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| BLOG ARCHIVE: JANUARY 1-15, 2008. CLINTON,
OBAMA CALL TRUCE ON ATTACKS; ROMNEY, McCAIN FACE-OFF IN MICHIGAN;
JUDGE ORDERS MS US SENATE ELECTION BY MARCH 19; PRYOR TO BE UNOPPOSED. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. CLINTON
STUMPS IN SC; NELSON, McCASKILL ENDORSE OBAMA; ROMNEY LEADS IN
MICH; FILING CLOSES IN MISSISSIPPI; KERRY'S NEW FOE; INDIANA CD-7
CONVO NEWS. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. RUDY'S
MONEY WOES; P2008 UPDATES; INDIANA CD-7 CONVOS. DOOLITTLE
RETIRES; KERRY, PELOSI ALLY ENDORSE OBAMA; CLINTON SCORES KEY
NV BACKER; UNITY08 COLLAPSES; BOSWELL CHALLENGED FROM LEFT. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. RICHARDSON
TO QUIT PREZ RACE; P2008 UPDATES; LANDRIEU DENIES CORRUPTION ALLEGATIONS. NH:
THE DAY AFTER - THREAD #2. McCAIN,
CLINTON WIN NEW HAMPSHIRE. NH
PRIMARY DAY - THREAD #2. TUESDAY
IS NH PRIMARY DAY ... AND TNR CLAIMS RON PAUL HAS 20-YEAR
HISTORY OF RACISM, ANTI-SEMITISM. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. OBAMA,
McCAIN NOW LEADING IN NH; ROMNEY WINS IN WYOMING; TEXAS, OHIO
PRIMARY FILING CLOSES; MS SEN RACE GETS MORE CROWDED. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. HRC
RETOOLS; CAMPAIGNS IGNORE WY GOP CAUCUSES; ROMNEY FIGHTS TO STAY
ALIVE IN NH; MUSGROVE TO RUN IN MS US SENATE RACE. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. OBAMA,
HUCKABEE WIN BIG IN IOWA; BIDEN, DODD & GRAVEL QUIT PREZ RACE;
PETERSON RETIRES. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. LANTOS
RETIRES, WICKER APPOINTED TO US SENATE, ... AND RON IS BACK FROM
VACATION. RON'S
OPEN THREADS TO KEEP YOU BUSY UNTIL HE'S BACK FROM VACATION. I'm on vacation with Dana and others in my family, visiting Israel and the West Bank. I've never been to the Middle East before, so I'm looking forward to it (and not bringing my laptop). To keep you busy during this very brief lull, I've created several threads with designated dates. Please try to stick to the suggested dates, as it will make your interaction with other readers more lively. Thanks! THREAD
FOR JANUARY 1-3, 2008. |
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Hillary
Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns on the issues of civil rights
and race, the Clinton campaign essentially called for a truce
Monday evening. "When it comes to civil rights and our commitment
to diversity, when it comes to our heroes -- President John F.
Kennedy and Dr. King -- Sen. Obama and I are on the same side,"
said Clinton's written statement. "Bill and Hillary Clinton
have historically and consistently been on the right side of the
civil rights movement," responded Obama on Monday evening.
Clinton, Obama and John Edwards will meet in a televised debate
Tuesday evening in Nevada on MSNBC. Dennis Kucinich may also participate
-- but only if he wins his emergency legal action to force MSNBC
to include him in the debate. Meanwhile, Michigan will hold a
Dem Presidential primary with zero delegates at stake and a ballot
that sees Clinton as the only major Dem candidate listed. Michigan
will also not count write-in votes cast for any of the withdrawn
candidates. Clinton was the only major Dem who broke with the
previously agreed upon deal for all major Dems to withdraw their
names from the primary ballot as a protest against the state breaking
the official party-sanctioned primary schedule. Former US Senator
Don Riegle (D-MI) on Monday denounced the Michigan Dem primary
as "rigged ... a scam ballot ... It reminds me of the old
Soviet Union ... It's an absolute fraud. [Clinton] very clearly
waited until others had followed through with the agreement and
then didn't follow through with it. This was not an accident.
This is a very deliberate manipulation of the ballot." Riegle
has not yet endorsed any of the Presidential candidates. Genesee
County Democratic Party Ron Duncan told the Flint Journal:
"I respect Mr. Riegle's opinion and everything he's done
[but] to me it's a choice Clinton made to stand up for Michigan
and not to bow down" to the Democratic National Committee.
