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| BLOG ARCHIVE: FEBRUARY 1-16, 2006
IOWA.
Political points to Secretary of State Chet Culver (D)
in his gubernatorial race, as he found a great way to eliminate
an announced rival. On Wednesday, Culver named State Agriculture
Commissioner Patty Judge as his runningmate for Lieutenant Governor.
Judge had been a rival candidate for Governor. In Iowa, the gubernatorial
nominee traditionally names a runningmate after winning primary.
Culver is trying an approach -- naming a runningmate early --
that hasn't been used in Iowa since 1990. US Senator Chuck Grassley
(R) told the Des Moines Register he thought the Culver-Judge ticket
was a "formidable" team. In ending her own campaign
and joining Culver's ticket, Judge called on the remaining Democratic
candidates to also quit the primary contest and throw their support
behind Culver to help the party's odds in the open seat contest
in November. In the "money primary," Culver also leads
his primary rivals -- having raised twice as much money as his
nearest opponent. Congressman
Jim Nussle is the likely GOP nominee.
US
SENATE. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) has got a race
on his hands for the open Majority Whip spot -- if he somehow
manages to win reelection in November. Senator Lamar Alexander
(R-TN) confirmed for Roll Call that he plans to challenge
Santorum for the #2 leadership spot. Alexander previously served
in the Presidential Cabinet and was a Presidential candidate in
1996 and 2000. According to the newspaper, Alexander already raised
over $750,000 through his leadership PAC during this cycle, and
has "maxed out" in contributions to all 14 of his Republican
colleagues up for re-election this year, given the NRSC $65,000,
and for the third year in a row is chairing the annual President’s
Dinner. TENNESSEE.
In a very low-key announcement Wednesday, Congressman
Bill Jenkins (R) kept his original term-limits promise and announced
Wednesday he will not seek re-election in 2006. "This decision
will allow me to spend more time with my family and to do some
things which we have been too busy to do," said Jenkins.
The district is safely Republican, so expect a crowded primary
GOP field. SITE
OF THE DAY. Politics can mean lots of things and today's
winner is Idealist.org,
a rather non-traditional choice. Not political, per se,
but this site is political in the sense that -- to quote the Ben
Harper/Jack Johnson song lyrics -- "I can change the
world, with my own two hands. Make it a better place, with my
own two hands." Well, if that isn't a message of politics
-- with politics being the art of the possible -- then I don't
know what is. Use this great site to find ways to do everything
from rebuilding nations ravaged by genocide ... to feeding the
hungry in Peoria (or your own community). Jobs, volunteer opportunities,
and more. "I can make peace on earth, with my own two
hands..." FREE
SPEECH ZONE. [Insert your favorite Dick Cheney joke
here ... or insert your faux indignation that Dems are so callous
as to make fun of something personal and tragic like this.] NEW
MEXICO. Major party candidate filing closed on Tuesday,
with the marquee race in the state being the CD-1 contest between
Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) and Attorney General Patricia
Madrid (D). Neither woman faces primary opponents. Wilson has
never broken the 55% mark in this swing district, and Madrid is
viewed as the strongest challenger she's ever faced. US Senator
Jeff Bingaman (D) and Governor Bill Richardson (D) both drew only
nominal GOP opposition, so classify both of those contests as
"Safe Dem."
NEW
JERSEY. While most recent polls show newly appointed
US Senator Bob Menendez (D) trailing State Senator Tom Kean Jr.
(R), a new Zogby poll shows Menendez having regained the lead
by a 37% to 32% vote. The same poll last month showed Kean leading
by 5-points.
VIRGINIA.
US Senator George Allen (R) does not yet face a competitive
race, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll, but the race
is potentially moving towards that territory. Allen leads tech
executive Harris Miller (D) by a 48% to 35% vote. Allen also leads
author and former Navy Secretary James Webb (D) by a vote of 49%
to 37%. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Vice President Cheney's shooting victim
suffers a heart attack when one of Cheney's birdshot pellets became
dislodged and traveled to Whittington's heart. I'd guess Karl
Rove is still searching for some way to blame all this on the
Democrats "lack of commitment to defeating the terrorists"
... or perhaps plant a media story with AP that Senate Minority
Leader Harry Reid was also seen with a shotgun pointed at Whittington
once before ("So, you see, they're no better").
