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| BLOG ARCHIVE: MARCH 16-31, 2006
CALIFORNIA.
What only two years ago seemed impossible in CD-50 now
seems within reach for retired professor Francine Busby (D). As
the '04 Dem nominee, Busby lost to now-imprisoned former Congressman
Duke Cunningham by a 58% to 37% vote. With the special election
for Cunningham's vacant seat less than two weeks away, another
independent poll shows Busby inching closer to the 50% mark required
for an outright win in the crowded, multi-party April 11 primary.
The new KGTV-TV/SurveyUSA poll places Busby at 45% -- far ahead
of any of her 17 opponents. Wealthy businessman Eric Roach (R)
was second with 14%, followed by former State Assemblyman Howard
Kaloogian (R) at 12%, former Congressman Brian Bilbray (R) had
10%, State Senator Bill Morrow (R) and manufacturing executive
Alan Uke (R) had 5% apiece, and a combined total of 6% back other
candidates. Democrats have solidly rallied behind Busby, while
the Republicans are engaged in a very nasty, divisive battle pitting
social conservative candidates versus GOP centrist hopefuls. Busby,
a local school board member, is positioning herself as a political
moderate and an alternative to a culture of corruption in DC.
While it still seems highly unlikely Busby will be able to secure
an absolute majority in the primary, she is certain to finish
far ahead of the rest of the field. If no one secures a majority,
a run-off will take place June 6.
FLORIDA.
Strategic Vision -- a GOP polling firm -- has a new poll
out in the US Senate race. No surprises, though. Even the SV poll
shows US Senator Bill Nelson (D) destroying Congresswoman Katherine
Harris (R) by a 56% to 28% vote. In the gubernatorial race, the
poll showed Attorney General Charlie Crist leading State CFO Tom
Gallagher in the GOP contest by a 48% to 36% vote. On the Dem
side, Congressman Jim Davis leads State Senator Rod Smith by a
41% to 19% vote. In general election match-ups, Crist led Davis
by a 47% to 38% vote ... and Gallagher led Davis by a 46% to 39%
vote. SOUTH
CAROLINA. Primary filing closed on Thursday, with all
statewide and congressional incumbents drawing challengers. Governor
Mark Sanford (R) will face physician Oscar Lovelace in the GOP
primary. State Senator Tommy Moore, Florence Mayor Frank Willis
and attorney Dennis Aughtry are competing for the Dem nod. Race
rating: Sanford is safe. Two races worth watching are the GOP
primary for Lieutenant Governor and the CD-5 congressional race.
Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer (R) faces a tough primary challenge
from businessman Mike Campbell, son of the late Governor Carroll
Campbell. Former State Board of Education Member Henry Jordan
is also competing in the GOP primary. In CD-4, Congressman John
Spratt (D) will face a competitive general election from State
Representative Ralph Norman (R). Race rating: Dem Favored. Click
here to view all of the South Carolina candidates. SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
BlueJersey.net
-- a great Dem blog covering NJ politics. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. TGIF.
CONGRESSIONAL
FOLLIES. A US Court of Appeals upheld against Congressman
Jim McDermott (D-WA) the jury award of $700,000 in damages to
House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH). Boehner was awarded
the money after he sued McDermott for leaking to reporters a recording
of one of Boehner's illegally intercepted cell phone calls. Boehner
had originally offered the settle the matter in exchange for McDermott
making a $10,000 donation to a charity, but the offer was rejected
... Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) is apparently the only
Republican on Capitol Hill who fondly remembers convicted lobbyist
Jack Abramoff. Despite the huge amount of money Abramoff spread
around the Hill in recent years, Rohrabacher was the only Congressional
incumbent who wrote a character letter in support of Abramoff
at this week's sentencing hearing. Rohrabacher said that he didn't
condone Abramoff's bad acts, but thought there should also be
focus on "the good" he said Abramoff did in the past
... Finally, we have the story of Congressional pugilist Cynthia
McKinney (D-GA). McKinney was rushing into a House Office Building
on Wednesday. Although she was purportedly wearing her Member
of Congress pin, a Capitol Police Officer failed to recognize
the controversial McKinney as she rushed past and skipped the
metal detector. Members are not required to pass through them.
The officer chased after her, grabbing McKinney by the arm. McKinney
then reportedly swung around and punched the officer in the chest.
No charges were filed. ALABAMA.