Court
Judge Bobby DeLaughter on Monday afternoon ruled that Governor
Haley Barbour's (R) call for a US Senate special election on November
4, 2008 is unlawful and void, as it violates state law requiring
a non-partisan special election within
90 days of the vacancy. Instead, the judge ordered the special
election be held "on or before March 19, 2008." Attorney
General Jim Hood (D) had filed suit to challenge the timing of
Barbour's call. Barbour is likely to appeal, but the ruling stands
as valid unless it is reversed by the State Supreme Court. The
three major candidates competing in the open contest will be interim
US Senator Roger Wicker
(R), former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) and former Congressman
Ronnie Shows (D).
"As
an African American, I'm frankly insulted that the Obama campaign
would imply that we are so stupid that we would think Bill and
Hillary Clinton, who have been deeply and emotionally involved
in black issues when Barack Obama was doing something in the neighborhood
that I won't say what he was doing but he said it in his book."
Many believe Johnson was referring to Obama's admitted youthful
drug use -- although Johnson later told reporters we was only
referring to Obama's work as a community organizer. Meanwhile,
US Senators Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Claire McCaskill (D-MO) endorsed
Barack Obama over the weekend. Nelson -- who is perhaps the most
conservative Dem in the Senate -- said he endorsed Obama because
he "represents the best hope for our own political reconciliation
and a future where the cogs of government are working smoothly
for progress instead of being gummed up by partisanship. Barack
Obama will be the strongest candidate in the heartland, because
he puts solutions and consensus first and he inspires great crossover
appeal among Republicans and independents."
Mitt
Romney has regained a slim lead over John McCain in Michigan.
The polls also show Mike Huckabee third, trailing the two leaders
by several points. Romney told CNN on Sunday that Michigan is
"not do-or-die" for him, and he will continue his campaign
through the February 5 primaries regardless of Tuesday's outcome.
Romney has outspent McCain by nearly a 6:1 margin in Michigan.
In South Carolina, McCain has won the endorsements of the state's
two largest newspapers. Rudy Giuliani, meanwhile, told FOX
News Sunday that a Florida victory is "critical"
for his campaign to survive.
represents
the status quo more than John Kerry," Ogonowski told the
AP. Kerry starts the race with $6.1 million in his campaign account,
compared with just $65,000 remaining in Ogonowski's federal campaign
account. Former Gloucester City Councilor Ed O'Reilly (D), former
CIA Agent Jeff Beatty (R), former Wakefield Selectman Kevin Scott
(R) and communist political organizer William Estrada (Socialist
Workers) are already announced candidates in the US Senate race.
Race Rating: Safe DEM.
Rudy
Giuliani's top staff is now working without being paid, in a sign
of serious troubles for his campaign. A new SurveyUSA poll released
Friday also shows his Florida firewall strategy may not be working,
as Giualiani now trails John McCain by 8 points in the Sunshine
State ... Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano endorsed Barack Obama
on Friday ... US House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC), who had
previously said he would remain neutral and not endorse any Presidential
candidate in the South Carolina primary, told the New York
Times he was reconsidering his decision. Clyburn told the
newspaper he was troubled by Hillary Clinton's remarks during
the New Hampshire primary campaign concerning Martin Luther King
and the civil rights movement ... New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson
(D), who exited the Presidential race this week, said he will
not endorse any White House candidate until after the February
5 primaries ... Democrats and Republicans are both holding conventions
this weekend in Indiana's CD-7 to select nominees for the March
11 special election to replace the late Congresswoman Julia Carson
(D).
John
Doolittle (R), the highest-profile remaining target of the FBI's
Abramoff corruption probe, announced Thursday he will retire this
year. GOP leaders had strongly pressed Doolittle for months to
quit, fearing his candidacy was turning an otherwise safe GOP
seat into a likely Democratic pickup. With Doolittle out, the
already crowded GOP primary contest is likely to draw more entrants.
State Assemblyman Ted Gaines, Iraq War veteran Eric Egland, and
former Auburn Mayor Mike Holmes were previously announced Republican
candidates -- although Doolittle had denounced the trio as "weasels."