GUBERNATORIAL
POLLS. SITE
OF THE DAY. Today's winner is This
Modern World, from political cartoonist Tom Tomorrow. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Vice President Cheney was cleared by local
Texas law enforcement officers of potential criminal negligence
charges after an investigation lasting minutes. Cheney will however
be fined $7 for the game violation of not having a proper stamp
for hunting multimillionaire Republican lawyers out of season. P2008.
Republican political activists gathered in DC this
WASHINGTON
STATE. A new Rasmussen Reports tracking poll shows US
Senator Maria Cantwell (D) continuing to hold a solid lead in
her re-election race over wealthy insurance executive Mike McGavick
(R). The numbers: Cantwell-50%, McGavick-36%. Cantwell's approval
rating (57%) is also up since the last poll.
FLORIDA.
State CFO Tom Gallagher (R) is running into ethics problems
in his gubernatorial campaign. News reports over the last week
indicate Gallagher engaged in securities trading of insurance
company stock while he was Florida Insurance Commissioner -- and
failed to disclose the activities. Further, he apparently made
a purchase of a small amount of a company's stock days before
he voted in the Cabinet on a related pipeline project. Gallagher's
explanation is that the investments were either (a) so small in
dollars as to not be significant to Gallagher, and/or (b) didn't
influence his official actions. Attorney General Charlie Crist's
rival GOP campaign is riding this issue hard. Crist also is gaining
momentum with party activists, having scored the official endorsements
of the Republican Executive Committees in several of Florida's
largest counties in recent weeks. Gallagher's campaign is protesting
the Crist endorsements, complaining that party organizations should
not get involved in an open seat primary. SITE
OF THE DAY. Today's winner is Ridenbaugh
Press. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Your space for everything else. SATURDAY NEWS UPDATE. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Weekends mean days at the beach for me,
so y'all can have at it here until I post the Monday updates.
CALIFORNIA.
Less than two weeks after anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan
announced she would make a symbolic "peace candidate"
primary challenge to US Senator Dianne Feinstein, Sheehan announced
a change of plans. ""I am not running against Senator
Feinstein, but I will continue to be a thorn in her side and a
thorn in the side of any representative who is not stridently
working for peace," said Sheehan on Thursday. Sheehan became
a peace activist after her Army soldier son was killed in the
Iraq War. Sheehan said she believes she can be more influential
continuing her current efforts than by being a candidate. Feinstein
is a safe bet to win an easy reelection, as she faces only token
GOP opposition and a colorful array of third-party candidates. ABRAMOFF
SCANDAL. The AP is reporting US Senator Minority Leader
Harry Reid (D-NV) wrote at least four letters on behalf of clients
of corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff's firm. In return, Abramoff's
firm purportedly helped raised campaign bucks for Reid at an event
in DC. If the allegation prove true of any quid pro quo -- or
even if they linger and cause an appearance of impropriety --
look for his Democratic colleagues to push Reid to step down as
leader or fade into the back ground (with Durbin playing the lead
Dem visible role) so the Abramoff scandal will be viewed as a
largely GOP scandal (which, to date, it is). PLAME-GATE.
Here's an interesting item from National
Journal: "Vice President SITE
OF THE DAY. Today's winner is Rhymes
with Right.
RHODE
ISLAND. According to a new Brown University poll, Governor
Don Carcieri (R) holds a comfortable lead for re-election in this
solidly blue state, while US Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) is locked
in a much tighter fight. In the gubernatorial contest, Carcieri
leads Lieutenant Governor Charlie Fogarty (D) by a 46% to 35%
vote. The margin is largely unchanged since September. In the
US Senate race, Chafee leads former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse
(D) by a 40%-34% vote. When matched against a more liberal Dem
nominee -- Secretary of State Matt Brown -- the contest is even
closer. The numbers: Chafee-38%, Brown-36%. The poll also showed
Brown moved ahead of Whitehouse in the Dem primary contest: Brown-31%,
Whitehouse-25%. Oddly, the poll did not test the GOP primary between
the centrist Chafee and conservative Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey.
However -- when Laffey is the GOP nominee against either Brown
or Whitehouse in general election matchups -- Laffey trails by
margins of 23% and 15%, respectively.
ALABAMA.
Governor Bob Riley is locked in a close re-election
race -- and recent Alabama newspaper coverage of his former ties
to corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff appear to be weakening his numbers,
according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll. Riley leads Lieutenant
Governor Lucy Baxley (D) by a vote of 47% to 40%. Riley also leads
former Governor Don Siegelman (D) by a vote of 49% to 40%. Siegelman
is currently under indictment on corruption charges -- for the
second time in two years (he was acquitted last time) -- so his
problems make Riley's pale by comparison. Riley also faces a hotly
contested primary against against ousted Supreme Court Chief Justice
Roy Moore. Moore -- who bills himself as "The Ten Commandments
Judge" -- is a political hero of the Religious Right. However,
the poll shows Moore would have problems against either Democrat.
