general election contest as the
frontrunner and with lots of money still in the bank. US
SENATE: In the US Senate race, incumbent Mike DeWine
(R) and Congressman Sherrod Brown (D) will easily win their respective
primaries by wide margins. FYI, in related news, the latest Cleveland
Plain Dealer poll shows DeWine leading Brown by a vote of
47% to 36%. CONGRESS: There are lots of good
congressional primaries to watch here on Tuesday. In CD-2,
gaffe-prone Congresswoman Jean Schmidt will defeat social conservative
former 
Congressman
Bob McEwen by several points in the GOP primary. McEwen spent
the last decade as a lobbyist in DC, and -- even though Bob and
I are personal friends (he's very bright, but we agree on almost
nothing) -- this is just not the year where having been a DC lobbyist
will be seen as a "reform" message by voters. The Dem
primary doesn't matter much as CD-2 is a heavily Republican district.
In the open CD-4 contest, the winner of the GOP primary will be
the next Congressman. Wealthy banker Frank Guglielmi spent freely
from his own pocket and will perform well, but popular State Senator
Jim Jordan is still expected to score a win in the GOP primary.
In CD-6, the NRCC ran a smart psy-ops campaign
here: airing TV spots attacking weak candidate Bob Carr (D) so
as to build up his name ID and street cred with Dem primary voters.
The reason: they're hoping he outperforms State Senator Charlie
Wilson, who was forced to run a write-in campaign for Democratic
nomination when he fell seven petition signatures short of qualifying
for the primary ballot. The DCCC is solidly behind Wilson and
he should be able to overcome the extra hurdles required to win
the primary. State House Speaker Pro Tempore Chuck Blasdel should
win the GOP primary. In the open CD-13 race,
eight Democrats and six Republicans are running for this Dem-leaning
seat. 
Perdue
(R) faces nominal primary opposition from Confederate heritage
activist Ray McBerry. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor
Mark Taylor and Secretary of State Cathy Cox will compete for
the right to face Perdue in November. Retiree Mac McCarley is
also running in the Dem primary. Race rating: GOP Favored. STATEWIDE
RACES: Former Christian Coalition Executive Director
Ralph Reed (R) is one of two Republicans and five Dems running
for Lieutenant Governor. Former Congresswoman Denise Majette (D)
filed as a candidate against incumbent State School Superintendent
Kathy Cox (R). And, yes, that was not a typo: two of the current
statewide elected officials are named Cathy Cox and Kathy Cox.
CONGRESS:
In the US House races -- and keep in mind the districts were redrawn
again for the 2006 elections -- voters will see a competitive
Dem primary in CD-4 and hotly contested general election races
in CD-8 and CD-12. In CD-4, always controversial Congresswoman
Cynthia McKinney is facing an aggressive Dem primary challenge
from DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson and one other hopeful.
The district is solidly Democratic, so the winner of the McKinney-Johnson
primary is safe in November. In CD-8, former Congressman Mac Collins
(R) filed to run against incumbent Congressman Jim Marshall (D).
Collins is making a comeback after after losing the GOP primary
for US Senate in 2004. Race rating: Leans Dem. Voters in CD-12
will see a rematch, as former Congressman Max Burns (R) seeks
to reclaim his old seat from Congressman John Barrow (D), who
defeated him last election. Race rating: Leans Dem. Congressman
John Lewis (D) is the only federal incumbent not facing any major
party opposition.
CALIFORNIA:
ANGELIDES WINS DEM CONVO ENDORSEMENT FOR GOV.
FREE
SPEECH ZONE. 