You've got to MICHIGAN.
Our prize for the funniest quote of the day (and possibly
of the week and the month) goes to Grand Rapids School Board Member
Jim Rinck (D). He announced this week his plans to challenge six-term
Congressman Vern Ehlers (R) in the heavily GOP CD-3 district.
"Our Congressman is the smartest person in the district,
and we might be the only place in the country that can say that.
But he falls somewhat short on the charisma meter. And it might
take a somewhat less intelligent -- although much noisier -- person
to get some things done for this district," declared Rinck
to the Grand Rapids Press. Ehlers, 72, is Chair of the
House Administration Committee. SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
the
Genocide Intervention Network -- lots of
important information about the largely ignored humanitarian crisis
in Darfur, Sudan. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. What's on your mind. ILLINOIS.
In a surprise move, WHITE
HOUSE. Out with the old ... and in with the equally old.
OUT: White House Chief of Staff Andy Card, who resigned under
pressure to let the President "inject fresh blood into his
White House staff" (note: that quote comes from CNN). IN:
The new Chief of Staff is OMB Director Josh Bolton -- who has
served in the Bush Administration since January 20, 2001 (rendering
a new meaning to the term "fresh blood"). And, before
that, the pragmatic Bolton worked on the Bush campaign from 1999-2001.
Bolton is closely aligned with the dominant Cheney-Rove leadership
in the White House, likely presaging that any further staff shake-up
will signify relatively no change in either substance nor style.
VIRGINIA.
US Senator George Allen (R) looks well on his way to
winning re-election, setting the stage for his expected 2008 Presidential
bid. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Allen handily defeating
either of his Democratic challengers. Allen leads technology executive
Harris Miller (D) -- former Governor Mark Warner's endorsed candidate
-- by a vote of 56% to 27%. Allen also leads former Reagan Administration
Navy Secretary and author James Webb (D) by a 54% to 30% vote.
SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
the Pennsylvania
House Republican Caucus -- functional, content depth
and clean design.. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Go. GEORGIA.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Governor Sonny
Perdue (R) is rapidly losing his numerical advantage. Last month,
Perdue held leads of 20-points over either Secretary of State
Cathy Cox (D) or Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor (D). The new
numbers: Perdue-49%, Cox-41% ... and Perdue-51%, Taylor-41%. Political
pundits are already attributing Perdue's decline to the steady
stream of news articles in recent weeks that closely link GOP
Lieutenant Governor candidate and former Christian Coalition executive
director Ralph Reed with corrupt DC lobbyist Jack Abramoff. "The
Democrats, radical left, and dominant media have made numerous
unfair personal attacks against Ralph," claims Reed's campaign.
Professor Marvin Olasky -- the close associate of President Bush
who conceived the "compassionate conservative" concept
-- said Reed "has damaged Christian political work by confirming
for some the stereotype that evangelicals are easily manipulated
and that evangelical leaders use moral issues to line their own
pockets." Some Republican activists worry Reed's continued
presence on the statewide GOP ticket could potentially doom Perdue
to an upset loss. Race rating: GOP Favored (but on the verge of
slipping into the "Leans GOP" category). TEXAS.
MICHIGAN.
According to a new Rasmussen Reports poll, Governor Jennifer
Granholm (D) has seen her lead evaporate. The new number s show
Granholm locked in a tie with conservative billionaire Dick DeVos
(R), with each holding 44% apiece. IDAHO.
First Lady Patricia Kempthorne (R) has a plan to stay
in Idaho if her husband Governor Dirk Kempthorne (R) returns to
DC as President Bush's next Interior Secretary. And, no, it doesn't
involve divorce. The First Lady openly asked Lieutenant Governor
Jim Risch (R) to select her as his interim Lieutenant Governor
once he gets promoted to Governor following Kempthorne's expected
Cabinet confirmation. "I'm not a campaigner, [so an appointment]
is a good fit," she explained. Risch will serve as Governor
until January 2007, and his selection for Lt Gov will serve for
the same tenure. Risch is currently a candidate for reelection,
despite his impending promotion. Risch was noncommittal about
the proposal. Even if she is not selected, the First Lady says
she would stay in Idaho while her husband serves in Washington. SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
Bob
Shamansky for Congress (D-OH) -- clean design, lots
of content, good use of interactive resources. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. I was at a classical music performance Monday
night (Michael Tilson Thomas conducting Miami's New World Symphony).