Baxley leads Moore in a general election by a 50% to 39% vote.
Even the ethically-challenged Siegelman leads Moore: 46% to 40%.
Siegelman, FYI, says the criminal allegations are false, politically
motivated charges brought by a Republican prosecutor.
SITE
OF THE DAY. Today's winner is Crooks
and Liars. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Nope,
no rant today.
ILLINOIS.
The latest Rasmussen Reports tracking poll shows Governor
Rod Blagojevich (D) could be in trouble in November -- which is
a pretty amazing feat for a Democrat in this fairly reliable blue
state. According to the poll, Blagojevich is trailing centrist
State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka (R) by a vote of 48% to 37%.
Blagojevich and wealthy businessman Ron Gidwitz (R) are locked
in a tie with 40% apiece. The incumbent leads conservative dairy
owner Jim Oberweis (R) by a 43% to 39% vote. Sadly -- for all
of these candidates in both parties -- not a single one of them
was able to score an approval rating of higher than 46%. If another
independent poll supports these numbers, I'll move this one from
Leans Dem to Toss-Up. P2008.
Count Mississippi Governor and former Republican National
Chairman Haley Barbour out of the 2008 Presidential race. In an
very direct interview Tuesday with the AP, Barbour said he "won’t
run for President in 2008 because his time is occupied with Hurricane
Katrina recovery." Instead, Barbour said he plans to seek
reelection in 2007. WISCONSIN.
Governor Jim Doyle (D) continues to hold a slim lead
over both of his GOP challengers. Doyle leads Congressman Mark
Green (R) by a vote of 48% to 41%. Doyle also holds a 47% to 40%
advantage over Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R). Keep
this one in the "Leans Dem" category.
MASSACHUSETTS.
Campaign missteps and gaffes by Attorney General Tom
Reilly (D) in recent weeks have caused him to lose his once commanding
lead in the gubernatorial primary over liberal former US Assistant
Attorney General Deval Patrick (D). According to a new Suffolk
University/WHDH-TV poll, Reilly now leads Patrick by a competitive
vote of 39% to 30%. Several months ago, Reilly held a 40-point
lead over Patrick in this same poll. On the GOP side, Lieutenant
Governor Kerry Healey leads wealthy businessman Christy Mihos
by a 56% to 15% vote. As for general election match-ups, Reilly
leads Healey by a 47%-32% margin and Patrick leads Healey by a
closer vote of 39% to 32%. Rating: Leans Dem. SITE
OF THE DAY. Today's winner is The
Senate Site -- the collective blog site of the Utah
Senate Republicans. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Yet
another reason why I unabashedly support Senator Russ
Feingold for President in 2008!! Here's a brief excerpt:
"The President’s actions are indefensible. Freedom is an
enduring principle. It is not something to celebrate in one breath,
and ignore the next. Freedom is at the heart of who we are as
a nation, and as a people. We cannot be a beacon of freedom for
the world unless we protect our own freedoms here at home. The
President was right about one thing. In his address, he said 'We
love our freedom, and we will fight to keep it.' Yes, Mr. President.
We do love our freedom, and we will fight to keep it. We will
fight to defeat the terrorists who threaten the safety and security
of our families and loved ones. And we will fight to protect the
rights of law-abiding Americans against intrusive government power."
WYOMING.
A new Casper Star-Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll
shows Governor Dave Freudenthal (D) in very solid shape to win
reelection this year. He scored a 81% overall approval rating
(including a 78% approval rating from Republicans) -- and led
likely GOP challenger Ray Hunkins by a vote of 55% to 17%. Freudenthal's
numbers are even more amazing when one realizes the Republicans
hold a 2-to-1 registration advantage in the state. US Senator
Craig Thomas (R) led college professor Dale Groutage (D) by a
lopsided 63% to 17% vote. In the state's lone House race, six-term
Congresswoman Barbara Cubin (R) scored much worse than the other
incumbents -- scoring a dismal 53% disapproval rating. However,
Cubin still appears very strong against Teton County School Board
Chair Gary Trauner (D). Cubin held a 54% to 32% advantage over
Trauner. The numbers indicate Cubin could potentially be vulnerable
to a stronger opponent, particularly a strong primary challenger.
