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THE POLITICS1 ELECTION FORECAST - 2006: Over the next several days, in lieu of the normal news postings, I'll be making these state-by-state election forecasts that have been a regular feature on Politics1 since the site's launch during the 1998 election cycle. Some years I was highly accurate in calling these federal and gubernatorial contests (2000 and 2004, in particular). Then again, I've been way off the mark once in a while, too (2002). Also important to note: these are predictions based upon a combination of analyzing all the data on the various contests, and then mixing in a healthy dose of my political gut instincts gained from having worked as a professional campaign consultant on over 130 races since the mid-1980s. They are not, however, endorsements -- nor are they my hopes as to who I would like to see win these races. ALABAMA: ALASKA: ARIZONA: ARKANSAS: CALIFORNIA: COLORADO: CONNECTICUT: DELAWARE: FLORIDA: GEORGIA: HAWAII: IDAHO: ILLINOIS: INDIANA: IOWA: KANSAS: KENTUCKY: LOUISIANA: MAINE: MARYLAND: MASSACHUSETTS: MICHIGAN: MINNESOTA:
MISSOURI: MONTANA: NEBRASKA: NEVADA:
NEW
JERSEY: NEW
MEXICO: NEW
YORK: NORTH
CAROLINA: NORTH
DAKOTA: OHIO:
OREGON: PENNSYLVANIA: RHODE
ISLAND: SOUTH
CAROLINA: SOUTH
DAKOTA: TENNESSEE: TEXAS: UTAH: VERMONT: VIRGINIA: WASHINGTON: WEST
VIRGINIA: WISCONSIN: WYOMING: SOME
FINALTHOUGHTS ON THE COMING DEM TSUNAMI ...
This paragraph is a key qualifier to my 2006 predictions. I'm
obviously one of those pundits who sees an anti-Republican tsunami
sweeping the nation this year. That is why, above and beyond
any of the specific races I projected herein, I think we'll see
maybe 5 more GOP House incumbents fall to largely overlooked challengers
(bringing the Democratic score in House races to around +37).
Attribute it to President Bush, the unending Iraq quagmire, the
Abramoff-Foley-DeLay-Taft scandals, or whatever -- but there are
lots of reasons why angry voters are fed-up and going to vote
for change on November 7. |
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If a week can be a lifetime in politics, then Governor Bob Riley
(R) is very fortunate that his abysmal approval ratings of a 1-2
years ago are now ancient history. Riley earned the high negatives
after his unsuccessful attempt to push through the highest tax
hike in state history. Ousted State Supreme Court Chief Justice
Roy "The Ten Commandments Judge" Moore -- a hero to
the most hardcore of Religious Right activists -- challenged Riley
in the primary. After what initially looked to be a tough primary,
Riley rebounded strongly and defeated Moore by a wide margin.
Meanwhile, Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley (D) cruised to an equally
strong primary win over former Governor Don Siegelman. Although
the Riley-Baxley matchup once looked competitive, Riley has held
a solid lead in the polls for months. Don't look for any upset
here, as Riley will score a comfortable victory.
Unpopular
Governor Frank Murkowski (R) -- with the second lowest approval
ratings in the nation -- was routed in his primary. Embarrassingly,
Murkowski placed a distant third in the vote. Former Wasilla Mayor
Sarah Palin (R), who lost a 2002 race for Lieutenant Governor,
scored an impressive primary victory. Palin is running as a political
outsider, and has had considerable momentum since the primary.
The Democratic nominee is former two-term Governor Tony Knowles,
who lost a 2004 race for US Senator. Knowles was clearly the strongest
possible candidate the Dems could have placed into the race, and
he's steadily narrowed the gap over the past month. Former Republican
State Representative Andrew Halcro is running as an Independent,
and touting himself as the only real conservative in the race.
Both Palin and Knowles are political centrists. The final numbers
will be fairly close, due to Halcro drawing votes that normally
go to the GOP. However, Palin is a fresh, attractive candidate
who will ride into office on the crest of the same anti-Murkowski
wave that also helped her win the primary. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
register
a surprisingly strong showing in the Arizona congressional races.
CD-1: Congressman Rick Renzi (R) was hit in the closing
month with news reports he is the subject of at least two preliminary
federal corruption investigations. Wealthy attorney Ellen Simon
is running an energetic campaign and is lucky enough to be in
the right place at the right time. The combination of the national
wave, along with Renzi's own ethics problems, will help Simon
score a very unexpected victory. CD-5: Conservative firebrand
Congressman J.D. Hayworth (R) is being challenged by State Senator
and former Democratic State Chair Harry Mitchell (D). Hayworth
is another one of the Republican incumbents hit with extensive
bad press due to his ties to disgraced former lobbyist and felon
Jack Abramoff. Polls regularly show this contest as close. Mitchell
will score an upset win. CD-8: Former State Senator Gabrielle
Giffords (D) will score a third Dem gain in this open seat race.
Former State Representative Randy Graf (R) is far too conservative
for this swing district -- so much so that even retiring Congressman
Jim Kolbe (R) declined to endorse Graf after he won the crowded
primary. Graf is an avowed acolyte of radical anti-immigration
Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-CO). Giffords will win big. RESULTS:
DEMS GAIN 3 SEATS.