Rumor has it that Doolittle's camp will support former State Senator
Rico Oller (R) as his successor. Retired USAF officer Charlie
Brown -- who narrowly lost to Doolittle in 2006 -- will again
be the Democratic nominee. Filing closes March 12. Race rating:
GOP Favored.
Unity08
group announced Thursday it was abandoning its goal of trying
to create a 50-state, ballot-qualified party and then having its
members select a Independent, centrist Presidential nominee. In
an email sent to Unity08 supporters, the group explained FEC rules
prohibit the group from raising the money it needs to accomplish
the task. The
group says it is scaling back operations, but not entirely closing.
Also, the group said Barack Obama's message
of national unity and billionaire 
Mike
Bloomberg's possible self-funded Indy run for President have already
helped achieve what the group set out to do. "Can Unity08
take full credit for these remarkable developments? Of course
not. But ... in a larger sense, we have accomplished a major portion
of what we set out to do. But in the specifics and logistics,
we have fallen short," stated the email. The message noted
that two of the four Unity08 co-founders are now involved with
encouraging Bloomberg to run "and may have more to say about
their plans in the near future."
Bill
Richardson (D) will end his White House campaign on Thursday.
He scored 2% in Iowa and 5% this week in New Hampshire, despite
an impressive political resume. One perception problem that hampered
Richardson's campaign was the constant buzz that the former United
Nations Ambassador and former US Energy Secretary was really jockeying
for the Vice Presidential nomination. Attempting to stake out
a staunchly anti-Iraq War stance promising a swift withdrawal
also never gained him traction. The withdrawal announcement will
take place in New Mexico.
South
Carolina. As for rival Mitt Romney, his campaign acknowledged
to CNN it pulled TV spots set to air in Florida and South Carolina
in order to focus entirely upon scoring a win in Michigan over
McCain. Mike Huckabee is also on the air with a TV ad in Michigan,
as his focuses his time in South Carolina. Fred Thompson has moved
his entire staff to South Carolina, making the primary a make-or-break
contest for his campaign. Rudy Giuliani is skipping the Nevada,
Michigan and South Carolina contests to focus his efforts in Florida.
opposing
Hillary Clinton. 
McCain
returned from the political dead in New Hampshire, scoring a big
victory over the still-crowded GOP field. Mitt Romney -- the major
frontrunner in the Granite State for months -- placed second,
Mike Huckabee was third, and the rest of the GOP field lagged
far behind the leaders. The numbers: McCain - 37%, Romney - 32%,
Huckabee - 11%, Rudy Giuliani - 9%, Ron Paul - 8%, Fred Thompson
- 1%. McCain clearly had his numbers inflated by the support of
Independent voters, a category that will be shut out in nearly
all of the upcoming contests. Among Republican voters, McCain
and Romney were virtually tied. Paul focused his extensive financial
resources and time in NH, hoping for a surprise third place finish,
but instead saw that his message was simply not resonating with
GOP primary voters. McCain plans to immediately focus his efforts
in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida. In a sign he expects
his campaign to continue at least through January 29, McCain has
dispatched former Reagan Deputy Political Director Laury Gay to
Florida, and his campaign is already buying TV time in all three
states. Romney is moving his fight to Michigan and Florida --
with Michigan being a "must win" state for his campaign
to survive. Based upon the election night speeches, the telegenic
Romney looked and sounded more like a positive winner than did
the tired-looking, older McCain. Huckabee and Thompson, who did
not expect to do well in NH, will both focus on South Carolina.
Huckabee will also bring his hybrid economic populist/Evangelical
social conservative message to Michigan and Florida. Giuliani
will focus his upcoming efforts almost entirely on Florida, in
advance of the February 5 mega-primaries. 
Democratic
contest was much closer than polling and pundits had predicted.
Although all polling showed Barack Obama would score a wide victory,
he narrowly trailed Hillarly Clinton all night as results were
being tabulated. The final numbers: Clinton - 39%, Obama - 37%,
John Edwards - 17%, Bill Richardson - 5%, Dennis Kucinich - 1%.
Clinton's upset win -- in that she had gone from NH frontrunner
to trailing by double-digits in nearly all polls over the past
five days -- immediately revived her campaign. It also highlighted
the inherent flaws in polling in a highly fluid race. In the end,
it was the solid support from female voters -- a group she split
last with with Obama -- that gave Clinton her victory on Tuesday.