COLORADO.
Republicans have former Illinois Governor Jim Edgar
and the Democrats have Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper. The two
are incredibly popular and centrist political leaders who repeatedly
toy with running for statewide offices and -- when the buzz is
"they're in" -- unexpectedly announce they won't run.
On Monday, Hickenlooper announced he will not run for Governor.
He explained he wants to complete the work he started in Denver,
and feared that would not be possible if he ran for Governor.
Hick's move keeps the race in the "No Clear Favorite"
category -- with uninspiring candidates competing for both major
party nominations. SITE
OF THE DAY. Today's winner is The
Brad Blog. OPEN
THREAD. Yup, again. CONGRESS.
So much for the talking point that the election of Congressman
John Boehner (R-OH) as the new House Majority Leader is a reform-minded
break with the Tom DeLay era. National Journal noted
I
don't think Boehner would give up his new post for DeLay -- but
his vague answer shows the new leader doesn't want to do anything
to upset the old leader. MASSACHUSETTS.
Attorney General Tom Reilly (D) had a really bad week
for his gubernatorial campaign. Reilly initially told one Lieutenant
Governor hopeful he would not interfere in that race. Then --
while actively courting venture capitalist and '02 Lt Gov nominee
Chris Gabrielli as his runningmate -- GEORGIA.
A group of 21 GOP State Senators -- nearly two-thirds
of the entire Georgia Senate Republican Caucus -- signed a letter
on Friday calling on former Christian Coalition Executive Director
Ralph Reed (R) to quit the open race for Lieutenant Governor.
According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Senators
said Reed's "ties to Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff could
jeopardize the re-election of Gov. Sonny Perdue and the rest of
the GOP ticket." The group have all endorsed State Senator
Casey Cagle (R), Reed's primary opponent. "Having some of
[Cagle's] fellow state senators ... sign a campaign letter attacking
me will make no difference to me or to the voters," responded
Reed. In Georgia, the Lieutenant Governor serves as presiding
officer of the State Senate.
NEVADA.
Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (D) is making sure his
name remains in play in newspapers around the state. He's made
a point of repeatedly mentioning over the past week that he recently
met in DC with DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer and Senators Ted Kennedy
and Barack Obama. The topic: Goodman making a possible challenge
to US Senator John Ensign (R). The colorful and flamboyant Goodman
is popular in the state, has high name ID, and his candidacy --
if it happens -- could move the contest from the "Safe GOP"
column into the "Leans GOP" category. To date, Ensign's
only Democratic opponent is businessman and Presidential son Jack
Carter. SITE
OF THE DAY. I'm going a new direction (for a little
while) with the SOTD Award and start recognizing some of our favorite
blog sites (again, from across the political spectrum). Today's
winner is BAGnewsNotes. OPEN
THREAD. Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Steelers. OPEN
THREAD. Yeah, I know ... I'm slacking off on the blog
postings during the last few days ... but I've posted a whole
bunch of updates to the various state pages.
NEVADA.
Congressman Jim Gibbons (R) continues to lead in the
open race for Governor. According to a new Rasmussen Reports poll,
Gibbons leads Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson (D) by a vote of 43%
to 38%. When matched against State Senate Minority Leader Dina
Titus (D) bt a vote of 46% to 41%. OPEN
THREAD. Have at it. THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE. OPEN
THREAD. It is again one of those days when my "real
job" gets in the way of running Politics1. I was busy in
legal hearings most of the day on Wednesday and am now preparing
for a -- locally -- high-profile hearing on Thursday. I need to
be off-line and seriously prepping for it tonight, but I'll be
back with new updates for Friday. |
BLOG
ARCHIVE:
POLITICAL BLOG ROLL: KINDA
NEUTRAL: DEM/LEFT: GOP/RIGHT: OTHER: For those who would like to track Politics1 with a newsreader, we publish a RSS feed:
|
P008.
Add another potential name to the 2008 White House contest,
but it is way too early to tell if he'll really run and under
what party banner. Liberal New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg
(R) -- a billionaire publishing tycoon reelected in a landslide
last year -- is reportedly considering making a Presidential run
in 2008. According to the New York Observer, Bloomberg
political advisor and Deputy Mayor Kevin Sheekey is promoting
the idea -- even if Bloomberg seems uninterested in the race.