Mike
Huckabee (R) -- gearing up for a 2008 Presidential run -- is term-limited.
Republicans initially had high hopes for Lieutenant Governor Win
Rockefeller holding the seat. Sadly, Rockefeller became ill, withdrew
from the race in late 2005 and died earlier this year. By default,
that left Rockefeller's primary opponent -- former Congressman
and former Drug Enforcement Administration head Asa Hutchinson
-- as the only real candidate for the GOP nomination. From the
start, Hutchinson has trailed Attorney General Mike Beebe (D)
in the polls by wide margins. Several independent polls have even
placed the gap in the 20+ point range. I think Hutchinson's deficit
is less, probably in the 10-15 point range. Beebe has has run
a safe campaign and will win by a comfortable margin. Democrats
also appear poised here to sweep all of the other statewide offices
this year. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
with
virtually no response. The resourceful Schwarzenegger will defeat
the hapless Angelides, despite the big advantage Democrats traditionally
hold in California. The only question is who will be Governor
next year: Arnold the moderate or Arnold the conservative? RESULT:
GOP HOLD.
Musgrave
will survive yet another close call (and I'd like to be wrong
on this one). CD-5: State Senator Doug Lamborn -- the most
conservative of the hopefuls -- won the crowded GOP primary for
this open seat after a nasty primary contest. In so doing, Lamborn
defeated the hand-picked heir of retiring Congressman Joel Hefley
(R). Hefley, in turn, publicly announced he was so disgusted with
Lamborn's primary campaign that he would not endorse Lamborn and
urged Republicans who felt likewise to consider abstaining in
this race. Dems were hopeful that Hefley's comments would help
the candidacy of retired USAF office Jay Fawcett (D). It may,
but not nearly enough for Fawcett to win. Lamborn will win this
race by at least several points. CD-7: This is a swing
district, so highly competitive races here are not uncommon. With
Congressman Beauprez giving up this seat to run for Governor,
expect it to be especially competitive. Former State Senator Ed
Perlmutter (D) has held an advantage over former State Higher
Education Commission Chair Rick O'Donnell (R) for months. O'Donnell
-- after some early stumbles -- has gained ground on Perlmutter
in the final weeks by sharply distancing himself from President
Bush and questioning the need for the US to remain in Iraq. Perlmutter,
however, will still win this seat and score a Democratic pickup.
RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
She
will cruise to a big victory over New Haven Mayor John DeStefano
(D). RESULT: GOP HOLD.
Joe
Courtney (D) -- who lost to Simmons in 2002 -- is making a second
run for the seat. The change in the national political climate
makes the rematch much more competitive than the original race
of four years ago. This race will be very close, but look for
Simmons to narrowly win a fourth term. CD-4: The CD-4 race
is also another rematch. Ten-term Congressman Chris Shays (R)
is another supporter of the Iraq War, although he recently seems
to be waffling on his stance. Former Westport First Selectwoman
Diane Farrell (D), the '04 nominee, is making a second run after
a narrow defeat last time. She got a boost from some recent Shays
gaffes and from the withdrawal of the Green nominee from the contest.
Shays had a very long run in a very Democratic district, but I
think his time is up. Farrell will defeat Shays. CD-5:
Twelve-term Congresswoman Nancy Johnson (R) for months looked
well-positioned to hold her swing seat. Unfortunately for Johnson,
State Senator Chris Murphy (D) seems to be building momentum and
peaking at just the right time. Like Shays, Johnson will come
close -- but not close enough -- to win again. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN
2 SEATS.
Polls
all year have given the Republicans an advantage in holding the
seat being vacated by term-limited Governor Jeb Bush (R). Attorney
General Charlie Crist (R) -- a capable and affable politician
who has already won statewide office twice -- has run a very well-financed
and safe campaign. He emerged from his primary largely unscathed
(although public 
Ric
Keller (R) was once viewed as vulnerable, but he should have no
trouble defeating businessman Charlie Stuart (D). CD-9:
"The King is dead. Long live the King." Retiring 12-term
Congressman Mike Bilirakis (R) will have no trouble handing his
seat over to his son. State Representative Gus Bilirakis (R) will
defeat former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky
(D) -- a credible candidate -- by a comfortable margin. CD-11:
Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor (D) is a lock to
win Congressman Davis' open CD-11 seat by a landslide margin.
CD-13: Based upon reported spending, this is the most expensive
US House race in the nation. Auto dealer Vern Buchanan (R) spent
millions from his own deep pockets to win the primary for Congresswoman
Harris' open seat. In so doing, Buchanan left lots of hurt feelings
that remain unhealed. Those rifts -- and some gaffes and missteps
by Buchanan -- have helped wealthy bank president Christine Jennings
(D), who is also spending from her own pockets. Jennings will
score an upset and win this seat -- and set Jennings up as a top
NRCC target for 2008. CD-16: The 
Democrats
can bank this GOP seat as a "gimme," thanks to disgraced
former Congressman Mark Foley (R). Foley resigned from the House
and quit the race last month, but too late for the Republicans
to put replacement nominee Joe Negron on the ballot. Voters must
vote for Foley to vote for Negron -- so place venture capitalist
Tim Mahoney (D) in the win column. CD-22: Congressman Clay
Shaw (R) is facing the toughest fight of his political life, in
what is the second most expensive House race in the nation. State
Senator Ron Klein (D) has assailed Shaw for being too close to
President Bush. Keep in mind this was a district -- even though
redrawn in 2002 to help Shaw -- won in 2004 by John Kerry. Shaw
has countered with attacks on Klein for being "a lobbyist."