The first half consisted of what could politely be described as
"experimental" choices: a discordant, ugly and jerky-paced
six-part work by an Austrian Nazi composer (hey, that's how the
guy was described in the program) and Gustav Mahler's dreadful
Songs on the Death of Children. A simple warning -- one
I knew but had clearly forgotten -- "experimental" is
simply artsy-lingo for "really bad." MONDAY NEWS UPDATE.
CONRESS.
Time magazine is reporting "top strategists
of both parties say privately the Republicans would probably lose
the 15 seats they need to keep control of the House" and
may also lose control of the US Senate. Former House Speaker Newt
Gingrich (R-GA) -- the architect of the 1994 GOP takeover -- agrees.
Gingrich said if he was leading the Dems he'd be using a two word
slogan to sum up all the problems in Washington: "Had Enough?"
And, speaking of the House, CQPolitics.com noted that seven self-imposed
congressional term limits are up this year -- and all seven incumbents
are breaking their previous pledges to run again in 2006. The
seven who are breaking their promises: Barbara Cubin (R-WY), Phil
English (R-PA), Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Tim Johnson (R-IL), Ric Keller
(R-FL), Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ), Mark Souder (R-IN) and Zach Wamp
(R-TN). OHIO.
A ILLINOIS.
State Senator James Meeks (D) is threatening to jump
into the gubernatorial contest as an Independent -- and he is
doing so knowing his candidacy would likely draw votes away from
embattled Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) in the black community.
The move is a ploy by Meeks and some of the other members of the
Illinois Legislative Black Caucus to force Blagojevich withdraw
his "no new taxes" pledge for his second term. Meeks
believes the pledge would block any real increase in educational
funding. P2008.
A few weeks ago, we introduced you to the gadfly GOP
Presidential candidate who calls himself Michael
Jesus Archangel. In what must be a setback to the Archangel's
divine White House plans, he may not exactly be able to spend
much time on the 2008 campaign trail. Here's why: he was arrested
last week in Michigan on attempted murder and other felony charges.
A good samaritan saw the candidate on the side of the road, after
Archangel's car broke down. On the ride into town, Archangel began
to rant about Satan, angels and communists -- and then he threatened
to kill the man who stopped to help him. When the man stopped
his car to get help, Archangel jumped out and allegedly pulled
a knife on another man. He also threatened a police officer and
had to be forcible restrained. Archangel's court-appointed lawyer
has asked for a psychological evaluation for her client. Crawford
County Sheriff Kirk Wakefield doesn't believe any formal evaluation
is needed. "As a matter of fact, he is crazy. Anyone in their
right mind can see that ... He doesn't need to be in jail. A jail
is not the place for crazy people," said Wakefield, who supports
diverting Archangel into a secure mental treatment facility. SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
New
Jersey for Feingold -- a great grassroots "draft"
site. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Did anyone catch that Congresswoman Katherine
Harris (R-FL) has already backpeddled from her "I'm going
to spend the entire inheritance I got from my father" promise
she made on nationwide TV a week ago? Flaky, but true. "It
is my understanding from her statements that she does not plan
to use inherited money on the campaign -- rather, money from liquidating
her personal assets, which she says total $10 million," said
Harris' spokeswoman. Other newspaper reports say Ed Rollins, Adam
Goodman and the remainder of the other political consultants she's
used since the start of her career are planning to bail over the
next week. Just bizarre. MONTANA.