One advisor told the newspaper the only way Bloomberg would ever
again run for office would be to run for President. And, if he
runs, the newspaper reports he would run as either an Independent
or a Democrat. Bloomberg is, after all, a former Democrat. According
to the newspaper, Sheekey is trying to drum up support to convince
Bloomberg to change his mind and jump into the race -- as he is
also credited with being the driving force that convinced Bloomberg
to seek a second term as Mayor. "He would have a very strong
record to run on," said veteran Democratic Presidential campaign
consultant Bob Shrum. Another Democratic consultant, Hank Sheinkopf,
said Bloomberg could run on a slogan of "He’ll clean
up the mess in Washington. He’ll make the economy work."
Bloomberg doesn't look like he's running, but he's also not completely
ruling it out, either.
Postscript: On Thursday, Bloomberg told reporters he absolutely
will not be a candidate for President. 
COLORADO.
If Florida Republicans belatedly rallied behind Katherine
Harris in the US Senate race, the same could be said of Colorado
Democrats towards the gubernatorial campaign of former Denver
District Attorney Bill Ritter (D). Dems tried -- repeatedly and
unsuccessfully -- to recruit Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper into
the contest against the pro-life Ritter. State House Majority
Leader Alice Madden (D) -- a pro-choice candidate -- jumped into
the race a month ago but said she'd quit if Hick ran. Hick isn't
running but Madden still bowed out on Wednesday and threw her
support behind Ritter. While Ritter still faces nominal opposition
at the Dem convention, he now has a lock on the nomination. In
November, RItter will face the winner of the bitter GOP contest
between Congressman Bob Beauprez and former university president
Marc Holtzman.
TEXAS.
Rasmussen Reports has finally polled the wild, four-way
gubernatorial contest in the Lone Star State -- and Governor Rick
Perry (R) looks pretty good in either likely variant on the race.
If former Congressman Chris Bell is the Dem nominee, Perry leads
with 40%, followed by State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn
(Independent) at 31%, Bell at 13%, and colorful musician/author
Kinky Friedman (Independent) at 9%. Democrats only do slightly
better if former Supreme Court Justice Bob Gammage is the nominee.
The numbers: Perry-38%, Strayhorn-29%, Gammage-18%, Friedman-8%.
FLORIDA.
If the latest Rasmussen Reports poll is on the mark,
US Senator Bill Nelson (D) is facing a rapidly tightening race
for reelection against Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R). Harris
-- after seeing months of the NRCC, Governor Jeb Bush and other
GOP leaders working unsuccessfully to recruit a primary challenger
to oppose Harris -- was finally able to get her GOP leadership
to begrudgingly rally their support behind her. The new poll shows
Nelson leading Harris by a 49% to 40% vote.
OHIO.
With the Thursday filing deadline looming, it appears
rapid-fire changes are taking place in several hot races. State
Senator Eric Fingerhut (D) quit the gubernatorial contest on Monday,
leaving Congressman Ted Strickland (D) as the safe bet to win
the nomination. Recent polls also show Strickland a slight favorite
in the general election over either of the two leading GOP candidates.
In the US Senate race, attorney and Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett
(D) is apparently bowing to DCCC wishes that he jump back into
the CD-3 race against freshman Congresswoman Jean Schmidt (R).
Hackett is scheduled to exit the US Senate race and announce his
rematch against Schmidt on Tuesday morning. A leading Ohio Republican
told Politics1 that "Hackett will defeat Schmidt in November
if Schmidt manages to win renomination [over former Congressman
Bob McEwen] -- but Hackett will only be a one-termer." The
Dems can now move the CD-3 seat into the "Leans GOP"
column. Hackett's exit from the Senate race also clears the Dem
primary field for Congressman Sherrod Brown. Postscript: Hackett quit the US Senate race, as expected, but announced he was also withdrawing entirely from the world of politics. "This is an extremely disappointing decision that I feel has been forced on me ... For me, this is a second betrayal. First, my government misused and mismanaged the military in Iraq, and now my own party is afraid to support candidates like me," said a rather bitter Hackett.
US
SENATE POLLS. MISSOURI - The latest monthly Rasmussen
Reports tracking poll indicates US Senator Jim Talent (R) has
bounced back from a deficit and now leads in his race for re-election.
The numbers: Talent-46%, State Comptroller Claire McCaskill (D)-41%.
MONTANA - While Talent may be improving his position, US Senator
Conrad Burns (R) is losing ground in his contest. A lengthy round
of bad press tying Burns to corrupt GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff,
Burns has seen his support sag. State Auditor John Morrison (D)
leads Burns by a 50% to 43% vote. Liberal State Senate President
Jon Tester (D) is tied with Burns, with each man at 46% apiece.