Shaw also likes to claim he will be the next Ways & Means
Committee Chair, although there is almost no chance of this coming
true (as anyone inside the Beltway could tell you the W+M Chair
will be either Republican Jim McCrery or Democrat Charlie Rangel,
depending upon which party controls the House next year). This
is the first time -- after years of failed DCCC hype that "Shaw
can be beaten" -- that I believe Shaw will actually lose.
The national political climate will claim Shaw as a victim, as
Klein will win by a close margin. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 3 SEATS.
GOVERNOR:
Governor Sonny Perdue (R) appears to be heading towards a landslide
re-election win over Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor (D). RESULT:
GOP HOLD.
GOVERNOR:
Governor Linda Lingle (R) will win in a landslide over former
State Senator Randy Iwase (R). This sets up Lingle's likely run
for US Senator in 2010. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
Butch
Otter (R) is locked in a surprisingly tight contest with newspaper
publisher Jerry Brady (D). Brady -- who was the Dem nominee four
years ago -- ran a respectable race in 2002. This year, with the
national political climate, Brady's chances are even better. Polls
in these closing days show the race virtually tied. However, the
colorful Otter will score a surprisingly narrow win in this reddest
of red states. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US
HOUSE: In national tidal wave election years in the past,
Illinois frequently produced at least one of the totally unexpected
House upsets. That said, these races are already holding attention
of pundits. CD-6: In the race for the open seat of retiring
Congressman Henry Hyde (R), State Senator Peter Roskam (R) is
locked in a tough race with disabled Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth
(D). In normal circumstances, Roskam should win handily due to
district demographics. Instead, he'll win by a relatively close
margin. CD-8: When Congresswoman Melissa Bean (D) was first
elected in 2004 by upsetting an entrenched GOP incumbent, Republicans
vowed Bean would be a one-termer. Instead, she looks positioned
to easily defeat wealthy investment banker David McSweeney (R).
CD-17: Congressman Lane Evans (D) is retiring for health
reasons. Phil Hare (D) -- Evans' Chief of Staff -- will likely
defeat former TV news anchor Andrea Lane Zinga (R) by several
points. RESULTS: NO CHANGES..
Indiana
is looking surprisingly purple this year -- in large part because
of a combination of the national political climate and high disapproval
ratings for Governor Mitch Daniels (R). CD-2: Congressman
Chris Chocola (R), a two-term incumbent, is facing a rematch this
year against attorney Joe Donnelly (D). For whatever reason, voters
here have never developed very warm feelings towards Chocola.
Polls have shown Chocola trailing for months, by varying margins.
Donnelly will win the rematch in this swing district. CD-7:
Congresswoman
Julia Carson (D) is a perennial GOP target. She runs weak campaigns,
yet somehow Carson survives each time. One October indy poll showed
Carson trailing wealthy auto dealer Eric Dickerson (R), but it
appears to be an outlier. Carson will win another close one. CD-8:
Democrats incorrectly predict the imminent electoral demise of
Congressman John Hostettler (R) every two years. A chronically
poor fundraiser, Hosteller struggled to victory in all of his
past reelection contests -- including the ones against weaker
challengers. Hostettler's luck will run out this year in his run
for a seventh term, as Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth
(D) will defeat him. CD-9: 2006 marks the third time in
a row that Congressman Mike Sodrel (R) and former Congressman
Baron Hill (D) will face-off. Hill won the 2002 race, while Sodrel
won the 2004 rematch. Sodrel has trailed in all of the indy polls
since Labor Day. It's time for the seesaw here to flip again,
as Hill will win round #3 (setting up Hill-Sodrel rematch #4 in
2008). RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 3 SEATS.
Tom
Vilsack (D), the current DLC Chair and a possible 2008 White House
hopeful, is voluntarily term-limited. The gubernatorial race appeared
to be one of the best opportunities in the nation for the GOP
to score a pickup in an otherwise gloomy electoral year. Congressman
Jim Nussle (R) is a strong candidate with a unified party behind
him -- and Nussle was able to regularly win crossover votes in
past years in his CD-1 swing district. However, Secretary of State
Chet Culver (D) -- who is sometimes viewed as a bit of a lightweight
-- also is running a fairly strong campaign. In any other year
-- with the field being fairly level -- Nussle would scrape out
a win. This year, however, Culver will win. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
Lawyers
Association President Bruce Braley (D) and restaurant chain owner
Mike Whalen (R). Both men are wealthy and have been able to help
with self-financing. With Braley, the Dems will finally reclaim
this former Dem bastion. CD-2: Nobody is paying much attention
to this district, but it could be one of the sleeper races to
watch. Congressman Jim Leach (R) -- one of the most moderate Republicans
in the House -- is facing an energetic challenge from college
professor Dave Loebsack (D), a grassroots progressive activist.