Filing closed in Montana on Thursday for Democratic,
Republican and Libertarian candidates. Despite a stream of rumors
that embattled US Senator Conrad US
SENATE. SurveyUSA completed another round of national
polling on approval ratings of the 100 US Senators. Five Senators
top the list with approval ratings of 70% or better. Senator Susan
Collins (R-ME) and Kent Conrad (D-ND) tied for first with 72%
approval ratings. The other three at the top are Olympia Snowe
(R-ME), Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Barack Obama (D-IL). Five Senators
also finished at the bottom of the ratings with approval ratings
of under 45%. Scoring dead last -- with an approval rating of
only 38% -- was Conrad Burns (R-MT). Rounding out the worst list
were Jim Bunning (R-KY), Rick Santorum (R-PA), Mel Martinez (R-FL)
and John Cornyn (R-TX). Of the top and bottom groups, five face
voters this year: Conrad, Snowe, Nelson, Burns and Santorum. CALIFORNIA.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll is out on the gubernatorial
race -- and the contest is virtual tie. State Treasurer Phil Angelides
(D) and State Comptroller Steve Westly (D) each led Governor Arnold
Schwarzenegger (R) by a vote of 45% to 44%. Westly trailed by
five points in the last poll, while Angelides held a similar lead
in February. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. TGIF. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. The Dems need to oust incumbent Congressmen
like Clay Shaw (R-FL), Vito Fosella (R-NY), Tom DeLay (R-TX),
Bob Ney (R-OH) and others if they are to have any shot at retaking
control of the House, but is this Dem goal even remotely realistic
... did you check out the anti-Bill Frist ad paid for by the DSCC
on our Tennessee page ... Congresswoman Katherine
Harris (R-FL) promises to spend everything she owns in her uphill
Senate campaign ... the NH State House defeats a proposed law
to ban gay marriage by a 207-125 vote ... or discuss anything
else you'd like to chat about. This is one of those days when
-- after a really long day at work -- I'm just too tired to write
much. Thus, the ball is in your court until tomorrow. ILLINOIS.
P2008.
Not that it was any surprise, but US Senator Joe Biden
(D-DE) yet again confirmed he plans to run for President in 2008.
A South Carolina newspaper quoted him as saying "My intention
is to run" -- but we have to presume that is a mere summary
was his comments. Based upon his tendency to talk (and talk),
Biden probably took about 70 minutes to explain what he meant
by those five words. Meanwhile, visiting New Hampshire, US Senator
Chuck Hagel (R-NE) told an audience "I'm not a Presidential
candidate [now], but I may be." NORTH
CAROLINA. Democats lost one of their highly-touted Congressional
challengers on Tuesday. Iraq War veteran Tim Dunn (D) -- an attorney
and USMC Reserve Lieutenant Colonel -- ended his campaign against
Congressman Robin Hayes (R). Dunn said family obligations were
the reason for the withdrawal, although his fundraising had lagged
far behind the incumbent. Hayes was viewed as vulnerable because
of his vote in support of CAFTA, the free trade deal highly unpopular
in the textile mill-laden district. With Dunn out of the race,
we're moving it from "GOP Favored" to "Safe GOP." SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
the Conrad
Burns for US Senate (R-MT) -- well-designed site
from this embattled incumbent. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Howard Dean generously spent over two hours
of his time at the Broward County reception Tuesday evening, discussing
the party's 2006 strategy for an audience of around 30 folks active
in Democratic politics and fundraising. Chatting with the people
there -- most of whom were Dean or Kerry supporters in the 2004
primary season -- I saw how fragmented the base is with the wide
choice of P2008 candidates. Activists there expressed support
for Warner, Bayh, Feingold, Biden, and Hillary -- a few were even
holding out for a change of mind by Al Gore -- but none mentioned
Richardson, Edwards, Clark, or Vilsack, or said they wanted a
second Kerry run. MONTANA.
Polling ILLINOIS.
Tuesday is primary day in Illinois. Look for Governor
Rod Blagojevich (D) to easily win his renomination primary. State
Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka is expected to win the GOP nomination
to face Blagojevich in November -- although she has faced a spirited,
bitter primary challenge from conservative businessman Jim Oberweis.
Congressional primaries worth watching on Tuesday are the Democratic
primary in CD-6 and the GOP primary in CD-8. And, for humor value,
frequent candidate Ray "Spanky the Clown" Wardingly
is facing neo-Nazi Arthur Jones in the GOP primary for Congress
in CD-3 -- with the winner earning the right to lose by a landslide
in November. Purely for the unintended humor, be sure to check
out Jones' lengthy
and bizarre rant against the Republican Party leadership,
Wardingly and the Jews. NEW
JERSEY. The latest Quinnipiac University poll continues
to show US Senator Bob Menendez (D) locked in a tight contest
with gubernatorial scion and State Senator Tom Kean Jr. (R). The
numbers: Menendez-40%, Kean-36%. SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
the Drug
Policy Alliance. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Howard Dean visits Broward County on Tuesday
evening. NEW
YORK. On Friday, 12-term centrist Congressman MINNESOTA.
On Saturday, Congressman IDAHO.