PENNSYLVANIA - A new Quinnipiac University poll shows US Senator
Rick Santorum (R) falling even further behind State Treasurer
Bob Casey Jr. (D). The numbers: Casey-51%, Santorum-36%.
CALIFORNIA
- Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) continues to remain locked
in a tight reelection contest. According to a new Rasmussen Reports
poll, Schwarzenegger trails State Treasurer Phil Angelides (D)
by a vote of 41% to 40%. However, Schwarzenegger leads State Comptroller
Steve Westley (D) by a vote of 39% to 34%. ALABAMA - Governor
Bob Riley (R) holds a wide lead over GOP primary rival Roy Moore,
according to a new Mobile Register-University of South
Alabama survey. Riley now leads by a vote of 56% to 28%. It is
also the first time Riley has passed the important 50% mark. KANSAS
- Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D) continues to look good in her
race for reelection -- despite her partisan affiliation -- in
this heavily red state. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows
Sebelius leading former State House Speaker Robin Jennison (R)
by a 47% to 36% vote. Sebelius also leads State Senator Jim Bennett
(R) by a vote of 45% to 37%. The poll showed the centrist Sebelius
maintaining a solid 62% approval rating. ARKANSAS - Attorney General
Mike Beebe (D) has widened his lead over former Congressman Asa
Hutchinson (R), according to the new Rasmussen Reports poll. Beebe
now leads by a 48% to 38% vote. These numbers show a 4-point increase
for Beebe since last month.
past
weekend for the annual Conservative Political Action Conference
(CPAC). Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) gave a rousing
speech that played to the very conservative crowd, drawing large
applause but not necessarily votes. Gingrich used the event to
help boost his expected Presidential campaign -- with supporters
in red shirts distributing campaign buttons to the crowd -- even
though he told reporters he's not yet decided to become a candidate.
[Editor's note: Does anyone ever believe these demurrals?
Of course he's definitely running.] "Ideas precede reform.
If you can't think it, you can't say it and you can't do it,"
explained Gingrich, who was also plugging his recent book. Delegates
at the convo also cast straw ballots on the 2008 GOP White House
hopefuls. US Senator George Allen (R-VA) finished first with 22%,
closely followed -- surprisingly -- by US Senator John McCain
(R-AZ) at 20%. Prevailing conventional wisdom held that McCain
was disliked by the party's more conservative base. Two pro-choice
GOP centrists captured the third and fourth spots: former NYC
Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) had 12% and Secretary of State Condi
Rice (R-CA) captured 10%. Rice repeatedly says she is not running
in 2008. As for Gingrich, he may have rock star status with this
conservative crowd -- but only 5% of the CPAC attendees voted
for him. 
CHENEY
SHOOTING. Vice President Dick Cheney shot a member of
his hunting party on Saturday afternoon -- although the Administration
was able to keep the story from leaking out for nearly a full
day. Cheney -- an avid hunter -- was at the massive Armstrong
Ranch in Texas for the quail hunt. While aiming at a flight of
birds through his gunsight, Cheney fired his shotgun and hit 78-year
old attorney and wealthy GOP activist Harry Whittington in the
face, neck and chest with a blast of shotgun pellets. The man
is in stable condition at a local hospital. "The Vice President
didn't see him ... The Vice President picked out a bird and was
following it and shot ... Harry was in the line of fire and got
peppered pretty good," said one witness. The shooting of
Whittington was clearly an accident. No word as to whether or
not Whittington resembles former VP Chief of Staff Scooter Libby,
as that could help better explain the shooting.
MICHIGAN.
The latest WXYZ-TV/EPIC-MRA poll shows the gubernatorial
race is tightening. Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) leads billionaire
businessman Dick DeVos (R) by a vote of 53% to 46%. A majority
of poll respondents believe the state is on "the wrong track"
-- particularly with lingering economic woes. However, the good
news for Granholm is that voters by a 2-to-1 margin blame President
Bush over Granholm as the person largely responsible for Michigan's
economic problems. 
ARIZONA.
Yet another round of independent polling confirms Governor
Janet Napolitano (D) appears fairly safe in her bid for re-election.
According to a new Rasmussen Reports poll, Napolitano would current
defeat any of the three current GOP leaders by lopsided margins.
Napolitano leads financial consultant Don Goldwater (R) by a 54%
to 31% vote. Napolitano defeats former State Senate President
John Greene (R) by a 54% to 27% margin. She also leads former
State Appeals Court Judge Jan Florez (R) by a vote of 55% to 26%.