While Leach holds a major fundraising advantage, Loebsack will
keep this race surprisingly close. Leach should win, but it won't
be by much. CD-3: Republicans would really like to defeat
Congressman Leonard Boswell (D), as he's a frequent NRCC target.
The GOP initially had high hopes for State Senate President Jeff
Lamberti (R), but he has lagged far behind Boswell for months
in the polls. While the Republicans are still is warmly backing
Lamberti -- at least, in words of praise -- the NRCC cut-off his
financial support a month ago to instead concentrate on defending
embattled GOP incumbents. Boswell will survive again, and by a
fairly comfortable margin. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Kathleen
Sebelius -- a centrist DLC-style Dem -- is an anomaly: a highly
popular Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation. And,
like in 2002, Sebelius again selected a former Republican as her
Lieutenant Governor runningmate in order to take advantage of
the chronic rift here in the GOP between Religious Right conservatives
and more socially-moderate, fiscal conservatives. State Senator
Jim Bennett (R) is not a bad candidate, but he still will lose
by at least 10-points. The Dems also have the potential to unexpectedly
pickup 1-2 statewide offices, largely on the strength of Sebelius'
coattails and the ongoing GOP in-fighting. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
is
another perennial DCCC target, yet she survives (and sometimes
by rather significant margins) in this swing district. Her opponent
this year is liberal newspaper publisher John Yarmuth (D). Independent
polls since Labor Day have essentially shown the race as a virtual
tie, with Yarmuth possibly holding a very slim advantage. Despite
this, look for Northup's luck to hold up with her bucking the
national wave and winning yet another term. CD-4: In 2002,
Congressman Ken Lucas (D) held off a stiff challenge from military
veteran Geoff Davis (R). In 2004, Lucas honored his voluntary
term-limits pledge and retired -- giving Davis the opportunity
to win the seat. Now, in 2006, it is retired Congressman Lucas
challenging freshman Congressman Geoff Davis (R). Polls have shown
the lead swinging back and forth between the two men. This race
is close: so close that either man stands a nearly equal chance
of winning. But, since I have to make the call, I'll say Davis
survives by the narrowest of margins. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Louisiana
state law, an open congressional primary involving candidates
from all parties will be held on November 7. If no one candidate
wins a majority of the vote, then the top finishers (regardless
of party) will advance to a December run-off. CD-2. Congressman
Bill Jefferson (D) is in big trouble. The FBI raided Jefferson's
New Orleans home and found over $90,000 cash from purported bribes
hidden in the freezer. The FBI also raided Jefferson's Capitol
Hill office and a top Jefferson aide already pled guilty to helping
facilitate those bribes -- so it's only a matter of time before
Jefferson is indicted. Based upon all of this, the state Democratic
Party endorsed State Representative Karen Carter (D) in her race
against Jefferson. In addition to Carter, 11 others are also running.
Carter will win this race -- the only question is whether she
does it outright in the primary (unlikely) or in the run-off.
CD-3: Freshman Congressman Charlie Melancon (D) is facing an aggressive
fight rematch from State Senator Craig Romero (R), an '04 hopeful
who narrowly missed making the run-off. Despite the challenge,
Melancon will win a second term. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
GOVERNOR:
Governor John Baldacci (D) may hold a fairly low approval rating,
but he will still win a re-election by a comfortable plurality.
State Senator Chandler Woodcock (R) -- who is too conservative
to be truly competitive in this center-left state -- will limp
in at a distant second place. Interestingly, both State Representative
Barbara Merrill (Independent) and radio talk show host Pat LaMarche
(Green) appear headed to respectable double-digit finishes. RESULT:
DEM HOLD.
Baltimore
Mayor Martin O'Malley (D) is a strong contender and has run a
decent campaign. Some indy polls in recent months showed Ehrlich
closing the gap (and then losing ground again), but not one has
shown him leading O'Malley. Look for O'Malley to win by at least
several points. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
just
one term, Governor Mitt Romney (R) did not seek re-election in
order to concentrate on laying the groundwork for a 2008 Presidential
run. Former US Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick won the
competitive Democratic primary with surprising ease, and has held
an solid advantage ever since. Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey
(R) has lagged far behind, seemingly having trouble crossing the
rather low 30% threshold in polls. Wealthy Republican businessman
Christy Mihos was pressured out of the GOP contest, so he is running
instead as an Independent -- and further hurting Healey by siphoning
away some GOP votes. Patrick will win by a very big margin, making
him the state's first ever African-American Governor and the first
Democrat to win a gubernatorial race here since 1986. RESULT:
DEM GAIN.
billionaire
Amway executive Dick DeVos (R) launched his campaign last year
against Governor Jennifer Granholm (D), polls showed the incumbent
was highly vulnerable. A weak state economy seemed to further
hurt Granholm. However, the national anti-Republican wave and
an aggressive campaign by the incumbent propelled her back into
a comfortable lead in recent weeks. Despite high early GOP hopes
here, Granholm will win a second term -- likely by at least 10-points.
RESULT: DEM HOLD.