Candidate filing -- including for third parties -- ended
in Idaho on Friday. Although Congressman
Butch Otter faces three minor opponents in the GOP gubernatorial
primary, he remains a very heavy favorite to win the open seat
in November. Newspaper publisher Jerry Brady must defeat a nominal
opponent in the Democratic primary before he gets to face Otter.
Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch (R) -- who could find himself elevated
to Governor very soon if retiring Governor Dirk Kempthorne is
confirmed as the new US Interior Secretary -- filed to run for
reelection. Former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D) filed to run
against Risch. Six Republicans, two Dems and three others filed
to run for Otter's open CD-1 seat. The district is heavily Republican,
so the winner of the primary is expected to win the seat in the
general election. IOWA.
Primary filing also closed in the Iowa.
While Congressman Jim Nussle is unopposed for the GOP nomination
for Governor, the Dems will see a very SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
Iraq
and Afghanistan Veterans of America PAC. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. A brief movie review. I saw V
for Vendetta on FREE
SPEECH ZONE. They're dropping like flies. Two more veteran
Congressmen are retiring (and, unlike Congressman Elton Gallegly's
aborted retirement fiasco earlier this week, these two guys actually
know how to retire without making fools of themselves). On Friday,
12-term Congressman Sherwood Boehlert (R-NY) announced he would
not seek reelection. On Saturday, Congressman Martin Olav Sabo
(D-MN) is scheduled to announce he will not seek re-election this
year to a 15th term. The demographics of Boehlert's marginal GOP
district could produce a competitive race -- particularly if a
social conservative, versus a Boehlert-style GOP centrist, wins
the Republican nomination. Sabo's district is safely Democratic.
More on both of these open seat races in Monday's report. QUICK
TAKES. I've been in Cadastral
Mapping class all week related to my work as General Counsel
in the Property Appraiser's office. The test is Friday morning
so I'm spending Thursday night studying. Thus, a "snapshot
approach" to the day's political news ... President Bush
on THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE. MAINE.
Primary filing closed in Maine
on Wednesday. Governor CALIFORNIA.
It's a miracle! Congressman Elton Gallegly (R) -- less
than a week after completely f***ing up his surprise retirement
scheme due to an alleged "health concern" -- held a
press conference Wednesday to announce he has a "clean bill
of health" and will "aggressively" run for one
last term in 2006. Gallegly won't disclose the nature of the purported
medical problem, but now says he is "100%" and "there
is no catastrophic [medical] issue that we have to deal with."
President Bush and the House GOP Leadership both pressed Gallegly
to run again to keep the seat safely in GOP hands. After five
days of stumbling, Gallegly is back in the race. Minister Jill
Martinez (D) and attorney Michael Tenenbaum (R) are both challenging
Gallegly this year.
UTAH.
Former CD-2 Congressman Merrill Cook (R) -- a multimillionaire
businessman, perennial candidate and bombastic personality --
unexpectedly jumped into the CD-3 race against Congressman Chris
Cannon (R). Cannon and Cook had a hostile relationship while the
two served together in Congress -- Cannon openly supported the
GOP primary opponent who defeated Cook for renomination in 2000.
Cook supports a Tancredo-like crackdown on illegal immigration
and opposes free trade policies, and says Cannon is wrong on these
issues. Cook has very deep pockets, but will have a tough time
derailing Cannon. Wealthy developer John Jacob (R), attorney Christian
Burridge (D) and Phil Hallman (Libertarian) are also running. SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
WesPAC,
the official site of retired General Wes Clark. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Your turn. (See, I almost got through
a whole day without mentioning US Senator Russ Feingold. Almost.) |
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PENNSYLVANIA.
A new IssuesPA/Pew/Princeton Research poll shows former
pro football player Lynn Swann (R) taking the lead Governor Ed
Rendell (D). Swann scored 35%, Rendell scored 29%, 2% backed others,
and a whopping 34% remained undecided. Rendell ran strongest in
Philadelphia, leading Swann there by a 60% to 12% vote. Swann
was strongest in south-central Pennsylvania, leading the incumbent
there by a 46% to 13% vo
WISCONSIN.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows the gubernatorial
contest continues to remain very close. Governor Jim Doyle (D)
now leads Congressman Mark Green (R) by a vote of 45% to 40%.