The poll did not test the incumbent against Religious Right activist
Len Munsil, who is also emerging as a strong candidate for the
GOP nomination.
Dick
Cheney's former chief of staff, I. Lewis (Scooter) Libby, testified
to a federal grand jury that he had been "authorized"
by Cheney and other White House "superiors" in the summer
of 2003 to disclose classified information to journalists to defend
the Bush administration's use of prewar intelligence in making
the case to go to war with Iraq, according to attorneys familiar
with the matter, and to court records. ... The new disclosure
that Libby has claimed that the Vice President and others in the
White House had authorized him to release information to make
the case to go to war, and later to defend the administration's
use of prewar intelligence, is significant for several reasons.
First, it significantly adds to a mounting body of information
that Cheney played a central and personal role in directing efforts
to counter claims by Wilson and other administration critics that
the Bush administration had misused intelligence information to
go to war with Iraq. Second, it raises additional questions about
Libby's motives in concealing his role in leaking Plame's name
to the press, if he was in fact more broadly authorized by Cheney
and others to rebut former Ambassador Wilson's charges."
FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Florida for Feingold '08! Like the idea?
Then I need your help in raising some campaign money for the only
US Senator to vote against the original Patriot Act ... for a
Democratic leader who voted against the Iraq War from the start
and supports setting a withdrawal timetable (so he doesn't have
to offer mealy-mouthed excuses or convoluted explanations about
why they "voted for the war but didn't really want it to
happen" a la Hillary, Kerry, Edwards, etc.) ... and for an
outspoken advocate for economic justice and true health care for
all Americans. If you'd like to get involved in organizing an
upcoming Feingold fundraising event in South Florida -- and, yes,
it involves committing to write a check and raising money
from others -- then please 
PENNSYLVANIA.
Dems have recruited another top notch candidate to place
another Congressional seat in play. Navy Admiral Joe Sestak --
who retired last month after 31 years in the military -- has announced
his candidacy against ten-term Congressman Curt Weldon (R) in
the CD-7 race. Sestak, who has a master's degree in public administration
from Harvard, is the former Deputy Chief of Naval Operations and
a former high-ranking National Security Council staff member.
Sestak opposes the Iraq War, calling it "unnecessary"
and a "tragic misadventure." Weldon has
been viewed as a potentially vulnerable incumbent if faced with
a viable opponent -- but has been favored over the years with
a series of much weaker and inept foes. Weldon -- as we previously
reported in 2004 
CONGRESS.
Respected pundit Charlie Cook of National Journal
is seeing a very different political environment today as versus
a year ago. Then, Cook wrote that Democratic odds of recapturing
the US House appeared near impossible. Today, he now believes
"the possibility of a Democratic takeover -- although less
than 50-50 -- is very real ... Even though House Democrats need
a net gain of only 15 seats this November, that task is fairly
daunting because the playing field is so small ... Nevertheless,
the Democrats do have a real shot at ending the GOP's control
of the House ... The current model predicts a net Democratic gain
of 10 seats. When we factor in a four-seat margin of error, the
model projects that as of today, under current conditions, and
without speculating about what the national political environment
may do between now and November, Democrats will make a net gain
of six to 14 seats. With a bit of luck -- or a wave of any size
-- Democrats might even grasp their gold ring: 15 seats."
PENNSYLVANIA.
Former pro football player Lynn Swann (R) essentially
locked-up the GOP gubernatorial nomination on Tuesday with the
withdrawal of his leading rival from the race. Former Lieutenant
Governor Bill Scranton III (R) quit the contest, saying he knows
he cannot defeat Swann in the May 16th primary. Scranton had been
trying to convince state party leaders to stay neutral in the
primary and allow voters to select the nominee on their own. "We
are strong but not strong enough to defeat a candidate that has
received near unanimous backing of the state and national parties
... I have determined that my chances of success are minimal in
mounting a grassroots campaign effort," explained Scranton,
who said he recognized Swann now has enough endorsements to win
the state party's endorsement at Saturday's convention. Swann
will still face a primary challenge, but it will not be particularly
competitive. Governor Ed Rendell (D) faces no primary opposition.
Rate this race as "Leans Dem."
OKLAHOMA.