GOVERNOR:
Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) looked strong and his proclaimed independent
streak seemed to help him distance himself from the national GOP
in this Dem-leaning state. Further, the Democrats nominated Attorney
General Mike Hatch, an unexciting candidate who has run twice
before for Governor. Respected former State Finance Commissioner
Peter Hutchinson (Independence) -- who was also an advisor to
Governor Jesse Ventura (Independence) -- is also running. The
national Democratic wave will claim Pawlenty as another one of
the many GOP victims, but the final margin will be rather close.
This will also end any talk of Pawlenty as a possible candidate
for President or VP in 2008. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US
SENATE: US Senator Mark Dayton (D), somewhat of a political
gadfly, is not seeking a second term. Republicans quickly proclaimed
Congressman Mark Kennedy (R) as the frontrunner for the open seat
and touted him as the "strongest" shot in the nation
for the GOP to score a pickup in the Senate. Well, that was all
a long time ago. The Democrats quickly unified behind Hennepin
County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) and she roared into a solid
lead. Kennedy is simply too conservative and too pro-Bush to win
this seat in the current political climate. In fact, Kennedy is
trailing Klobuchar by a rather wide margin. Klobuchar will easily
keep this seat in Democratic hands. RESULT: DEM HOLD. 
close
House races here, any of which could go either way. CD-1:
Congressman Gil Gutknecht (R) is facing a surprisingly aggressive
challenge from military veteran and teacher Tim Walz (D). This
could be one of the sleeper races if the national wave is of tsunami
proportions. I'm going out on a limb here, but I predict Walz
will narrowly win defeat Gutknecht in a major upset. CD-2:
Retired FBI Agent Coleen Rowley (D) was highly touted by the DCCC
against Congressman John Kline (R) -- but then Rowley proceeded
to run a bumbling campaign for months. With some summer staffing
changes, Rowley seems to finally have her act together. This race
will be much closer than anyone thinks, but Kline will survive.
CD-5: This open seat is solidly Democratic, so State Representative
Keith Ellison (D) is a lock to win -- and to become the first
Muslim to serve in Congress. CD-6: State Senator Michelle
Bachmann (R) and child safety advocate Patty Wetterling (D) are
locked in a very competitive race for the seat being vacated by
Congressman Kennedy. Bachmann is one of the most socially conservative
members of the state legislature, but this does not seem to be
hurting her (as Kennedy was also very conservative). Wetterling
is a quality candidate with a compelling personal story, and has
a real shot here. Polls show the lead shifting back and forth.
Look for Bachmann to score a narrow win. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1
SEAT.
MISSISSIPPI:
held
by US Senator Jim Talent (R) has a rather volatile recent electoral
history. In 2000, incumbent John Ashcroft (R) lost to deceased
Governor Mel Carnahan (D). As promised, the Governor appointed
Carnahan's widow to serve the two-year term. In 2002, Talent ousted
Carnahan. Further, this is a state highy-prone historically to
being influenced by national trends. This year, look for the Democrats
to reclaim the seat with a victory by State Auditor Claire McCaskill
(D). McCaskill -- just two years after narrowly losing the 2004
gubernatorial race -- is running a smart campaign. She has also
exploited Talent's weaknesses, particularly on issues like his
waffling opposition to stem cell research. McCaskill will give
the Dems one of the key seats they need for control of the Senate.
RESULT: DEM GAIN.
SENATE:
US Senator Conrad Burns (R) has spent the 2006 campaign dogged
by news reports of serious corruption allegations involving his
close ties to disgraced lobbyist and felon Jack Abramoff. Adding
to Burns' problems is his propensity to repeatedly shoot himself
in the foot with a series of embarrassing verbal gaffes. Combined
with the national wave and recent Democratic gains in Montana
(the Dems captured the Governorship and control of the state legislature
in 2004), this spells defeat for Burns. State Senate President
Jon Tester (D) is an unapologetic prairie populist. Burns may
correctly label Tester "a liberal" but it won't matter
because Tester will still win by several points. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
Democrats
are fielding a strong slate of candidates for all three of Nebraska's
US House seats. Former Lieutenant Governor Maxine Moul (D) in
CD-1 and former Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce Director Jim
Esch (D) in CD-2 will both come close in their runs against GOP
incumbents. Both Dems have run strong enough races to require
the national Republicans to recently divert some dwindling funds
to defending these normally safe seats. CD-3: The race
to watch in Nebraska is the contest for Congressman Osborne's
open seat. State Senator Adrian Smith (R) holds very fiscally
conservative views -- including his opposition to federal farm
subsidy programs and his free-trade views. Whether you agree or
disagree with Smith's stances (and they are one of the reasons
the conservative Club for Growth is strongly backing him), the
views are hurting him significantly here. Rancher Scott Kleeb
(D) is a telegenic candidate who is is effectively exploiting
Smith's weaknesses with the district's huge agricultural base.