Doyle led by 7-points in the same poll two months ago.
give
ousted State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) credit
for ... umm ... exposing a commie cow conspiracy. Campaigning
for Governor this week, the former "Ten Commandments Judge"
declared that a proposed federal program to track livestock in
order to deter the spread of mad cow disease was "more identifiable
with communism than free enterprise." Moore went on to suggest
he was highly skeptical of reports that an Alabama cow was found
infected last week with the disease, claiming the timing of the
announcement appeared curiously linked to Capitol Hill debate
on the proposal. Alabama State Veterinarian Tony Frazier quickly
ridiculed Moore, saying he has the infected carcass in his state
lab. "To insinuate that it's made up is fanatical,"
said Frazier to the AP. Recent polls show Moore slipping further
behind in his GOP primary challenge of Governor Bob Riley.
Congressman
Lane Evans (D) announced he was withdrawing from his race for
re-election because of deteriorating health. Evans, 54, was first
diagnosed with Parkinson's Disease in 1995 and disclosed the condition
publicly in 1998. "This is a tough day for me ... the time
needed to address my health makes it difficult to wage a campaign
and carry out my work as representative ... I will return soon
and to the best of my ability complete the important work of this
term. Semper fi.," said Evans, a Marine Corps veteran. A
rapid decline in his health caused Evans to miss all House votes
and committee meetings since mid-February. Evans was first elected
to Congress in 1982, when he captured a GOP seat in an upset.
He had already won renomination without opposition this year,
meaning the district's Democratic Party leadership will select
a replacement nominee. State Senator Mike Jacobs is rumored to
be the favorite to replace Evans as the Dem nominee. Former local
TV news anchor Andrea Zinga -- who lost to Evans in 2004 by a
22-point margin -- is again the GOP nominee. Until a nominee is
selected, we're moving this race from "Dem Favored"
to "Leans Dem."
MISSOURI.
Filing closed on Tuesday for the state's August 8 primary.
In the US Senate race, incumbent Jim Talent (R) drew four minor
opponents and challenger State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) two
unknowns in her primary. The real contest will be the hotly competitive
Talent-McCaskill race in November. Because of the state's easy
filing requirements, every Congressional incumbent drew opponents
-- and some drew numerous foes. House Majority Whip Roy Blunt
(R) drew challenges -- albeit nominal -- from three Republicans,
three Democrats, and a Libertarian. 
State
Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorne (Independent) filed suit
against Secretary of State Roger Williams (R), alleging his office
is placing "unlawful roadblocks" to derail her gubernatorial
campaign from qualifying for the November ballot. Williams is
a political appointee of Governor Rick Perry (R), Strayhorne's
main opponent. Strayhorne says that the Secretary of State's office
has refused to either validate the count on her candidacy petitions
as they are submitted or use statistical sampling to set a running
tally of valid signatures collected. Williams wants to have Strayhorne
-- and singer/writer Kinky Friedman (Independent) -- submit all
the signatures they each believe is sufficient and then validate
the totals once the deadline for submitting more signatures has
closed. Strayhorne -- a former Republican -- says that move is
intended to keep her off the ballot.
WISCONSIN.
The GOP contest for Wisconsin Governor became a one-man
show on Friday when Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker quit
the race. Walker's departure leaves Congressman Mark Green as
the lone candidate for the Republican nomination against Governor
Jim Doyle (D). Walker cited fundraising problems as the reason
for his withdrawal, saying he fell far short of his quarterly
goal. Walker immediately endorsed Green -- and then went even
further by urging former Governor Tommy Thompson (R) to disavow
any more interest in the gubernatorial contest and look instead
at the race against US Senator Herb Kohl (D). As for himself,
Walker said he won't jump into the contests for Lieutenant Governor
or US Senate. Walker's departure is good news for Green, as he
can now focus his financial resources on the general election
contest. Race rating: Leans Dem. 
new
Columbus Dispatch poll shows Congressman Ted Strickland
holding a landslide lead in the Democratic primary for Governor,
while Secretary of State Ken Blackwell has a comfortable lead
in the GOP contest. Strickland was at 51%, with former State Representative
Bryan Flannery trailing far behind at 8%. Blackwell is at 39%,
followed by Attorney General Jim Petro at 28%. These numbers come
in the wake of Blackwell running an extensive buy of anti-Taft
and anti-Petro attack spots on TV and radio over the past month.