The latest KOTV/Oklahoma Poll shows Governor Brad Henry
(D) well positioned to win reelection over Congressman Ernest
Istook (R). According to the poll, Henry leads Istook by a 58%
to 31% vote. The only good news in the poll for Istook is that
he should have no problem winning the GOP primary. The numbers:
Istook-44%, State Senator Jim Williamson-7%, and Oil Executive
Bob Sullivan-6%.
MAINE.
Moving on from reports of two very strong Governors,
here's news about one who is in trouble. Governor John Baldacci
(D) appears to be facing an uphill fight to win re-election in
November. According to a new Rasmussen Reports poll, Balducci
has a 41% approval rating and 55% disapproval rating. In head-to-head
matchups, Balducci also appears vulnerable -- although a one-on-one
race is a near impossibility in 
Boehner
is not particularly interested in adopting new rules to overhaul
lobbying on Capitol Hill -- believing most of the existing rules
are adequate enough to address the problems raised by the Jack
Abramoff scandal, so long as they are enforced. Appearing on Fox
Morning News on Sunday, Boehner said he did not support Speaker
Denny Hastert's proposal to ban all lobbyist-funded travel. Boehner
-- who has taken more than three-dozen privately-funded trips
over the past five years -- defended the travel. Calling it "essential,"
Boehner added: "We can't lock Members up in a cubbyhole here
in Washington and never let them see what's going on around the
country and around the world." When asked on Meet The
Press if he would step aside as Republican Leader if DeLay
is acquitted of criminal charges in his Texas case, Boehner left
the door open for DeLay's return. Here's the key exchange:
Reilly
shocked everyone by suddenly naming State Representative Marie
St. Fleur as his runningmate. Never mind that St. Fleur had already
endorsed a candidate in the Lt Gov primary. The big problem --
which Reilly and staff hadn't bothered to research -- was that
St. Fleur has a federal lien on her house for unpaid taxes, previously
had one house foreclosed for non-payment of mortgage, owes over
$40,000 in unpaid student loans, and cannot renew her driver's
license or motor vehicle registration due to an outstanding non-payment
of her auto taxes. St. Fleur quit the race just one day after
being named to Reilly's ticket. An embarrassed Reilly told reporters
"politics isn't my strong suit." Reilly added he would
now let primary voters alone select his runningmate without him
making any further attempt to influence the race. Party activists
-- with the liberal base traditionally dominating the process
-- selected delegates around the state on Saturday in local caucuses
for the upcoming state convention. While Reilly and former US
Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick both secured far more
than the 15% of delegates needed to secure a primary ballot spot,
Patrick trounced Reilly by a roughly 2-to-1 margin in the delegate
caucuses. Reilly's inept actions are also prompting a renewed
drive to recruit some other Dem into the race -- and several names
are in play as "draft" targets. Anyone getting into
the primary race at this point would have to secure a primary
ballot spot by collecting voter signatures.
COLORADO.
Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper was the Democratic dream
candidate for Governor. Immensely popular throughout the state,
Hickenlooper would have jumped into the general election contest
as the frontrunner had Hick not made it clear months ago he wouldn't
run. Since then, Dems have launched a "Draft Hick" effort
and kept the pressure on. It appears the drive succeeded, as Hickenlooper
is expected to this week announce his candidacy for Governor.
Look for current Dem frontrunner Bill Ritter -- after likely initial
claims that he'll stay in the race -- to eventually become either
the Lieutenant Governor runningmate or the Dem candidate against
Attorney General John Suthers (R). State House Majority Leader
Alice Madden (D) already said she'd quit the race and support
Hickenlooper if he runs.
BOEHNER
WINS. It took two ballots for House Republicans to elect
Congressman John Boehner (R-OH) as their new Majority Leader.
Boehner defeated Majority Whip -- and Acting-Majority Leader --
Roy Blunt (R-MO) by a vote of 122 to 109. All 40 votes cast for
Congressman John Shadegg (R-AZ) on the first ballot shifted to
Boehner on the second round. Blunt, who was favored by the DeLay
allies, will return to his position as Majority Whip. Blunt's
graceful concessional speech helped him avoid a challenge for
the #2 post. Now the two men -- who ran fierce campaigns against
each other -- must start working together. A big winner in this
race is Ways & Means Committee Chair Bill Thomas (R-CA), with
his late endorsement speech for Boehner. Look for Thomas to be
rewarded with a new Chairmanship next year when he is term-limited
out of his current chairmanship. Big losers in this leadership
race included people like Congressman Clay Shaw (R-FL) -- who
backed Blunt early -- who now has very little chance to realize
his dream next year of becoming Ways & Means Chair.
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