Kleeb will score a shocking upset for the Dems in this solidly
GOP district. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Guinn
(R) is term-limited. Guinn's longtime nemesis within the Nevada
GOP -- Congressman Jim Gibbons -- is the Republican nominee to
succeed him. That explains why Guinn frequently bad-mouths Gibbons
to the media and has declined to endorse Gibbons in the gubernatorial
race against State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus (D). Titus
is not a very strong candidate. She certainly is more liberal
than the breed of past Democrats who have won major statewide
races in Nevada. Fortunately for Titus, Gibbons is a highly flawed
candidate has has to deal with with last-minute scandals in the
closing days. First is the ongoing "he said"/"she
said" soap opera over the late night incident just days ago
in a casino hotel parking lot with a waitress. The woman called
911 and claimed Gibbons tried to sexually assault her. Gibbons
said they both had been drinking, but he only helped grab her
to stop he from falling when she tripped in the parking lot. A
casino parking lot videotape has gone missing. The second problem
are statewide TV news reports that the anti-illegal immigration
Gibbons knowingly had an illegal alien working for several years
in his household -- and then tried to cover it up when he feared
the story would leak. These problems suggest Titus will score
a narrow win -- not because of anything she is doing, so much
as it is the public damage Gibbons is inflicting on himself in
these final days. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
NEW
HAMPSHIRE:
US
SENATE: Congressman Bob Menendez (D) was appointed to the
US Senate vacancy a year ago, and has struggled ever since to
hold his seat against hard-charging State Senator Tom Kean Jr.
(R). Kean has blasted Menendez for months for various purported
ethics problems. In return, Menendez blasted Kean -- a GOP centrist
-- for his ties to the unpopular Republican leadership in DC.
The lead has swung back and forth between the two men for months.
While Menendez may be a weak candidate, the overall Democratic
propensities of the Garden State should help Menendez win a full-term
in the Senate by a narrow margin. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
GOVERNOR:
Governor Bill Richardson (D) -- a likely 2008 White House candidate
-- will cruise to a landslide win over former State GOP Chair
John Dendahl. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
King
appears likely to survive. CD-11: New York City Councilwoman
Yvette Clarke (D) is a safe bet to win this open seat, as the
September primary was the only real fight here. CD-19:
Congresswoman Sue Kelly (R) is facing a very strong challenge
from former Ulster County Legislator and 1970s rock band member
John Hall (D). Hall has proven to be a much tougher foe than Kelly
seems to have anticipated, and polls show this race is very close.
This one is a coin toss, but I'll call it for Hall in an upset.
CD-20: The nasty and personal contest between Congressman
John Sweeney (R) and attorney Kirsten Gillibrand (D) has been
on the national radar for months. Several news reports hinted
that Governor Pataki and his GOP allies are quietly helping the
Dem, as Sweeney is one of Pataki's leading critics within the
NY Republican Party. Gillibrand is an attractive candidate, but
the district's demographics heavily favor Sweeney -- so much so
that it should allow Sweeney to survive the challenge. CD-24:
Congressman Sherwood Boehlert (R) -- a prototypical RINO representing
a swing district -- is retiring. 
State
Senator Ray Meier (R) and Oneida County District Attorney Mike
Arcuri (D) are facing-off for the open seat. Meier is much more
conservative than Boehlert, so he'll be a harder sell for the
GOP in this center-left district. Dems have had their eye on this
seat for years, waiting for Boehlert's retirement to place it
into play. Look for Arcuri to score a Dem pickup. CD-26:
Congressman Tom Reynolds (R) -- the current NRCC Chair -- is facing
a very tough rematch against wealthy retired industrialist and
former Republican Jack Davis (D). Reynolds' apparent knowledge
of and cover-up of the Mark Foley congressional page sex scandal
-- possibly for nearly a year before the scandal publicly broke
-- put the incumbent on the defensive. In fact, it appears Reynolds
last year convinced Foley to seek re-election in 2006 when Foley
was thinking of retiring, and then got Foley to donate $100,000
to the NRCC. This race could go either way, despite the district's
natural Republican lean, and polls have shown the lead swinging
back and forth between the two men. Chalk up Reynolds as another
victim of the wave, as Davis will score a narrow win (probably
making Davis the oldest incoming freshman in the next Congress).
CD-29: Democrats initially had high hopes for the candidacy
of retired Navy officer Eric Massa (D) against first-term Congressman
Randy Kuhl (R). Massa served as an aide to General Wes Clark when
Clark was the NATO Supreme Allied Commander in the 1990s. Massa's
campaign, however, made several stumbles and generally under-performed.
That should enable Kuhl to survive in this very bad year for New
York Republicans. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 3 SEATS.
Term-limited
Governor Bob Taft (R) pled guilty last year in a plea bargain
to misdemeanor corruption charges, yet remained in office despite
numerous calls for his resignation. In response, Ohio voters have
given Taft possibly the highest negative rating ever recorded
for a sitting Governor (at one point earlier this year, an independent
poll showed only a dismal 9% of residents approved of Taft's overall
performance). Fair or not, the "Taft taint" has poisoned
nearly everyone and anyone in the Ohio Republican Party who is
locked in a competitive race this year. Secretary of State Ken
Blackwell (R) and Congressman Ted Strickland (D) are seeking the
open seat. Blackwell is a social conservative who defeated a Taft
ally in the GOP primary. Strickland is a moderate, pro-gun Democrat.
Blackwell has trailed Strickland by double-digits for months,
prompting Blackwell to act more desperate and, in turn, lose even
more support. 