Edwards was openly hoping for another second place finish, but
vowed again he will "continue on until the convention"
after his distant third place finish. Richardson also vowed to
continue his campaign. Obama and Clinton will face-off in all
of the upcoming contests as national co-frontrunners. Obama is
viewed as holding an edge over Clinton in South Carolina, with
the state's large black voter base. Edwards, however, also needs
a strong showing in SC to remain relevant. By contrast, Nevada
is currently viewed as a highly competitive, three-way race between
Clinton, Obama and Edwards. Labor unions will dominate the Nevada
contest, and all three enjoy labor support. Florida is viewed
as a Clinton stronghold, then all bets are off for February 5.
Michigan will not be a contest for the Dems, as Clinton is unopposed
on the ballot in the state. Look for the Democrats to now face
a protracted nomination contest.
will
win the Democratic primary by a wide margin. Several polls now
indicate he will score a double-digit victory on Tuesday. Also,
new independent polls out Monday from South Carolina now show
Obama moving into lead over Clinton in the 10-20% range. Speaking
to CBS News on Monday, Clinton said her campaign will continue
“until the end of the process on February 5th” no
matter what happens in New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. John
Edwards campaign manager Joe Trippi told NBC on Monday that Edwards
also plans to stay in the race beyond February 5 -- regardless
of NH results -- because he wants to "hang around and wait
for the right moment" just in case Obama stumbles. Edwards
is hoping for another second place finish, put polling seems to
show him too far behind Clinton to overtake her. On the GOP side,
the race expectations are much murkier. While a resurgent John
McCain held the lead in the recent days, former frontrunner Mitt
Romney appears to be rapidly closing back in on the lead. Romney
had a good debate performance in NH on Sunday night. In large
part, Romney can also thank Obama for his resurgence as Independent
voters appear to be heavily breaking for Obama -- thus depriving
McCain of support he needs in order to score a convincing victory.
This may be going out on a limb, but I predict McCain and Romney
will finish within three points of each other -- and either man
could be the one who finishes on top. A convincing McCain victory
now appears much less likely, ensuring a highly competitive South
Carolina contest. 
Favorable
weather conditions are expected to produce a record high turnout
on Tuesday.
OHIO:
Candidate filing also closed in Ohio on Friday for the March 4
primary. In CD-2, Congressman Jean Schmidt (R) is facing two credible
primary foes -- but they will likely split the anti-Schmidt vote,
as happened in her last two primaries. In CD-7, four Republicans
are fighting for the right to replace retiring Congressman Dave
Hobson (R) in this solid GOP district. Hobson favors State Senate
Majority Whip Steve Austria as his successor. In CD-10, Congressman
Dennis Kucinich (D) is facing several aggressive, viable and well-financed
primary foes -- including a former Kucinich political protégé,
who the incumbent now blasts as "the candidate of downtown
Cleveland corporate interests." CD-15 and CD-16 also feature
crowded open seat contests. 
Huckabee
won despite being on the receiving end of weeks of negative attacks
paid for by former frontrunner Mitt Romney. The attacks did not
help Romney make up the ground he lost in recent weeks. Romney
also reportedly spent in excess of $10 million in Iowa over the
past two years, versus Huckabee's shoestring budget. The only
surprise of the night -- if it can be called a surprise -- was
Fred Thompson's third place finish. According to The Politico,
Thompson had apparently been planning a Friday withdrawal speech
-- and John McCain endorsement -- in anticipation of a weak fourth
place finish in Iowa. Instead, Thompson's Iowa finish will keep
his campaign going at least until next Tuesday's Granite State
primary. The results: Huckabee - 34%, Romney - 26%, Thompson -
13%, McCain - 13%, Ron Paul - 10%, Rudy Giuliani - 4%, Duncan
Hunter - 0%. Giuliani did not run an active campaign in Iowa.
With the campaign moving on to New Hampshire, Romney runs the
risk of a major upset at the hands of a resurgent McCain. Recent
polling and newspaper endorsements point to a close race in the
state where Romney once held a commanding lead. A New Hampshire
defeat for Romney could inflict a fatal injury upon his campaign.
Giuliani, by contrast, is banking on a Clinton-like strategy focusing
on Florida and the February 2 primaries.
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