Blackwell also confirmed last week he will not appear for any
pre-primary debates with Petro because it is not in his campaign
strategy, said a Blackwell spokesperson. There were no surprises
in the US Senate primaries -- except for the surprise that the
newspaper paid good money to poll these two blowout contests that
were never competitive. US Senator Mike DeWine (R) is at 61%,
with his opponents at a dismal combined total of 5%. Meanwhile,
Congressman Sherrod Brown leads truck driver Merrill Keiser in
the Democratic race by a 54% to 4% vote. Keiser made headline
earlier this month when he told reporters he supported the death
penalty for homosexual acts. The primary is May 2.
Burns
(R) would withdraw at the last minute and allow Congressman Denny
Rehberg (R) to jump into the contest, both men filed for reelection
to their respective current offices. State Senate Republican Leader
Bob Keenan filed against Burns in the primary, running on an anti-corruption
message that GOP voters may prefer to vote for a candidate not
tied to the current lobbying scandals in DC. Two others also filed
in the GOP primary. On the Democratic side, State Auditor John
Morrison, State Senate President Jon Tester and three other hopefuls
are battling for the right to face Burns in November. Burns currently
trails both Morrison and Tester in head-to-head independent polls.
Burns received more cash -- around $150,000 -- from former lobbyist
and admitted felon Jack Abramoff than anyone else on Capitol Hill,
explaining his lagging poll numbers and vulnerability. Senate
race rating: Toss-Up. In the state's lone US House race, two Dems
are vying in a primary to face Rehberg in the general election:
State Representative Monica Lindeen and gas station owner Eric
Gunderson. Race rating: GOP Favored. Other third party and independent
candidates have until May 30 to file.
Bad
weather in at least half if the state -- the southern half --
hindered voter turnout in Tuesday's primary. Governor Rod Blagojevich
(D) cruised to a landslide 70% win for renomination over former
Chicago Alderman Edwin Eisendrath. In the five-candidate GOP gubernatorial
primary, State
Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka defeated wealthy conservative businessman
Jim Oberweis by a vote of 38% to 32%. In CD-8, investment banker
David McSweeney won the GOP nomination with 43% -- scoring a 10-point
lead over his nearest primary rival in the crowded and nasty primary
contest. McSweeney will next take on freshman Congresswoman Melissa
Bean (D) in November in this GOP-friendly district. In the open
CD-6 race, disabled Iraqi war veteran and DCCC-recruited candidate
Tammy Duckworth (D) defeated technology consultant and liberal
activist Christine Cegelis (D) by a 44% to 40% vote. Duckworth
will face State Senator Peter Roskam (R), a one-time aide to former
House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX), in November in this GOP
leaning district. Frequent candidate Ray "Spanky the Clown"
Wardingly easily outdistanced neo-Nazi Arthur Jones for Congress
in the entirely comical but totally meaningless CD-3 GOP primary
contest.
numbers
continue to show embattled US Senator Conrad Burns (R) losing
ground to both of his major Democratic challengers. The latest
Rasmussen Reports poll show the Abramoff-tied incumbent trails
State Senate President Jon Tester (D) by a vote of 46% to 43%
and trails State Auditor John Morrison (D) by a 48% to 43% vote.
Montana Republicans acknowledge Burns is badly damaged by the
scandal -- so much so that State Senate Minority Leader Bob Keenan
is considering making a primary challenge to Burns. GOP voters
may want a "viable option they can be proud of," said
Keenan. One popular rumor widely afloat -- but one that I wouldn't
bet anything on -- is that Burns will suddenly quit the race this
week shortly before Thursday's filing deadline and be replaced
in the Senate race by Congressman Denny Rehberg (R). The Rasmussen
poll shows Rehberg would handily defeat Morrison or Tester. 
Sherwood
Boehlert (R-NY) announced he would not seek re-election. The demographics
of Boehlert's marginal GOP district could produce a competitive
race -- particularly if a social conservative wins the Republican
nomination. Over the weekend, district Republican leaders aligned
with Boehlert worked to clear the primary field for centrist State
Senator Ray Meier. With the exception of former Seneca Falls Mayor
Brad Jones -- a strident pro-life candidate who was already an
announced primary opponent to the pro-choice Boehlert before the
retirement announcement -- all of the other potential GOP hopefuls
issued statements of support for Meier. If he wins the GOP primary,
Meier would be favored to hold the seat. However, if Jones wins
the GOP nod, the general election race would become highly competitive.
Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri, former Cortland Mayor
Bruce Tytler and three others were already announced candidates
for the Democratic nomination. New race rating: Leans GOP.