Strickland
will win in a landslide -- and carry near all of the statewide
Democratic slate to victory on his coattails. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
being
challenged by Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley (D). The
two men first met in the 2000 race, which Chabot won. Chabot will
lose the rematch for the same reason as DeWine: because he's an
Ohio Republican in a swing district. CD-2: Dems would love
to oust Congresswoman Jean Schmidt (R), who earned their enmity
with her nasty House floor remarks last year accusing decorated
Korean War veteran and Congressman John Murtha (D-PA) of "cut
and run" cowardice. This district is overwhelmingly Republican,
yet Schmidt is locked in a close fight with physician Victoria
Wulsin (D). In part, this is because many Republicans here have
also not warmed to Schmidt. A month ago, I'd have called this
race for Schmidt. However, several independent polls show Wulsin
has momentum and a slight lead. Look for Wulsin to score a major
upset, even though she may well be a one-termer because of the
district's demographics. CD-3: Two-term Congressman Mike
Turner (R) is being challenged by 
former
Assistant US Attorney Dick Chema (D). Place this one on the list
of possible sleepers, but Turner should win. CD-4: State
Senator Jim Jordan (R) is expected to defeat former Lima Law Director
Rick Siferd (D) by a comfortable margin, in the race for this
open GOP seat. CD-6: State Senator Charlie Wilson (D) will
cruise to a big win over State House Speaker Pro Tem Chuck Blasdel
(D) for Congressman Strickland's open seat. CD-12: Former
one-term Congressman Bob Shamansky (D) is surprisingly giving
Congressman Pat Tiberi (R) a real run for his money. Shamansky
hasn't held elective office in over 20 years, but the Iraq War
is resonating with voters as a solid issue for him. Tiberi will
win, but it won't be an impressive win. CD-13: Former State
Representative Betty Sutton (D) is headed to a surprisingly easy
victory over Lorain Mayor Craig Fultin (R) for Congressman Brown's
open seat. At one point, this open seat was 
high
on the NRCC radar. CD-15: Congresswoman Deborah Pryce (R)
has been a rising star in the House Republican Leadership. Now
that status -- and her past support for partially privatizing
Social Security -- are coming back to hurt her. Franklin County
Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) is a running a very aggressive,
in-your-face campaign that appears likely to topple Pryce. The
incumbent has fought back with a real intensity, trying to bolster
her credentials as a political independent, but Kilroy will win
this race. CD-18: Congressman Bob Ney (R), who recently
pled guilty to federal felony corruption charges, quit his race
for re-election here. Ney and other Republican leaders quickly
recruited State Senator Joy Padgett (R) -- a close Taft ally --
as the replacement GOP nominee. Dover Law Director and hotel developer
Zach Space (D) has run a creative, energetic campaign. He may
be too liberal to win this GOP district in your average year,
but this isn't an average year. Even the NRCC has canceled any
further expenditures on behalf of Padgett, because she is too
far behind in both public and internal polls. Space will win by
at least several points. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 4 SEATS (and maybe
more).
OKLAHOMA:
Ted
Kulongoski (D) holds lukewarm approval ratings, yet he'll still
win a second term thanks to a relatively weak GOP nominee. Former
Portland School Board Member Ron Saxton (R) -- who was a pro-choice
GOP centrist in his 2002 primary run for Governor -- is now repackaged
as a pro-life conservative. Just as the unions are fairly tepid
in their support for the centrist Kulongoski, social conservatives
are equally wary of Saxton. Adding to Saxton's woes is the candidacy
of Mary Starrett (Constitution), a popular retired TV news anchor
and pro-life activist. It won't be a convincing win for Kulongoski,
but a win is still a win. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
day
in the polls was when he launched his campaign last year. It went
all downhill from there. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
Former
Congressional aide and hospital lobbyist Jason Altmire (D) is
running an aggressive campaign, and recent indy polls show him
within reach of Hart. Altmire appears to have the momentum in
these final days, and he'll come very close, but look for Hart
to survive. CD-6: Congressman Jim Gerlach (R) -- a top
Dem target -- represents a swing district won by Kerry in 2004.
This year he is 
facing
a rematch with attorney Lois Murphy (D), who lost by 2-points
last time. The national demographics this year are different --
and more favorable -- for Murphy. Look for her to reverse the
outcome of the '04 race. CD-7: This is an easy call: Congressman
Curt Weldon (R) is a sure-thing goner. Weldon was already locked
in a very tough battle against retired Navy Admiral Joe Sestak
(D) -- and that was before the FBI conducted multiple raids on
several locations tied to Weldon's family and associates last
month related to corruption allegations. Sestak will win handily.
CD-8: Freshman Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick (R) seems an
unlikely fit for this district, as he's a conservative Republican
representing a very moderate constituency (Kerry defeated Bush
here by 3-points in 2004). This seat was represented for years
by a GOP centrist, so voters here are certainly very willing to
send a Republican for Congress. Iraq War veteran and attorney
Patrick Murphy (D) is a top-notch candidate for this seat. However,
Fitzpatrick has run a good campaign. 
Recent
polls have given the incumbent a slight edge, and this seat could
easily go either way. Fitzpatrick will scrape out a very narrow
win. CD-10: Scandal -- not any national wave -- is the
cause of the political demise of Congressman Don Sherwood (R).
After winning election as a "family values" conservative,
the married Sherwood was revealed as a phony when his mistress
called police to report Sherwood tried to strangle her after an
argument. When she failed to cooperate with the police, the police
were unable to pursue criminal charges against Sherwood. On Friday
the AP reported why: Sherwood had secretly entered last year into
a written settlement agreement with the mistress in which he will
pay he $500,000 in installment payments in exchange for her silence.
He's paid over half so far, so she won't be talking anytime before
Election Day. After Election Day nobody will care, as Sherwood
will no longer be in Congress. Naval Reserve officer and college
professor Chris Carney (D) is going to destroy Sherwood by a wide
margin. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 3 SEATS.
GOVERNOR:
If the Dems can hold the governorship in a solid red state like
Kansas, then it is only fair that the Republicans can hold the
governorship in a solid blue state like Rhode Island. Governor
Don Carcieri (R) is possibly "too conservative" for
many voters. However, in a state where political corruption unfortunately
seems de rigueur, Carcieri is seemingly untouched by scandal.
For many voters, that may be reason enough to re-elect him. For
the record, Lieutenant Governor Charlie Fogarty (D) is a career
public servant who also appears to be an honest, decent guy. Carcieri,
however, will win by several points. 
RESULT:
GOP HOLD.
GOVERNOR:
Governor Mark Sanford (R) is an incumbent with a long list of
enemies within his own party and the state legislature. They dislike
his uncompromising obstinacy and loose cannon behavior. Although
some prominent Republicans are openly backing State Senator Tommy
Moore (D), Sanford will still easily win a second term. RESULT:
GOP HOLD.
Phil
Bredesen (D) is a good fit for Tennessee. He'll win a second term
by a huge margin over State Senator Jim Bryson (R). RESULT: DEM
HOLD.
probably
the most colorful gubernatorial contest in the nation, featuring
four viable candidates. Governor Rick Perry (R) is being seriously
challenged by former Congressman Chris Bell (D), State Comptroller
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (Independent) and outspoken musician/author
Kinky Friedman (Independent). All three challengers are scoring
in the double-digits in indy polls. Perry, meanwhile, is mired
around the 40% mark -- meaning he could have been in trouble in
a head-to-head contest. Since none of the challengers were willing
to exit in favor of a single "anti-Perry" unity candidate,
Perry will win a plurality victory. Bell will finish second (something
that was once in doubt). RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US
HOUSE: CD-17: Congressman Chet Edwards (D) will have
to fight hard for victory every two years in his gerrymandered,
conservative district. Edwards is a conservative "Blue Dog
Democrat" backed by groups like the US Chamber of Commerce,
NFIB and the Farm Bureau that rarely back Democrats. Iraq War
veteran Van Taylor (R) is a credible candidate, but Edwards will
win again (possibly by a margin in excess of 10-points). CD-22:
Resigned House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R) will see a Democrat
win his open seat due to his own bungled attempt to withdraw from
the race. When a judge vetoed DeLay's attempt to let the GOP replace
him on the November ballot, he withdrew his name entirely. In
turn, Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) is running
as a write-in candidate and is backed by the NRCC. Two other Republicans
are also running as write-in candidates. Former Congressman Nick
Lampson (D) -- a victim of DeLay's 2004 redistricting plan in
a nearby district -- will win this seat. CD-23: Democrats would
like to oust Congressman Henry Bonilla (R), but I don't see it
happening. Bonilla will win another term, either on Tuesday or
in the December run-off (if needed). RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
RESULT:
GOP HOLD.
Allen
started being Allen. The stupid Macaca has ineptly spun by his
own campaign from a minor problem into a major crisis. More bad
press followed, including Allen's angry and flip-flopping reaction
to the reports (which he since acknowledged) that his mother's
family is Jewish. Former Reagan Administration Navy Secretary
and bestselling author Jim Webb (D) -- who switched parties to
make the race -- has proven to be an aggressive challenger. Even
at Allen's worst moments, Webb moved into a virtual tie with Allen
but did not pass him. In many ways, these numbers were like those
from last year's Kaine-Kilgore gubernatorial race in which the
Republican held an ever-dwindling advantage until near the very
end. Webb seems to be peaking at the right time, and the national
wave should also benefit him. Webb will win by the narrowest of
margins. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
looks
positioned to score a convincing win for a second term. RESULT:
DEM HOLD.
Robert
C. Byrd (D) first was elected to Congress in 1952. Now, more than
five decades later, he will easily win yet another term in DC.
Wealthy businessman and former State GOP Chair John Raese -- who
espouses elimination of both the federal minimum wage and air
pollution controls -- will lose his third statewide campaign.
RESULT: DEM HOLD.
Jim
Doyle (D) is facing an aggressive challenge from four-term Congressman
Mark Green (R). Doyle's poll numbers have been fairly lackluster,
but still he always managed to hold an advantage over Green. Doyle
likely won't win big -- but he'll still win. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
will
also win in a landslide -- the only real question is whether Freudenthal's
landslide will be higher than Thomas' landslide. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
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