Martin
Sabo (D-MN) announced he will not seek re-election this year to
a 15th term. Sabo's CD-5 district is safely Democratic, so the
primary will be the only real contest for the seat. State Representative
lively
primary for the open seat. Secretary of State Chet Culver, State
Representative Ed Fallon and former State Economic Development
Director Mike Blouin are locked in a competitive race for the
Dem nomination. The other big race to watch here is the open CD-1
contest -- expected to be one of the closest Congressional races
in the nation in November. Three Republicans and four Democrats
filed for Nussle's open seat. In CD-3, State Senate President
Jeff Lamberti (R) is a viable challenger against Congressman Leonard
Boswell (D). College professor and "Deaniac" political
activist Dave Loebsack (D) faced an mild setback, falling just
ten signatures short of the amount needed. Loebsack collected
more than the overall total needed, but fell short of the numbers
required in two of the counties. Under state law, Loebsack will
still be the Dem nominee on the ballot because the party will
simply call a district convention to name him as the nominee.
Friday
and thought it was great. Not only is it a well-acted and entertaining
film and a nightmarish UK of the year 2020, it gives viewers much
to think about. The 
Thursday
nominated term-limited Idaho Governor Dirk Kempthorne (R) to be
the next US Interior Secretary in his Cabinet. This would be a
return to DC for Kempthorne, who previously served in the US Senate
... A new American Research Group poll shows that a plurality
of Americans favor US Senator Russ Feingold's (D-WI) resolution
to censure President Bush for "authorizing wiretaps of Americans
within the United States without obtaining court orders."
Of those surveyed, 46% support the idea and 44% oppose it. To
date, only two other Senate Dems have expressed support for the
proposal -- and John Kerry (D-MA) now indicates he is leaning
towards supporting it. On Thursday, US Senator Lincoln Chafee
(R-RI) told the Providence Journal he may support Feingold's
censure resolution. Chafee said he "agrees with" Feingold
that 
Bush
"acted illegally when he launched" the program of "warrantless
wiretaps of some US citizens." Maybe Chafee forgot he's facing
a competitive GOP primary. Postscript: Chafee apparently remembered
after the article came out and issued a new statement clarifying
that he does not support the resolution, but wants a Senate debate
on the these issues ... In West Virginia, state broadcasting
mogul and former State GOP Chair John Raese is pitching some,
umm, unusual ideas in his campaign against US Senator
Robert C. Byrd (D). Proclaiming that "capitalism can save
this country," Raese on Thursday called for the repeal of
all clean air, clean water and minimum wage laws. No one can accuse
Raese of running a poll-driven campaign ... In Texas, wealthy
businessman and 2002 Dem Gov nominee Tony Sanchez broke with his
party by endorsing State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn (Independent)
for Governor. Former Lt Gov Ben Barnes (D) is also backing Strayhorn.
John
Baldacci (D) will face a primary challenge from progressive businessman
Chris Miller, but the incumbent should not have any problem winning
renomination. However, Baldacci's real fight will be in November.
The GOP primary will feature a competitive race between former
Congressman Dave Emery and State Senators Chandler Woodcock and
Peter Mills. Radio talk show host and 2004 Green Party VP nominee
Pat LaMarche was the only candidate to file for the Green nomination.
Ten independents are also running for Governor, but their filing
deadline is in June. US Senator Olympia Snowe (R) faces only minor
opposition: attorney Eric Mehnert (D) and frequent liberal candidate
Jean Hay Bright (D). State Senate Majority Leader Michael Brennan
(D) had previously announced he would challenge Snowe, but seemingly
lost interest in the race and did not file. Congressman Tom Allen
(D) faces a challenge from State Representative Darlene Curley
(R) in CD-1, but Allen is safe. CD-2 Congressman Mike Michaud
(D) only faces nominal opposition.
FLORIDA.
Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R) once again flirted
with rumors of her imminent withdrawal from the US Senate race
against incumbent Bill Nelson (D) -- only to yet again announce
she's running and will put in as much of her vast personal fortune
as is needed for the effort. "I'm staying. I'm in this race.
I'm going to win," said Harris. Her campaign lost more staff
and consultants this week in response to Harris' most recent bizarre
"is she in-or-out" antics on the trail. Polls show her
trailing Nelson by a wide margin and Republican leaders have been
only tepid in their support of her candidacy.
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